Just small thoughts inspired by @dan, here
It is so sad seeing people fight over nothing
At this moment, it actually is something. $100 can feed a family several days or a month depending on where you are. But think bigger. What if Steem has 1 billion monthly active users, which is more than 152,000 times than now and about 53% of Facebook's? Assuming very positively that Steem has the same market cap as facebook, $394 billion. It is 16,800 times greater than current Steem market cap. Then average reward per active user becomes about 1/10 than now.
Whales can be dominant still, but there are many other whales balancing the power. Most of contents will get under $1 or $0.1. Rewards may have less importance. Some users are just enjoying writing and reading, some others maybe enjoying donation or tipping.
But if we have similar proportion bots(I identified at least 500 bots we have now), there will be 70 million bots casting tens of times per day. Some posts would get over 10,000 votes from bots (while getting below dollar reward and hundres of views)
They are just my imagination, but back to the top, I agree with @dan's statement. It seems something to fight over, but will be nothing in the future. Think bigger!
What's your thoughts? Please share your imagination too!
Well, at the moment it is super-easy to manage all the active users on steemit, after all - there is not that many, and the rewards well, right now is:
Total Reward Fund: 57985.119 STEEM (Worth: $6310.145 internally; $5756.415 on Poloniex)if you or me spent 1 second counting from zero to 1 billion without sleep, it would take us 13 years, @clayop :)
whales managing a billion active users would be a super centralised and impossible task.
Better delegate the vote-power to all the people of steemit and let the owners of the steempower get their curation rewards.
Vote-Power to the People & The Rich get Richer and the people itself will find the next thing to go viral, like gangnam style or what the fox said.
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The most interesting part would be to divide the $5756.415 between a billion users. ;)
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It will be "FM"
It's freeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeekin' Magic is what it is!
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I agree, we all gotta think big, think of the future! This, is in my mind is a revolutionary concept of a platform. We all make it work and we should all be aware that we have to work together to make it work.
Lord I sound like a hippy but I really mean it!
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Haha cool!
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@clayop
The marketcap of steem could be 3 times bigger than facebook with only 100M users https://steemit.com/steem/@snowflake/market-capitalization-of-a-cryptocurrency-is-not-comparable-to-market-capitalization-of-a-company
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That would be normal I suppose the token has other uses while the like can only be sold by the platform and some "freelance" likers :D
Can you check the above comment by me, tell me what you think and if it could work, I'm in way over my head so I want to check back with reality :P
Link if you like
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Lol! Peace man ! ✌🤘✌
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Lol, I dig it!!
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Far Out Man , Groovy !✌🤘👍✌
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Are you using the current algorithm or a different one to create your future scenario? I agree that your outlook does not look promising for the average person. There's one thing though that maybe you've haven't considered: if the value of 1 Steem goes up dramatically, won't that it make it more lucrative, not less when receiving author and curator rewards? If both metrics go up: people and value of Steem, won't that make a difference?
We all know what happens if Steemit doesn't grow, but how do we know with any certainty that your assessment is accurate?
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It looks accurate to me... He did estimate the same market value as current Facebook (our Steem is essentially shares just like Facebook stock) with only half the users of Facebook, an optimistic assumption. The average user account would be worth $394 in total. If we just use the approximately 250 million Steem currently in existence as an example, 1 Steem would be worth about $1500. We need users to drive value, but the value won't scale linearly with each new user.
It just puts it in perspective, while we may moan about whales and early miners, if we truly have a huge success with this platform, there will be plenty of new folks feeling the same resentment about people who are currently minnows!
In truth, the disparity will be even greater in the scenario above. The inflation rate of Steem is set to gradually decrease from the current 9.5% to, I think, just .5% about 20 years in the future. Since the rewards pool is paid from inflation, if the scenario above is 10 years from now, the quantity of Steem daily in the rewards pool is half what it is currently so we're down to 1/20th the current average post payout using the above calculations.
