RealClearPolitics is a joke.

in real •  6 months ago 

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Been awhile since I said it and it bears repeating during election season, but RealClearPolitics is a joke and has been for awhile.

Their polling average is completely arbitrary on inclusion and really basic at that.

Use Nate Silver or FiveThirtyEight for robust polling averages. They actually weight stuff like pollster quality, recency, likely voter effect, pollster bias, sample size, and so forth. RCP just does simple averages with only a handful of polls.

Their race ratings are even more of a joke. There are a bunch of quality expert race ratings outfits that have excellent track records. Those race ratings will take into consideration stuff like state fundamentals, fundraising, demographics, and other elements that polls alone won't capture.

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