As i mentionned in the past few days Steem is breaking down and it's going to 1.3 USD, then 0.57 USD.
Nothing has changed. A dead cat bounce occured as i thought before resuming the lower trend. The price is making new lows and this is very bearish. We are in a descending trend that nothing seems to stop. We are still trading under the 50 MA.
Steem could be trading at 0.57 in the next 60 days.
By the way, i can see that my technical analysis don't get much rewards, maybe i should be posting bullshit analysis like other members telling you that the price is going to 600 USD to get some up votes ? It's up to you if you want a real analysis by a professional trader or analysis that says everything you want to hear in the best of the worlds. I would like to be saying that the price is going higher, but it's not. So i can't.
LMAO - maybe u should consider not to be such rude with your tone .. just as a hint .. the sound of your voice is important ..! Post what u what, but when i'm looking at your posts - it's a bit like :
at the end of the day u are also here to put money out of STEEM ..so pls stop being jealous and complaining about others .. look at your door ...
That said, yea maybe u are the only one with a honest analysis and u have great skills on the trading side, but this isn't helping you on the social one! If u would start using objective arguments against "bullshit naiveness posts" instead of just being rude all over you posts and comments ... yea i know this comment is staying forever .. so maybe u'll start thinking about ..
anyway u got my vote, as i would be happy to see more of your honest STEEM analysis! Go ahead - happy steeming
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Hi @summon, i knew my post would drag attention (good and bad) but it was the only way to get noticed. Thank you for your support and advices. Also i try to keep my analysis short instead of posting 20 screenshots per post as that is not very useful and boring to read.
Of course i could be wrong in my analysis, any good trader know that anything can happen at any time, we should always be ready. But with confidence i can say that at 95% i believe this scenario to be very possible.
I'm on Steemit more for the challenge than for the money, the rewards are in USD, but it's the fact to achieve my goals that drives me, not the money itself. Whatever i do i try to outperform the masses, here is counted in USD, on IG is counted on followers, in my business is counted on EUR and active users, at golf is counted in strokes, at trading is counted in percentages, etc.
Too many variables are in play to know what will happen with Steem and Steemit in the future. We can only try to predict it using our edges as best as we can.
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Happy steeming :) Eager to see more posts from you side!
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I just posted a more complete technical analysis, check it out and let me know what you think.
https://steemit.com/steem/@najoh/honest-and-explained-technical-analysis-steem-btc-usd-by-najoh
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You get an upvote from me!
No need for posting rubbish me friend, just keep posting what you see happening and your explanations for it.
The thing is... if you really want the higher rewards there are things you will need to do...
Firstly... don't complain about getting low or zero rewards, the only thing that will do is get you frustrated and make others feel you are only in it for the $$ (Which is fine... just don't let everyone else know)
Secondly... Longer posts (400-600 words) with a little comical twist perhaps, as humans we can lose interest quickly... catchy meme's can draw the attention towards what you're trying tell people more than a deep analysis or hard numbers!
seems silly but it's just how the mind works in most folks (know your audience)
Thirdly... don't ever stop, repetitiveness is key.
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Great advice! Thanks for this, but for the money or not when you make something for hours that dont get much reward or attention could really get you feeling down
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I downvoted this post not because I disagree, but because I don't see why Steem should pay more than $100 for a 4 paragraph post with highly speculative content. I hope you agree that there is content out there that deserves our support more .. Hope you don't take it personally.
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I also downvoted a lot of posts that i believe shouldn't receive their rewards, but my downvote did nothing to the rewards anyway. By the way, i don't believe is the quantity of text that counts but the quality of the information. I could tell you for example to buy gold at 1275 and sell it at 1500, if the information is good, you will make a load of money, but it's just a few words.
I believe that the shorter is the post the best, we don't have enough time in one day to read long posts that don't add value to the information provided. Some people value quantity, i value quality. Also as i'm posting very frequently these charts, i can't just tell about my life in each post or re-explain all the time what is the 50 MA, why it does matter, what is the RSI, etc... It would be very repetitive.
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The point I am trying to make is that the community profits more if you teached them how to come to the same conclusions as you did and not just tell them the conclusion. There is a lot to learn in the progress and once people understand your reasoning behind your conclusion, they might be able to improve upon what you have teached them.
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xeroc, i followed your advice and posted a more complete analysis.
https://steemit.com/steem/@najoh/honest-and-explained-technical-analysis-steem-btc-usd-by-najoh
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You definitely deserve higher rewards for your tech analysis posts. Its just that most people here are Crypto Noobs and dont value this type of information. However I do. So please keep posting Real shit. We appreciate it!!!!
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Did you check my last post ? ;)
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Hello @najoh So you think it's going to .60 cents? What do you think it will take to get back to $3?
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It would take buying pressure from investors or a big bunch of new users who power up. But in my idea, that won't and can't happen.
