Yeah, I know, France... Who cares? Well... You should! Here is your chance to keep up with the upcoming French presidential election.

After Brexit, after Trump... The far right gaining access to the top political office in Paris? That looks now very highly possible, and here is why.

                                              François Fillon at the Elysee palace, with his British-born wife Penelope.

There were until very recently only three really relevant persons/movements in the race:

• the Socialist Party, which, despite its infighting and fragmentation, managed to pulled out of his hat Benoît Hamon during the primaries;
• Marine Le Pen, the racist leader of the far right Front National;
• and François Fillon, who won the primaries of the "normal" right Les Republicains party.

                                        

     From far left to far right: JL Melenchon/Benoît Hamon/Emmanuel Macron/François Fillon/Marine Le Pen

It looked like François Fillon had a boulevard: he was close enough from the far right to attract its voters without losing the vote of the centrists voters.

However, all of this has changed since the famous French newspaper Le Canard Enchaîné broke the news that he had hired his wife Penelope as an assistant during his term as member of parliament for something approaching 900 000 € to do basically... nothing at all! In France it's called an "emploi fictif" (a fake job) and that's a career-stopping scandal.

Translation: "P. Fillon defends herself: / Penelope: "I have done nothing" The judge: "It's exactly where is the issue."

Even worse... It was discovered also that he hired his own sons as legal assistants, even though they did not yet have their law degree! It's a proper mess, a definite quagmire, and even if Fillon denies any wrongdoing, he will have a tough time proving it false and regaining the confidence of the voters. His primary campaign was basically built upon his image of a squeaky clean politician who had nothing to reproach himself.

So, what now? Well, two choices:

• Fillon is charged and must abandon the presidential election. That would leave Alain Juppé, who was second in the primaries, as the next best man for the Les Republicains party;
• Fillon escapes prosecution by I-don't-know-which-miracle and keeps challenging Le Pen and Hamon... Who will have a field time throwing the scandal in his face again and again!

In all cases, that smells really bad for the favourite of the Presidential race, and very good for the far right, who will probably gain a handful of disappointed votes from that.

Vote intentions at the end of January 2017 for the first round (upper part of the picture) and the second round (lower part).

The biggest surprise could be from Emmanuel Macron, the former Socialist minister who set up his own political party in a bid to become president. Neither right nor left, he defines himself as anti-system, but that may just be a ploy to implement a neo-liberal policy.

Sources:

http://www.lemonde.fr/affaire-penelope-fillon/article/2017/01/31/ce-que-l-on-sait-de-l-affaire-fillon_5072423_5070021.html

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/02/francois-fillon-inquiry-widens-to-look-at-jobs-given-to-his-children