House Buying Secrets"

If you want to learn how to make money and invest, how do you start and where do you learn it? this problem. I would always recommend him to start research and practice with buying a house, because buying a house can be said to be the only existence in the entire investment system that takes both entry and depth into account, because real estate is the end industry in China, the mother of domestic demand, and the king of the industry. is a necessity for human survival. In any era, this industry will not disappear, it will only change.

In my country, real estate is also a pivotal industry. You see, there is nothing like real estate. It is a natural resource, a means of production, a means of subsistence, consumption, investment, civilian goods, and financial products. It can be used for daily living. , can be mortgaged, can help you find a partner, can help you provide for the elderly, is government fiscal revenue, and is an important source of our urban construction, wages, benefits, and pensions. It’s impossible to live without it, it’s not you who can’t do without it, it’s all our production and life that can’t do without it.

So if you can give a general idea of the field of buying a house, then you will have a starting point accumulation far superior to others when you make any type of investment in the future, whether it is stocks or business.

Because when you really start to spend time researching real estate, you will find that the knowledge you need to master is magnificent. Every time you master one of them, you can gain cognitive sublimation and huge profits from it. Moreover, the high-quality real estate you invest in is also the last risk pocket for your other investments.

In the past 20 years, housing prices in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and major regional central cities across the country have increased by more than 10 times. In particular, the increase in housing prices in the central urban areas of core cities is even stronger than the growth rate of money supply. Only by owning high-quality real estate in the core areas of core cities across the country can we truly outperform inflation and become friends of time.

The core cities here specifically refer to the core cities in the five major urban agglomerations, namely the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River urban agglomeration, the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration, and the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration. Because in the next 15 years, these five urban agglomerations will Accounted for 65% of housing demand.

As for the securities market, stocks, bonds, funds, warrants and other products, under normal circumstances, the investment income is much lower than the growth rate of M2; it is even worse for insurance and wealth management, fixed deposits, demand deposits and other products; Risky products with high leverage in futures or new tracks of speculative concepts such as Bitcoin, Metaverse, and NFT to earn windfalls, for ordinary people, the probability of becoming harvested leeks is greater; while precious metals, jewelry, antiques, calligraphy and paintings Such niche investment products have too high professional and technical thresholds, and are not accessible to ordinary people, and the income is far lower than the growth rate of M2; as for high-risk and high-yield private equity investment, mergers and acquisitions, and listing, the threshold It's not something that ordinary people can afford to play, and it's just an eye addiction, just look at it.

Although real estate has moved from a "super bull market" in which every city is rising to a "differentiation era" in the past five years, if you choose a high-quality residence in a core city, it will still outperform GDP in the next 15 years, and it will also increase significantly. Probability outperforms inflation, at least it can prevent inflation.

Some people hope that the country's housing will not be speculated, so that housing prices will not rise or fall. They can first think about the following 8 questions:

Who owns the land on which the house is built?
Who owns the tax generated by building a house?
Whose jobs will be created by building houses?
Who is the bank for the house loan?
Who owns the GDP driven by house construction?
Who owns the domestic demand driven by selling land for wages and decoration after buying a house?
If it falls, who will be most affected?
Would you still buy it if the house price really didn't rise or fell?

Instead of thinking about these 8 questions, you can also think about the following 4 questions related to yourself:

Under the urban resources tied up with real estate, how to solve the problem of children's education without buying a house? Where will their accounts be located? In which school district do you go to school? In which city did you take the college entrance examination?
Those who have permanent property have perseverance. When high-quality real estate becomes a status symbol, if you don’t buy a house, how to convince your parents, how to convince your lover’s parents, how to convince your lover, how to resist the strange eyes of relatives and friends ?
If the currency is oversupplied, if you don't buy a house, where should the family's reserves be placed? What kind of assets can accommodate so much currency, but also allow yourself and your family not to worry day and night?
The current rental market is immature. Is it really feasible to rent a house for a lifetime without buying a house in China?

Taking a step back to analyze, we assume that all the houses have not been rising or falling, then the first thing that social house buyers should do is to sell all the houses in their hands. If there is a house worth 10 million, With a down payment of 3 million and a loan of 7 million, suddenly the house is worth 5 million. What will happen to the house buyers in society? Will he count? Right, since it is a bank loan, let the bank take away the house, 5 million, why pay 7 million, understand? But the bank took the house, and it couldn't sell it. As thousands of lenders, they didn't pay back the mortgage, so what should the bank do? Did the bank take a bunch of houses and sit on the ground and cry?

