Professor who got it right last time says Trump has 91% chance of re-election

Back in 2016 when the Democrats were being so smug about their polls where it was known that Hillary Clinton was definitely going to win, the smug media all chimed in about how Trump ran a good campaign but simply does't have a chance. We were shown all these maps of the USA where Clinton was going to win 2/3 of the states and dominate the popular vote and the electoral college and how Trump needs to concede victory to Clinton and get out of the way once that time comes.

Well, we all know what actually happened and the left has been having a collective temper tantrum ever since.

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I remember I didn't even turn on the TV that day back in 2016. I didn't vote for Trump afterall but would vote for a toaster before I vote for Clinton. I am a Libertarian and voted for a stoner clown from New Mexico who doesn't know how to speak in public. I wish I could say that I was proud of this decision, but what a disaster Gary Johnson was as a candidate. 2016 was such a great opportunity for the Libertarian party and he was just a terrible guy for the job.

Anyway, this professor who is named Helmut Norpoth (sweet name, by the way) is one of the few people that anyone actually listens to that got it right in 2016. His model, which relies on quantitative data that he inputs, is a bit of a mystery that he is not telling anyone the secret behind, has correctly predicted the past 5 out of 6 elections and the one that it got wrong was the Al Gore vs W. Bush fiasco that many people argue actually should have gone the other way.

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While his computer model obviously was not around 100 years ago, he has retroactively input all the data from every election that has taken place since 1912 and the program has gotten all of them correct except for 2 times: The aforementioned election in 2000 and John F. Kennedy's victory in 1960 - which was kind of a shock to the world at the time anyway.

To make matters worse for the Democrats, his model is predicting that Trump will win substantially more electoral votes than he did in 2016; 362 as opposed to the 304 that he won last go round.

Norpoth will not reveal the specifics behind his model but simply states that it completely ignores public opinion polls - which is probably a very important thing because if 2016 and the past 4 years have taught us anything about the media, it is that they will adjust and hijack any poll they take in order to get a desired result rather than the truth.

I would suggest that the fact that his model completely bypasses the media is a big part of the reason why he was basically the only model that got it right in 2016 and if you are a Trump supporter, this should be very welcome news. Of course the main stream media does not cover the existence of this model or of Norpoth himself and his success in predicting Presidential victories. Because doing so would go against what most of them desperately want to be true.

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On a side note I want to say that I am not a huge fan of Trump but he does amuse me the way that he will not cower to the media-driven political machine. I truly believe that he is MUCH more popular than any poll will ever show and that the media is working day and night to create totally false information about the guy and the public isn't buying it anymore. As a matter of fact, their efforts are having the opposite effect.

I haven't voted Republican or Democrat in any election since 1996, but I am almost certainly going to do so this November. Not because I am a Trump fanboi (I am not) but because I really really hate what the way the Democrats, and by extension 90% of the media, have handled losing in 2016. I will love love love love love seeing them crying again come the day after election day.