RE: Is this play is good (middle stack, flop all in play)?

You are viewing a single comment's thread from:

Is this play is good (middle stack, flop all in play)?

in poker •  7 years ago 

Thanks for your comment!

But, I think that this play is reasonable.
If he had top hit, I had about 6 outs(any A, Q).

If he call, I would win 24% (76% lose).

EV( if he called )

  • lose: -13000 * 0.76 = -9880
  • win: 35000 * 0.24 = 8400

EV = -1480

Fold Equity( likelihood that opponent folds * gain in equity if opponent(s) fold )

  • If likelihood that opponent folds is 20%
    FE is 9000 * 0.20 = 1800 => EV = 1800 - 1480 * 0.80 = 616

  • If likelihood that opponent folds is 15%
    FE is 9000 * 0.15 = 1350 => EV = 1350 - 1480 * 0.85 = 92

  • If likelihood that opponent folds is 12%
    FE is 9000 * 0.12 = 1080 => EV = 1080 - 1480 * 0.88 = -222

If likelihood that he folds is over about 15%, this play is reasonable.
Is this right?

And, his likelihood of fold may be over about 15% because he afraid of my over pair.
He might think that he didn't want to die his one pair.

Authors get paid when people like you upvote their post.
If you enjoyed what you read here, create your account today and start earning FREE STEEM!