At large scale Steem basically just becomes the internet with an inbuilt currency system. It will be just as difficult to make money on Steemit as it is to launch your own website blog and monetize it. It's work! I think we're all spoiled by the small community, captive audience, and early adopter status we have, whether we realize it or not. I've made more earnings (hypothetical - since it's all still SP) than I ever did with website advertising, affiliate programs, web stores, etc. in the past 15 years.
In a mass adoption scenario, for the average future Steemit user it will be an unpaid social network. Now people are thrilled when a celebrity retweets them, or a YouTube video or Facebook post goes viral. Those will be the standout jackpot moments casual users may see and occasionally experience to see some monetary reward.
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This doesn't look like a very bright future.
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I still think it's positive, even giving all those assumptions. Remember the currency aspect, the possibility of blockchain smart contracts, etc.
In the above scenario I'm sure Steem would be big enough that we could imagine having services equivalent to KickStarter, Patreon, Fiverr, GoFundMe, without a centralized middleman taking a 10-20% cut. Sending payments internationally with no fees and no more hassle than sending a tweet. It's still great for content creators in the same way that the internet has enabled authors and musicians to earn their living apart from major publishers and music labels.
The average post payouts we're batting about in our hypothetical future are low, but they're the averages, and it's what I would expect.
Imagining the blockchain powering a Facebook or Instagram type site, I wouldn't expect every photo of a friends lunch or lament over a recent breakup to net a couple bucks! These mundane social media style posts would be mostly unpaid, but we'd have the opportunity for quality content to truly go viral with hundreds of thousands of upvotes and significant rewards.
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yes, the wallet in here works really well. Now, we need to focus on human happiness, for without that, nothing will actually work.
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The marketcap of steem could be 3 times bigger than facebook with only 100M users https://steemit.com/steem/@snowflake/market-capitalization-of-a-cryptocurrency-is-not-comparable-to-market-capitalization-of-a-company
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I can't wait for community features. I think that will go a very long way!
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Please(link) check my post above, also I really like the conversation you have struck with @stellabelle and also you sound like you're thoughts are organized and all so I would love to hear your 2 cents on what I'm thinking of the "future" we seem to correlate on our ideas :)
And BUMP for those community features :P
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Mine is not accurate! :) Just I did think bigger!
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ha ha ha ha! Well your account would look good if STEEM ever went m00n.
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Hey did you watch my latest video? I'm going to spam it here, so you don't have to click outside this box:
I respect your opinion.
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loool :D you killed me :D mythical philosophical what more can you ask for :D
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oh, it will get even better....
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It always does :)
Louis CK joke "It gets better"
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Thought provoking, I really haven't thought that far into the future. It honestly seems like a mind boggling amount of money to me.
What I wish people would start asking is, "What can I do to help get us there?" There are a lot of people working hard to grow steemit, but really at this stage, shouldn't we all be?
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Sure we need Steem to grow, but right now with the price it has, the constant bickering over flagging and all the other problems that seem to grow every day, it is difficult to get new people to join. Let's face it, most of the people joined because initially a few people made some good money with simple articles, making money on Steemit nowadays is extremely difficult.
What we need is have everyone lend a hand, stop being negative and try to invite all the people we can to the platform. I will try to do that, even though I do have to admit I am by nature a very negative person and am becoming a cranky middle aged man, but I guess the platform does need people like me, at least so we can vent some of our feelings,(don't know if I expressed myself correctly).
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Please(link) check my comment above and tell me what you think, for me personally I think there should be place for everyone, academia, old dogs :P ,travelers, photographers, whatever, after a "review" I think some things have changed and even though many have left the hype is lost and the price is low, it's a great time to make changes, since it's already about time, but they shouldn't be instant and or so quick to swing from one to another concept.
If there is a way to keep the original idea intact and build upon it that would be great. :)
@clayop Yea simplicity should be a goal, but not solely so and not oversimplified either.
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I think simplicity can help a lot.
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Maybe I am confused on where exactly the reward pool comes from (I very well might be), but wouldn't more people holding SP mean the reward pool would also be that much larger?
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It's proportional to Steem's market cap.
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I see... so is the rewards pool a set amount of steem each day, no matter how many people are holding SP?