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Then expand upon your thoughts... Why do you think it "can't / won't" happen? Share your thoughts, do you think the platform is a flawed concept? or do you think it's reached its peak and will now taper off to 0.00000005.
It's always good to have multiple inputs of reasons/idea's/knowledge.
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Because 90% of all STEEM created is distributed back to holders of SP, the result is similar to having a 2:1 “split” every year rather true inflation.
To be similar to a 2:1 split, 100% of all STEEM created should be distributed to holders of SP. This is the first place where you are losing value. You will receive 9 STEEM out of 10 created into the steem power pool, the steem that is going away is creating inflation, the price of steem should normally, over time, decrease as much as the inflation. Just like the dollar.
Let's imagine that you have 100 steem power valued at 1 usd per steem, so 100 USD in your account. After a year let's say your steem power went up to 190 + 10 distributed for content and curators, the value of steem should now be 0.5 USD.
Before 100 steem at 1 usd = 100 USD
Now 190 steem at 0.50 usd = 95 USD
You've lost money that went into the pocket of content creators and curators.
What the white paper says it's that the price of the currency should not devalue as much as the money is created out of thin air, but that's just not true. In fact, the effect is not immediate, but the effect is real and will happen, creating collapses in the economy, like in 2008. Their remedy to this is to split 10:1 every 3 years, destroying 90% of the steem supply. But this will only create an illusion that the price is up when actually is not.
We know from countless real-world examples that the quantity of money does not have a direct and immediate impact on its value, though it certainly plays a role.
Also real money (USD) need to come from somewhere, because STEEM itself has no value anywhere in the world except at the exchange. If no buyers want to buy steem to power up, then the real value of STEEM is zero.
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@Nice I definitely need to read the White paper a few more times. Thanks for bringing that to my attention. How about that Factom though??
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What is the only reason to buy steem ? Power up. All the whales are powering down to make money. The selling pressure is very high. Who is buying steem to power up ? Not many people.
Does steem power really makes you money in the long run ? The answer is no and you are not even protected at 100% against the inflation. Steem power is a losing bet. The price can only go up if many people believe that steem power is a good deal, but it's not.
I know some users who believe are going to be millionaires because they bought 5000 USD of steem power, they don't understand that they are just going to have more steem that is worth less. The price of steem can only go down as new coins are generated out of thin air, creating hyper inflation. This is just a normal process, but common people don't understand it and they believe they can get rich, but they can't.
Whatever you invest into Steem, if you hold it long enough, you will lose it all.
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I'd also be interesting in hearing your thoughts on this part of the White Paper if you wouldn't mind.
Impact of Token Creation Rate
*At first glance, 100% annual increase in the STEEM supply may appear to be hyper-inflationary and unsustainable. Those who follow the Quantity Theory of Money may even conclude that the value of STEEM must fall by approximately 5.6% per month. We know from countless real-world examples that the quantity of money does not have a direct and immediate impact on its value, though it certainly plays a role.
Because 90% of all STEEM created is distributed back to holders of SP, the result is similar to having a 2:1 “split” every year rather true inflation. The total rate of expenditures used to reward contributors is about 10% of the market capitalization per year, a rate well below what Bitcoin sustained for the first 7 years after it launched.
Creating new STEEM to pay an incentive to a particular user or group has a negative effect on every other user’s balance in terms of their percentage of the STEEM supply. If exactly 90% of the STEEM supply is held in SP, then the negative effect of Contribution Incentives on SP holders’ balances is exactly balanced by the positive effect of Power Incentives; SP holders get more STEEM (in nominal terms) but their percentage of the chain (in terms of fraction of the total supply) is unchanged. If less (more) than 90% of the STEEM supply is held as SP, the two effects still point in opposite directions, but the positive (negative) effect becomes greater and the sum of these two effects will tend to pull the SP balance toward 90%. This “pull” does not mean that the SP value must hold at 90% over the long term, because incentive recipients will (and in some cases must) put their STEEM in SP, which means the “pull” towards 90% is not the only force on the percentage of STEEM supply held
as SP.*
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@najoh In addition, the price of steem is overvalued because 90% of the steem is locked up. What would the price of steem be if all of the steem locked up was released into the wild?? Imagine the increase of supply vs. demand? I guess we will never know because it takes two years to cash out. I must admit though, steem is a pretty rad social experiment... at least there are a lot more crypto fans out there because of this platform.
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If you are confident in your analysis, you should short Steem - bet on it going down. If you are right, you will earn big bucks.
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By going short you can only earn what you are betting but you are risking big in case you are wrong.
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True
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@najoh Nice analysis and if support fails price could definitely break to the downside and your targets are quite feasible. If that occurs I have my first bearish target around 0.00263 BTC at the 1.414 extension. If price falls further to the 1.618 or deeper we will be in serious bear country. Check my analysis here if you would like and please comment and tell me what you think. Take it east @najoh and keep them charts coming.
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