Entering and possibly exiting the fourth wave?

in pandemic •  3 years ago 

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Rather than thinking of the delta variant as something uniquely new and scary, it may be more constructive to simply describe what we are going through as a "Fourth Wave" of COVID-19 outbreaks.

The CDC graph shows weekly estimates of deaths involving COVID-19. The top line shows the total, with the lower lines showing deaths by age (which are still extremely rare among children).

Media headlines usually focus on new cases rather than deaths. But a much smaller percentage of cases end in death than a year ago because (1) the unvaccinated are relatively young, (2) rare breakthrough cases in vaccinated people are relatively mild, and (3) there are improved treatment procedures and drugs.

Worldometer reports the seven-day average of daily deaths recently dipped from 1401 on September 2 to 1272 on September 9, while new cases declined from 166,522 to 146,903. The CDC graph reproduced here looks as though new weekly fatalities might possibly have peaked for this fourth wave, though the newest figures are "provisional" because they may later be revised to include unreported deaths.

Using a 14-day average rather than 7, The New York Times reports that global deaths were down 10% by September 9, and cases down 12%.

Comparing the number of recent deaths to previous peaks is certainly not cheerful national or international news. However, recent under-reported death statistics for the delta variant seem far less novel (compared with past waves) and comparatively less ominous than sensational headlines about cases often imply.

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