The French Election

The French election is getting closer and closer, so I thought I would throw my 2 cents in on the matter.

Candidates

Benoit Hamon

My reading of the situation is that I doubt Hamon will have good chances, I think he will have a lot of problems with that the current president is so unpopular, this will probably work very much against Hamon, I do not expect to see Hamon getting to the second round.

Francois Fillon

If Fillon hadn't been involved in the Penelopegate, I would think he had a very good chance of winning the French election, I do however have no real clue as to how much damage the scandal has done to him, he could still be a viable candidate, it would be fairly surprising if he hadn't been scathed to much and gets to the second round.

Marine Le Pen

Marine Le Pen is the one leading the election right now, and I would definitely expect to see Le Pen in the second round.

Emmanuel Macron

This must be the one that according to the mainstream media will be the big chance to stop Le Pen taking the presidency, but will this be possible, Macron is a centrist technocrate who is pro-EU, the centrist part is probably the only thing that is not super hated about that, so how exactly will he make a stance against what seems like the most popular politician in France ?
The pro-EU could slaughter him, but he probably will get to the second round.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Jean-Luc has been involved with the left for the a long time, and this is his second time running for president, last election he got about 11%,
I do not see how he would do better than 11% this election.
He stands as the candidate for a movement he started himself.

The Second Round.

When we get to the second round, I expect we have Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron.

Marine Le Pen to me is a slight favorite 2% perhaps.