Oil price whiplashes to continue for quite some time.

in oil •  3 years ago 

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An important part of the background to the coming decade or so in this article by John Tamny from RealClearMarkets.

The dilemma the world is facing now and will do for some time is that the oil price at which exploitation of new recoverable reserves makes economic sense is so high that it destroys demand and makes a lot of economic activity unviable but the price at which that activity makes sense is one that makes getting the oil it requires out of the ground unprofitable. The result is a series of switchback surges and crashes in the price of oil since conventional production (NB NOT all production) peaked in 2007. This lack of stability is worse than either a stable high price or a stable low price would be, because in either of those scenarios people would know what to expect and could make medium term plans accordingly. In particular, companies are not going to make the massive capital investments required to develop and bring in new fields in places like deep water or the Arctic unless they know the price will stay at a level that brings a decent return on that investment for a long enough period. So we will continue to see both dramatic spikes and equally spectacular crashes in the oil price for some time yet.

Note. This is NOT because of Putin's war on Ukraine (that is a magnifying factor at most). It is NOT because of US government policy - that only affects the US and can't be the reason why there is record low investment in new fields in places like the Middle East, Nigeria, Brazil, Russia, Africa - you know all those places that are controlled by the US Congress and executive branch. Again, it's a very marginal contributor. It ISN'T because there is a shortage of oil because about 60%+ of all of the oil that has ever existed is still there waiting to be recovered - the problem is it is now the less accessible or lower quality oil that needs a higher price to be viable. Eventually this will sort itself out, one way or the other (the key is technology not politics) but it's going to be very interesting until it does and it will take some time.

PS. One of the most important news items recently was Mexico's announcement that it is going to phase out all oil exports from 2023. All Mexican oil will now be consumed domestically. Expect more of this kind of thing going forward.

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