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Yes, Steem has a set inflation rate, with most of that newly created Steem going to rewards. Overly simplified the inflation is about 9.5% a year, so maybe 60,000 Steem a day in rewards? That rate is gradually decreasing each year.
If you have to divide that among a billion people it's only .000068 Steem per day/ per person.
These are all very rough calculations, but it shows why bitcoin and cryptos have so many decimal points! (and why a huge increase in the value of 1 Steem is equally diluted by the huge user base that would most likely create that value)
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Ah yes... thanks for clearing this up. It is nice to see it "overly simplified" and spelled out like this. :)
Which means that if there was a massive influx of new users, rewards per user would likely be significantly less as you and @clayop have suggested... which makes being an early adopter that much more important.
The question that I have is this... if we were experiencing that much growth it seems likely to me that we could simply turn back on the inflation spigot?
An adjustable inflation rate always seemed like the best idea to me depending on growth conditions...
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That's an interesting thought, I know the inflation was turned way down for investor confidence. I don't understand the economics nearly enough to speculate, but if increased inflation led to the price dropping at all, it would really just be a wash I guess.
Yep, let's just hope we have to wrestle with such questions in the future, because we would indeed all be quite well off!
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The mind boggles...
Even if we could just siphon off the "most alternative and open" 1% of Facebook, this would still be a very large slice of pie. But I don't think that's going to happen unless Steemit become more "people driven" and less of an endless parade of bots. If we are to attract the kind of contributors who'd create great content people want to come here for, they want to have their content READ by humans, not just "pinged by bots."
I see posts with 200 upvotes and 17 "reads." What is that actually "good" for? The ratio needs to change... or bot votes need to be deflated to a tiny fraction of the value of a human interaction.
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I totally agree with you. You maybe interested in my previous posts, explaining reasons of bot activities, potential solutions, etc.
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Just READ eh, let's get that going, I NEED you're help :P
Couldn't do it by myself. It got pointless to read and record my reads since nobody big upvoted me :P
I'm with you on everything stated above, but bots aren't the problem they are just harmless victims to people's greed and ideologies( #freethebots ) :P
So yeah out of those 200 votes 100 are botvotes at 1% so no worries, there aren't enough people with the current ratio of 5:1 you can expect 5 views anything more is tred worthy :D at least if everyone opens 1 piece per day if they open 40 that would change, since then yeah 200 views :| well shame on those lazy twats making a lazy buck :P
Starting to flame away so I'm going out, I was going to say, Please(link) check my comment above and because you mean it, you can also check my blog, I've resigned to writing for now since I want those flag and whatever problems to still for a bit, ad I've already lost the "active" part of my following, since I wasn't posting regularely, I would rather take part in the conversation for now rather than just push through.
But there are at least 20 posts by me for which I've given 1-3++ hours per piece and I can feel how you do, for me the problem is the constant I have to trend I have to make more mentality. It would be better to just read the gems and find those pieces rather than just spam away daily bites :|
Cheers mate I'm out Good day!
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If we are experiencing that much growth, we could always adjust the inflation rate. We did it once before :)
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I would not want to defrock your ball but before thinking "bigger", could we have a system that works well and that would make people happy?
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Absolutely true. Working well can be viewed as short-term but as longer- and bigger -term too!
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free money makes people do weird things. Tomorrow there will be a new topic to fight over.
Before I let my imagination run wild, I have yet to see some kind of communication of steemit inc and then i can make some assumptions.
so far I can see that communism is contagious lol
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Lol
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yeah right :P people got from things are unbalanced to socialist everything :D who gave that idea and how did it go from identify problems and think of solutions to, we need more ideologies from a bankrupt past :P (and I like socialism and communism not in their real forms tho :P)
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With such a large number of users, i cannot imagine the steem price staying so low, which would at least partially compensate the growth.
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It will be interesting to see how Steemit scales. The price of Steem should change according to demand. It's worth $25m now in all, but Bitcoin is at $20b. Facebook depend on advertising, so it's a different model. Let's get to 1 million and see how it goes.
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