If Aaron Rodgers gets his wish and doesn't return to the Packers in 2021 he'll be the first reigning MVP in NFL history to not return to his team while not retiring (assuming he doesn't retire).
This has turned into an interesting stalemate.
Now, I'm pretty sure that money isn't the major factor in regard to Rodgers wanting out. It was well known that he wasn't happy with the Packers trading up to acquire Jordan Love, his presumed replacement, rather than getting him another weapon. But, Rodgers is currently the fifth highest paid player in the league behind Mahomes, Prescott, Watson, and Wilson; so, coming off an MVP season is a good time to push for more money - especially because Rodgers is slated to make about the same amount of money as Jared Goff.
That said, the complexities of NFL contracts regarding salaries, guarantees, and bonuses are giving both sides leverage and difficulties.
The one way that I see this playing out as a win for Rodgers is if the Packers pack it in (hehe) and trade him. Rodgers gets out and he only takes the financial hits of sitting out the mandatory minicamp and, presumably, training camp. The Packers would open up $16 million in cap space by unloading his salary to another team; but, the Packers would have to eat $21 million in dead cap for 2021 and over $17 million in dead cap in 2022. Namely, the Packers have very little reason to want to unload him now because they'll be paying $38 million over the next two years to have him play somewhere else.
This also isn't necessarily going to be perfect for Rodgers because he doesn't have a no-trade clause. There's almost no imaginable way that the Packers will trade him to another NFC team. There's a lot of speculation that he wants to go to the Broncos; but, the Packers could trade him to a dumpster fire like the Texans if they wanted to.
A trade would also be a dangerous move for the Packers front office. It's not a good look to trade your MVP signal caller because he hates you too much to work with you. It's even worse if Jordan Love doesn't work out and the trade results in a drop from a season with a conference championship appearance to missing the playoffs.
The Packers have a couple of winning scenarios.
The Packers could call the bluff. If Rodgers caves in they get business as planned for another season. If Rodgers refuses (or retires) to play he'll lose his entire compensation for 2021 plus the fines accumulated for sitting out the offseason - in this case Rodgers will lose over $35 million and the Packers gain that all back. What's more, if Jordan Love fails, the Packers have an excuse; if he succeeds, the Packers front office looks like a ton of geniuses.
My personal guess is that the end to all of the drama is going to be Rodgers sucking it up and playing in Green Bay for one more season. Rodgers is rich. He's rich enough that the $93,000 fine for skipping minicamp clearly didn't bother him. $35 million is a different story.
I'm guessing that all sides are aware of what each opinion would mean. It's basically a multi-million dollar game of chicken.