I am really looking forward to UFC 296 because Colby Covington is one of my favorite fighters in MMA. He is a bit of a jerk but this is intentional and I like it. In pro wrestling throughout my life I have always been fans of the "heels" or the "bad guys" so when Covington transitioned to being the bad guy, I started to like him a lot more than I did before then.
src
His taunting of his opponents in the octagon, the promos he does leading up to fights where he is rude as hell, and his ultra-conservative approach to the sport that may very well be a gimmick are all things that completed his "heel" persona. He even chose the famous "Kurt Angle" song as his intro song to encourage the crowd to shout "You Suck!" during his walk to the octagon. This was done on purpose.
But image and attitude aside, I also think that Covington is one of the most exciting and well-rounded fighters in the UFC. Even though they win a lot, I find grapplers and jiu-jitsu fighters to be really boring. Covington CAN do this, but he normally prefers to brutalize his opponents from a standing position instead. He also has one hell of a chin and can take a ton of damage.
That being said, he has been offered a chance at the championship twice already and has only ever held an interim title. He failed twice at defeating Kamaru Usman and you don't get a third try in those situations.
src
Covington has been pushing for a chance at the belt for a while but I believe that the UFC was correct in their decision to not allow him to go for it until now. We can't just keep pushing the same guy over and over and over again even if they are a crowd pleaser and bring in the pay-per-view buys. When Leon Edwards won the belt months ago, I think everyone was kind of surprised and perhaps even more surprised when he defended it. I was one of the people that thought his victory was a bit of a fluke but he proved me and all the pundits wrong when he defeated Usman again 6 months later.
For Covington, this might be the last chance that he gets at the belt because some are already some people out there that feel as though Belal Muhammad should be the one who is getting a chance at the belt next, not Covington. The timing is just a bit off though and since Belal already fought Gilbert Burns in May and Covington hasn't fought since last year, the timing is right for Colby to get a chance. There is also the tiny little aspect about how Covington is a MUCH bigger draw than Muhammad is and his promotional work is always effective at selling out shows and pay per view buys.
I like Covington's chances against Edwards and really feel as though he could win this. However, I will admit that I am biased because I really like Colby but I also have nothing against Edwards. Covington is 35 years old and this is right around the point of age that anyone except outliers start to wind down in their careers. If Covington fails to win the strap in mid-December, it will be at least 2 years before he is offered another chance because Belal will have to be the next one to have a chance next and I suppose there is a chance that if Edwards wins in December and then loses to Belal, that Covington might have another chance at it. At this point though Covington will probably be 37 years old and like I said, outside of some very special people, this is too old to compete anymore.
As it stands now the Vegas bookmakers don't really know how to call this one. Things can change over the course of the next few weeks but as it stands now Edwards is a slight favorite at -125 on a straight bet for simple victory. This means that if you bet $1000 on Edwards to win and he does, you would win $875. Keep in mind that when the fight was first announced that it was Covington that was favored at -135... these things change according to how many bets are put down because as you know, the house always wins in Vegas.
I think I will make a few local friendly bets on Covington though because I believe that Colby himself knows that this is the last chance he is likely to get and is going to bring his all but then again, does he ever NOT bring it all?
My money in on Covington for the win.