Then let’s take a look again, if the house cannot be sold, the developer will not acquire the land, and if the land cannot be sold, the local government will also be short of money, wages, pensions, and civil servants, teachers, and doctors. There is no money to spend, and now everyone has a house, and now the house suddenly depreciates, everyone's value has shrunk, and the six wallets have been emptied by the house, everyone still has money to eat and watch Movies, singing KTV? no right? Then consumption also shrinks, right? What will shrink consumption lead to? It’s just that the products are cheap and can’t be sold because there is no money. Everyone from the bank to the individual is poor. They have no money, and they can’t buy it if they want to buy it. Then the production capacity shrinks, and then all walks of life lay off workers. After all, if there is no consumption, there is no For production, even if the company wants to get loans from the bank to produce, but the bankers are all bankrupt, they can’t get the loan, not to mention the products can’t be sold, and they can’t make money. So at this time, the national wealth evaporates in an instant. up. You might say that the central bank can print money indefinitely, but the money printed does not flow to the real estate reservoir, but to the agricultural product market, and there will be frequent occurrences of "garlic you are ruthless", "bean you play", "jiang you army", " Can you accept such phenomena as "Scallion Shocking Waves" and "Sugar Emperor Gaozong"? Are you willing to accept high prices or high housing prices? Do you still think that the country has introduced so many macro-control policies to keep housing prices from rising or falling?

Let's take a look at the country's specific policies on housing and not speculating: purchase restrictions, loan restrictions, price restrictions, sales restrictions, and second-hand guide prices:

Purchase limit. It is short-term suppression of purchase demand. The essence of purchase restrictions is that developers discriminate against foreigners. We are all urban builders. Why do we have a policy that foreigners who do not have enough social security or have not yet settled down can’t buy a house even if they have money? After the purchase restriction, the real estate market has become a wealth game for urbanites. They can buy it in advance. Once the government releases the purchase restriction in the future, the price will skyrocket.

Then there is the loan limit. The first thing to buy a house is funds. The loan limit hits the nail on the head, and real estate speculators flee when they hear about it, but this policy will accidentally hurt the replacement buyers. Now replace customers, which one has no loan record? Which one didn't originally have a suite? Originally, a 30% down payment was enough to buy a house with a loan, but now it takes 50% or 70% down payment. Many poor people with insufficient funds can no longer afford to buy or change houses. At this time, the rich come out to scan goods at low prices, because they can afford 70% of the down payment, or even the full payment. The cost of these people's loans will be added to the selling price when the house is sold in the future, which will actually fuel the rise in housing prices.

Next, let's talk about sales restrictions. Similar to heavy taxes, sales restrictions are a measure to block active transactions. The essence of the sales restriction is to freeze second-hand houses, and families who just need them are forced to buy new houses. It is convenient for developers to sell new houses in a steady stream, and then go to the government to buy land. In cities with sales restrictions, housing prices cannot fall in the short term, because there is no reference price for sales and no transaction volume. However, if the restricted sale period is long, the house price will definitely rise. Why? In those cities where sales are limited, the more primary and second-hand houses are sold during the period, the more houses are locked up, and the greater the upward momentum, the policy can only be controlled for a while, so don't underestimate the market's retaliatory power.

Finally, let's talk about the price limit. Price limit is the most powerful, why? Because the top management and developers don't even want profits! New houses are cheaper than second-hand ones. Developers sell them at a loss. Since they can’t make any money, they can just repay the bank loans after selling them. After these few years, they are not so active in acquiring land. Anyway, they can’t make any money. The market is the smartest. If a business cannot make money, no one will do it. Once the developers stop acquiring land, the income of the top executives will also drop sharply, resulting in the failure of the land auction. The land is top-notch, developers are building fewer houses, and the supply is less, and housing prices will continue to rise in the next few years. But the price limit itself cannot reduce housing prices, because the profit is given to buyers, which instead stimulates demand. Those who did not plan to buy a house, seeing it is so cheap, can make money if they buy it, so they also rush in to snatch houses.

The main effect of these policies is to limit the trading volume and prolong the period of this skyrocketing price increase. That is to say, it may have skyrocketed once a year, but now it only skyrockets once every three to five years, at least for a while, and wait for some people’s wages to rise. Come up, the income can make a down payment, and on the other hand, it also protects the house price from falling.

Especially the second-hand guide price introduced this year. In fact, the second-hand guide price is mainly guided by banks and intermediaries; secondly, it also affects your display on the sales platform (to prevent the possibility of speculation). The loan application is accepted according to the guide price, and the down payment of the buyer will be more than 1 million in an instant, and when it is sold on the intermediary circle of friends or the real estate trading platform, if the guide price exceeds the guide price, the intermediary circle of friends or the real estate trading platform will not be able to display .

Seeing this, maybe you understand that the second-hand guide price is used to reduce the loan ratio and restrict sellers from selling publicly on the online platform. In fact, it is to reduce leverage and limit your opportunity cost of selling, restricting loans + restricting sales variant of After going around for a long time, the above still restricts loans + sales restrictions, because buying a house with a loan is equivalent to taking the resources of the country and injecting them into one's own asset bag, which is to earn currency dividends. If there are too many people doing this kind of wool-gathering to take advantage of it, the walls of socialism will be hollowed out.

