RE: An Unstoppable Force And First Compelling Mass Market Solution

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An Unstoppable Force And First Compelling Mass Market Solution

in steem •  8 years ago 

Thank you for the long and detailed thoughts @anonymint . I would say a couple of things in response.

Firstly, I think your caveat is relevant and should be taken into account when trying to present and comprehensive analysis of the data. Indeed, I would be very interested to read a thoughtful post discussing this particular data point.

Secondly, it's important to note that there is no misleading interpretation of the data. Indeed, the sentence where you quote me is just data. At worst, my analysis would be incomplete(which it might be), since it was not meant to be a complete explanation of all data points, but rather a raw overview on things.

Thirdly, while I agree with your basic premise that it's important to take the attrition rate into account in order to grasp true growth rate, it seems your other opinions regarding reasons why people would join steemit and how the algorithm might fool people and so forth, seem largely unfounded. Indeed, there seem to be lots of assumptions you make which are not warrented by data.

Lets assume for a second you are right, how long to you expect it will take until we will see Steemit breaking down? Would you be open to changing your mind if it doesn't? Do you see this as inevitable, or do you think there is any important step which if taken could prevent the "implosion"?

Anyway, as said in the essay, this is an experiment and a very interesting one. There is always a possibility that it could fail, but at the moment I can't see any good reason making this possibility a strong likelihood. Thus far, data seems to be pointing toward a positive scenario.

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there seem to be lots of assumptions you make which are not warrented by data

Agreed, I am employing a significant proportion of intuition and anecdotal data to support my hypothesis that Steem is not "crossing the chasm" (a known marketing concept) from its nerd (and one degree of relationship from it) demographic.

But you have not answered the most important part:

"Lets assume for a second you are right, how long to you expect it will take until we will see Steemit breaking down? Would you be open to changing your mind if it doesn't? Do you see this as inevitable, or do you think there is any important step which if taken could prevent the "implosion"?"

What are your thoughts on that?

I am watching for either daily or monthly uniques not growing according to the logistic function adoption of new technologies. The monthly uniques are not reported and I don't know if anyone is recording this data periodically so they can chart it. Or otherwise building blockchain analysis tool to extract the data.

Also some way to differentiate between bot (including duplicate Sybil) users and real human users w.r.t. to that data.

Also I'd like some stats on demographics, especially on females and those coming who had no interest in crypto before they arrived.