This video is going around. It is old it is from 2021. Paxton lied and was actually talking about mail-in ballot applications, not the actual completed ballots. Harris county wanted to send out mail-in ballots due to the coronavirus pandemic, but Paxton blocked it via the courts. Texas will eventually go blue, but I think Paxton was probably fluffing Bannon's listeners here to stoke the conspiracy theories about mail-in voting.
One reason Trump is going out of his way to defend Paxton is because Paxton was one of his staunchest advocates of challenging the 2020 election.
When Texas does actually go blue our presidential politics aren't going to be the same ever again.
At the very least the Republican party will substantially need to change. But that's probably the case just from the aging of the electorate too.