Then why does the government only suppress second-hand housing loans, but not new housing? Because if no one buys the new house, the government’s land cannot be sold, and the source of finance will be affected. In this way, the entire city’s infrastructure, education, medical care and other welfare services, the wages of civil servants and public institutions, and pensions for retired employees will have no money to pay. Something will happen soon. The government needs to pay for the cost of demolition or land acquisition, improve or build new roads, lay water, electricity and pipe networks, invest in the construction of parks, schools, hospitals, and relocate some enterprises and institutions to fill the popularity of the land, etc. Cost, the real net profit is actually not too high.

Then why does the government only suppress second-hand housing loans, but not new housing? Because if no one buys the new house, the government’s land cannot be sold, and the source of finance will be affected. In this way, the entire city’s infrastructure, education, medical care and other welfare services, the wages of civil servants and public institutions, and pensions for retired employees will have no money to pay. It's going to happen right away. The government needs to pay the cost of demolition or land acquisition, improve or build new roads, lay water, electricity, and gas pipeline networks, and invest in building parks, schools, hospitals, and relocating some enterprises and institutions to fill people's popularity, etc. . All aspects are costs, and the real net profit is actually not too high.

Local governments cannot directly seek loans from banks, so for infrastructure construction and various expenditures, they can only set up some platform companies. Through these companies to increase leverage, they can find CDB, the four major commercial banks, joint-stock commercial banks and rural cooperative finance. Institutions and city commercial banks with strong management and control capabilities take loans; as collateral, they are the assets injected into these platform companies by the local government, and most of these assets are land. Therefore, the real estate market can be adjusted, but the government’s land will continue to be sold, and the price of new houses must also rise steadily, otherwise social house buyers will not play with you.

With the second-hand guide price, in the current environment, it has basically prevented the house price from skyrocketing and plummeting, so that the house price is fully controllable by the government, synchronized with inflation, and rising moderately. This is obviously the situation that the country most hopes to appear. It is to stabilize it at this high level, so that property owners feel that their property will have rising expectations, so you don’t want to sell this house, and you just need it because the cost is too high, and you don’t really want to buy it. Of course, you still want to buy it now. , but after the future is high enough, you may not want to buy it, then there will be no transactions, no transactions, will this high-level bubble be consolidated, and the bubble will not burst if it is consolidated, then continue like this in the future maintained.

Of course, at this stage (that is, from now to the next 15 years), housing prices in core cities where population flows will still rise moderately in the process of continuous inflation and urbanization. Why does the country keep housing prices stable in a cycle that is basically synchronized with inflation at the end of urbanization? Have you ever thought about this question?

First of all, I would like to popularize a concept for everyone, that is, what is the GDP related to, and it is related to three things, one is domestic consumption, the other is our export, and the other is the investment amount. What is the investment amount? The investment amount is China Government expenditures, how much money is spent on building roads, how much money is spent on building subways, and how much money is spent on building high-speed rail, these are all GDP. It is related to these three things, so let’s make the simplest model below (don’t pay attention to whether the pig is worth 100,000 or not, and whether the calculation is fine or not).

Let’s say that Lao Li is a pig farmer. With his annual money, he can buy 10 piglets. Suppose he raises 10 piglets, and then sells the big pigs to the government for 100,000 yuan at the end of the year. The government will give him 100,000 yuan. 10,000 yuan, but give him 100,000 yuan, assuming that he can only buy 10 piglets, even if the currency is not exceeded, he can still only raise 10 piglets, and then by the end of the year, the big pigs will sell for 10 Ten thousand yuan, how can the economy grow? At this time, the government thought of a way. After Lao Li gave him the big pig this year, he first gave Lao Li 100,000 yuan, and he secretly printed 100,000 yuan himself.

After the government got 100,000 yuan, it said to Lao Li, I will lend you my 100,000 yuan, and you will pay it back separately at an interest rate of 5% a year. Just pay it back to me after three years. Lao Li now It is 200,000 yuan. He can buy 20 small pigs. In the second year, the big pigs can earn 200,000 yuan. The production capacity will increase by itself. After the production capacity increases, he will sell these big pigs for 200,000 yuan. The government, and then he can earn 700,000 yuan in three years, and return 115,000 yuan with interest. He repays 35,000 yuan a year, and then he has 165,000 yuan left. Has the income of residents increased and the production capacity has increased? After the production capacity is increased, there is surplus capacity, can we export it? Have exports increased? Then I said Lao Li, he is rich, he has 165,000 yuan, can he spend it? Consumption has increased again, so when you see this simplest model, you know that after the government provides some money, the entire market becomes smoother and the economy improves.