Donald, The Bully

Some context: I originally wrote this text for a newspaper in April 2017, in the aftermath of Trump's rapid use of military of force against Syria and dispatch of an aircraft carrier to the Korean sea. The newspaper in question decided not to publish the op-ed... So here it goes!

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As the commander in chief of the most powerful military in the world, Donald Trump behaves like a high school bully. Outcast and not cherished by most in the beginning, Donald Trump’s newfound powers are making him popular with the cool kids. Just like any school bully in searching for self-affirmation, he started slowly, but soon was flexing his muscles all around the playground. Syria, Afghanistan, and now North Korea: It seems that he and his clique believe that coercive measures and threats of force are the way forward to tackle every issue affecting US security – including nuclear proliferation. Nevertheless, they are wrong. Soon, Pyongyang will become used to the aircraft carrier stationed on their shores. After that, it will not take long until Trump’s bravado is perceived as just as what it is: an empty and immature bluff.

Since the recent attack in Syria, Donald has capitalized on his decision to use of force. Internally, it brought him the political support of both democrats and republicans who were annoyed by the ‘let’s get along with Russia’ talk. Internationally, its impacts were twofold. On one hand, the same Western countries that have been flooded with Syrian and Libyan refugees over the last years applauded the military action. On the other hand, the rest of the world was not as delighted. Latin Americans, Africans and Middle Easterns, each with their own history of American interventionism, tend to condemn unilateralism and the use of military force outside the UN’s framework. But who cares to what these nerds and weirdos, who insist on sharing the international playground with the cool kids, have to say? Definitely not Trump, the bully.

Like most high school wannabes, Trump struggles to gain the admiration of his peers. Although a double-edge sword, being unpredictable is getting the job done for now. Trump does not want to fit in the shoes of a coherent leader, or someone who lives by the weight of his own words. He wants to be able to change his opinion whenever he feels like it. One week, regime change is not a priority in his policy towards Syria. The next, Assad must go. NATO was obsolete during his campaign. It is not anymore. Because he said so. Because it is great. Totally. Amazing.

The recent shows off military power in Syria and Afghanistan suggest Trump believes that the uncertainty he inspires both in rivals and allies will be enough to halt North Korean’s nuclear program. He is convinced that the combination of the right display of might and his personal portrayal as a determined and – more importantly – unpredictable leader will send Pyongyang an ultimatum: either it stops its nuclear and ballistic tests, or face direct military action from the US.

His efforts will not work, however. From Bush Jr. to Obama the lesson is that the use of force to counter proliferation only applies to countries that have not yet developed the most rudimentary combination of ballistic missiles and chemical, biological or nuclear weapons. That is why the US invaded Iraq in 2003, while the remaining members of the so-called ‘Axis of Evil’ – Iran and North Korea – conducted their business as usual. In the same manner, the Libyan dictator Muammar Gadhafi would likely still be around if he had not settled a deal to terminate his WMD program in 2003.

In North Korea, a country that has undeniably developed nuclear weapons, its political leadership is carefully confident. Pyongyang knows that in order to attack a nuclear-armed country one has not to be unpredictable but crazy. As seven decades in the nuclear age demonstrates, structural (or nuclear) deterrence does not require rationality but simply a sense of self-preservation. It is based on the understanding that the possible benefits of aggression will not be worth its assured drawbacks. In other words, bullies recognize each other and in the face of serious consequences, their threats are not likely to be backed up with their actions.

In the end, nuclear proliferation – as any other challenge that the 21st Century has thrown at us – does not only concern US or Western security. It affects the whole international community and, as such, it can only be tackled through multilateral cooperation and diplomatic efforts. Being young and immature, high school bullies usually do not have the tools to deal with their problems in a peaceful and civilized manner. They lack the kind of skills needed to solve issues in the adult world, which can be extremely frustrating. They have muscles to flex and nothing more. And when all you’ve got is a hammer, it is better if all of your problems just look like nails.