There are only two factors for population explosion: material abundance and universal access to basic medical care.

First factor has usually been at work throughout human history, as humans have moved from gathering and hunting to agricultural societies and from agricultural to industrial societies, both leading the population explosion.

Sometimes the spread of several new crops has had this effect, such as the introduction of sweet potatoes and corn to China. The second factor only occurs in modern times, when the spread of modern medical technology has led to a dramatic decrease in death rate.

The situation now

In the Republic of Nepal, for example, the school system is 5 years of elementary school, 3 years of middle school, and 4 years of high school, with 10 years of compulsory education (free of charge). The number of students in compulsory education is 973,000 (public data). The total population of the country is 28 million people, of which 10.15 million are under 15 years old, accounting for 34% of the total population. The natural population growth rate in the country is 13.2.

India is in a slightly better position, with a less frightening population growth rate, but also has up to 400 million people under the age of 15, or 30% of the population. The number of educated people is a little better than in Nepal, but not by much. The natural growth rate is 11.38.

In addition, major population countries such as Pakistan and Bangladesh are in a worse situation than Nepal, with Bangladesh's natural growth rate breaking 13 and Pakistan's breaking 20!

Forecast for the future

It is foreseeable that in about 5 to 20 years, at most within 25 years, South Asia will have at least 500 million young people of childbearing age. Even if all these young people maintain a minimum level of fertility, at least 1.1 billion new people will be generated. South Asia's current population is only about 1.8 billion, 20 years later at least will grow to about 3 billion.

The brutal stabilization of the world's population.

We can observe that every population explosion eventually stabilizes at a level where it does not increase dramatically. This is because resources are, after all, finite and cannot support an infinite number of people, and the population is bound to stabilize once it reaches the productivity ceiling

If productivity does not get a big breakthrough, the population will instead be affected by war and famine in the short term and decrease. But roughly it is stabilized at this level, waiting for the next technological and technical breakthrough.

This is a broad macro trend, but in fact short-term history often runs counter to this trend. If we look at the productivity level as a straight line, then the population is a sine curve, sometimes a little more, sometimes a little less. On the graph it looks like nothing, just cold numbers, but in reality it is millions, tens of millions or even hundreds of millions of people starving to death.

The key question

The key question is whether the rate of increase in food production can catch up with the rate of population growth, whether per capita food rations will increase or decrease in the next 20 years in India and even in the entire South Asia region, and whether there will be an inflection point at which the increase in food production cannot catch up with population growth, and where this inflection point is.

India's population growth is currently essentially equal to the world's food production increase. This delicate and frightening balance could be upset once food production increases at a slower rate or India's population growth accelerates.

Yet we have just learned that there is a baby boom coming to India. When this baby boom comes, it will be the time when this horrible balance is broken. It has already been estimated that the whole will add at least 1.1 billion people in the next 20 years, and India will add at least 800 million or so. By 2030, India's total population is expected to be likely to be at 1.7 billion people.

The Impact of the South Asian Holodomor

The inevitable consequence of a major humanitarian crisis in South Asia, where there are two nuclear-armed countries and three large countries with populations of over 100 million, is to drag the entire world into a catastrophe, a mega famine that affects a quarter of the world's population.

The result of the outbreak of the food crisis in South Asia is an influx of refugees, a possible nuclear war, inevitable large-scale armed conflicts and a dramatic deterioration of the local living environment. The borders of neighboring countries and even the security of the Indian Ocean shipping lanes are threatened.

The solution to the famine in South Asia.

The solution to a food crisis is simply to increase or decrease in two ways: increase food production and decrease food consumption. Reducing food consumption requires controlling the population.

The only ways to increase food production are: good seeds, fertilizers, construction of water facilities, and improved cultivation methods.Transgenic technology.

The use of genetic technology to improve yields, reduce the difficulty of cultivation, and increase disaster resistance may be the only real and viable solution. Indeed Bangladesh has liberalized GM research and experimentation

• I hope my prediction is wrong.

END

But no matter what the result is, I hope that human beings can face the difficulties together, all human beings unite together and help each other.

Humans should not struggle with each other, and humans should go to explore the stars.

Thank you very much. I also welcome any comments. But please keep it friendly.