"Where have you gone Dave Kingman? A nation turns its lonely eyes to you."
That famous lyric from the Simon & Garfunkel song "Mrs. Robinson" actually references Joe DiMaggio, not Dave Kingman, as the baseball hero we miss from our youth. DiMaggio was famous for his ability to make contact with the pitch, in his career he had 2,214 base hits while striking out only 369 times. Dave Kingman, the mighty "Kong" who struck out 1,816 times while recording 1,575 base hits, is a more accurate representative of today's MLB hitters, who are once again striking out at alarming rates. To quote another famous song, "The Times They Are A-Changin'."
As of May 10, MLB batters this season have amassed 9,244 hits while striking out 9,607 times. If this trend continues, 2018 will be the first season in Major League Baseball history with more strikeouts than base hits. This is not surprising news, strikeouts have been steadily rising upward for the past decade. From 2007 to 2017, the number of strikeouts per game has risen from 6.62 to 8.25. So far this season, batters are striking out 8.75 times per game. This is a drastic increase, to provide some background see the following table measuring strikeouts per game over the years.
| Season | Strikeouts per game |
|---|---|
| 2017 | 8.25 |
| 2007 | 6.62 |
| 1997 | 6.61 |
| 1987 | 5.96 |
| 1977 | 5.16 |
| 1967 | 5.99 |
So why has there been such a substantial increase in strikeouts and is there any reason to believe it will change?
Hitting a baseball is widely considered to be the hardest thing to do in professional sports. That task hasn't got any easier with the increase in bullpen specialization. Starting pitchers are pitching less innings as managers turn to their bullpens earlier to bring fresh arms into the game. Last year teams used on average of 4.22 pitchers per game, the highest in major league history. That number has already jumped to 4.31 this year. Generally, hitters fair better against pitchers the more plate appearances they have against them in a game. Batters are losing this edge as relief pitchers are called into the game sooner. Increased bullpen usage also gives the manager the ability to create more left/left and right/right matchups that also favor pitchers.
Not only are hitters having to face more pitchers per game, umpires are getting better at calling strikes. Since 2001, MLB has used QuesTec's Umpire Information System (UIS) technology to record pitch locations and compare them to the umpire's calls of balls and strikes. In 2007 it was determined that slightly less than 75% of pitches in the strike zone were called strikes. Using UIS to help train umpires, that number rose to 85% last season. Simple logic here, more called strikes lead to more strikeouts.
The use of defensive shifts is changing the way batters approach hitting. Facing more defenders to their "pull" side of the field, many players are changing their swings to increase the chances of hitting the ball harder into the air rather than trying to hit pitches to the opposite field. Hall of Fame slugger Ralph Kiner said it best, "Home run hitters drive Cadillacs, singles hitters drive Fords."
Baseball teams have always valued home runs over batting average. As long as this remains true, hitters will shy away from trying to beat the shift by hitting to the other side of the field because it decreases their power. Launch angle is the buzzword of the day in MLB, defenders can't catch a ball that's hit into the stands. Yet launch angle alone doesn't generate a home run, batters have to swing earlier and harder. With umpires calling a greater percentage of strikes, batters are swinging at more pitches. Pitchers know this and have adjusted accordingly by throwing fewer pitches inside the strike zone, which batters are missing since they are swinging earlier and harder to hit home runs. It is starting to become a vicious circle.
Are there any ways to combat this trend of increased strikeouts? Of course there is, but will any of them be implemented is the real question.
Some have suggested lowering the mound from 10 to 5 inches to take some leverage away from pitchers. The mound was lowered from 15 to 10 inches after the 1968 season when Bob Gibson posted a 1.12 earned run average and Denny McLain won 31 games. This change would be very radical since every pitcher in baseball would be forced to alter his mechanics, something teams would like to avoid since altered mechanics could lead to more injuries. Offense completely disappeared in 1968, a radical change was necessary.
While strikeouts are up, runs scored per game has remained relatively steady. The problem isn't a lack of runs, it's how the runs are obtained. If MLB doesn't do anything, every baseball game will come closer to resembling an all or nothing home run derby. Home runs are exciting, but they will lose some of their appeal if they are surrounded by endless strikeouts.
Limiting the amount of bullpen pitchers a team can use would not only help lower strikeouts, it would fit in with MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred's desire to decrease the length of ballgames. This is easier said than done. Where do we draw the line? Three pitchers per game? Four? What if a pitcher is injured during the game? What if a starter doesn't have it on a particular day and is shelled for six runs in the first inning? Would teams be forced to let relievers hit instead of pinch hitters because they're out of options?
Every baseball game is different and there are simply too many different scenarios which could pop up at any time to make it fair to be able to say a team can only use a set number of relievers. Exceptions for injuries wouldn't work either, any pitcher could suddenly have a "sore" elbow but miraculously feel just fine in time for the next game.
The main instigator of increased strikeouts that could easily be fixed is the defensive shifts. Overloading one side of the diamond to take away singles and doubles has led to hitters assuming an all or nothing stance at the plate. With more batters swinging for the fences on every pitch, strikeouts have nowhere to go but up. Home runs are up too, but not nearly on the same pace. In the past decade, strikeouts have risen by 31%, home runs by 10%.
By limiting the number of fielders a team can have on either side of the diamond, larger hitting lanes would open up for batters inside the park. Some players will always swing for fences all the time anyway, like the aforementioned Kingman, but many more would level out their swings with the increased ability to get a base hit on the field. Hitters could be more selective at the plate since they wouldn't be forced to swing as early or hard. This would lead to fewer strikeouts, more base hits and generally more action on the diamond.
Isn't that what we all want? Sure. Will it happen? To quote one more song, "You Can't Always Get What You Want."
Photo credits: Erik Drost CC BY-SA 2.0 via Wikimedia Commons
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Author: @chops316
Editor: @liberty-minded
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