I made a betting plan for this month. Although it's already in the middle of the month, I did not place any bets so far because I was travelling. The plan last month did not work out too good, so I will adapt some things for this month. I will limit the number of competitions and I want to plan some units to bet on predictions of other members of the SBC.
Molali
I created a new Model for the Spansish La Liga . I am aware that a model should proof it's liability before placing bets based on it, but I am willing to take that risk. I will place some small bets if the model finds a value bet to test the performance.
- The stakes for result bets are 1 Unit
- The results for the 3-way bets are 2 Units
The stakes for all other bets
I increased my bankroll this month again by 100 Units. This gives me for this month roughly a bankroll of 500. The stakes are the same as last month, only adapted to the higher bankroll:
- My average bet is 1% of my bankroll = 5 Units
- Each day I can place max. 2 bets of 1.5% = 7.5 Units or 1 bet with 2% = 10 Units
- Max. of 10% of the bankroll at risk = Max. 50 Units at risk at the same time
- Bets from other SBC Members will be placed at max. 5 Units
The stakes stay the same until the end of the month, I will evaluate for the next month if I can go up or must come down.
Bet types
This month I will play only single bets. Only exception are the result bets based on the Molali.
I will only place bets with odds over 1.60 (0.10 higher than last month), but the goal is that the average is around 1.70 – 2.00 or higher.
Competitions
Last month I spread my bets over too many competitions. This month I will limit my own bets on the Spanish League, the Swiss Super League and the Champions League. I will make exceptions for the bets based on predictions of the other SBC Members.
Good luck with the model!
Is it based on a poisson distribution? And if so, how many previous seasons are you taking into account?
Downvoting a post can decrease pending rewards and make it less visible. Common reasons:
Submit
Thanks. Yes it is based on a poisson distribution. I took the last 5 seasons and the current season.
Downvoting a post can decrease pending rewards and make it less visible. Common reasons:
Submit
The Lars uses 4 seasons and the current season, the Nyls also uses the last 3 and current season!
I did build mine in Excel. You?
Downvoting a post can decrease pending rewards and make it less visible. Common reasons:
Submit
Is that the only difference between those? Do you think this could be the reason for the different performance?
I used excel too.
Downvoting a post can decrease pending rewards and make it less visible. Common reasons:
Submit