The US Foreign Secretary, Mr. Antony J. Blinken, spoke at the G20 Foreign Ministers’ meeting recently and said the US and NATO would continue supplying arms and aid to Ukraine until Russia is defeated.
The United States was quick to take advantage of the fragmented power structure of the Eastern Block. Through military aid, economic sanctions, and diplomatic pressure, the US has sought to weaken Russia’s position in the region and bolster its own strategic interests. This has included providing military aid to Ukraine, imposing economic sanctions on Russia, and increasing its military presence in the region.
However, while the US has been successful in countering Russian influence in the former satellite states of Eastern Europe, its approach has contributed to the escalating conflict in the region. The support of the US for Ukraine has emboldened its government to take a more aggressive stance towards Russia, leading to an extreme level of human tragedy over the past 12 months. The UN estimated that 8.1 million Ukrainians have been displaced since February 2022, and there have been an estimated 200,000 military fatalities. In addition to the human cost, the war is severely impacting the global economy due to the sanctions put in place by the West. The world economy has endured skyrocketing energy prices and a sharp decline in the production of fertilizers and food which are produced in that region.
The sanctions imposed by the West on any country doing business with Russia is causing significant disruption in the global supply chain. What right do the US and NATO countries have to impose such rulings without a UN mandate? The West, specifically the US, has continued to pressure India to support the sanctions levied against Russia. However, our Hon’ble Prime Minister has not bowed to their threats and intimidation. The two countries have enjoyed a very close relationship since the 1950s, have collaborated on military and security-related matters, and are interested in maintaining a multipolar world order. India and Russia also have strong economic ties and cooperate in various areas, such as energy, trade and investment, space, and technology.
When thinking about a more sustainable solution to the conflict in Ukraine, what is required is a dramatic shift toward a more balanced global power structure. This could be achieved through a partnership between Russia, India, China, and Japan, which would help to create a new world order. Such a partnership would not only help to reduce tensions between the West and the East, but it would also promote greater cooperation and collaboration on trade, security, and climate change issues.
A partnership between these four countries would strategically benefit all the parties. From a macro level, a coalition would lead to the formation of a larger market, with a combined population of more than three billion people, providing increased economic opportunities for all involved.
Individually each country would also see many advantages. Russia would benefit from increased trade and investment with Asia. In today’s globalized world, countries are increasingly interconnected and interdependent. Economic, political, and social developments in one country can have far-reaching impacts on other countries. Thus, it is in Russia’s best interest to engage with other nations and participate in international organizations to ensure its own economic prosperity and security, as well as to contribute to the stability and progress of the world as a whole. Similarly, it can be argued that China’s continued isolation and threats of sanctions from the West would harm its economy and hinder its progress. As Xi Jinping enters his third term in charge, he needs to be willing to prioritize peace with his neighboring countries. China’s uncompromising attitude to using force to settle a boundary dispute with India has pushed India to move towards the US for a strategic defense partnership. Similarly, its dispute with Japan and Taiwan drives both countries to align with the West. China should project itself as a peace-seeking nation. It has already used its influence to bring Iran and Saudi Arabia together, and they have a close relationship with Pakistan. If China was to bring its neighboring countries into one union, it would greatly reduce the risk of future global conflicts.
For India, a coalition could deliver increased trade and investment. It would also help in resolving the long and complex history with China. A peace treaty could lead to more productive negotiations on issues of mutual concern, such as climate change and regional security. Furthermore, it would reduce military tensions between the two countries, potentially reducing military spending and a greater focus on social and economic development. While it is a complex situation to resolve, Indian Prime Minister, Narender Modi, has emphasized that peace and tranquility in the border area is an essential prerequisite for normalizing relations. Modi’s leadership offers a unique opportunity to settle the boundary disputes with China and also with Pakistan, as he is the most strategic leader India has had since gaining its Independence. As for Japan, along with the economic benefits, a coalition between the four countries could help address regional security concerns, such as terrorism, nuclear proliferation, and maritime security.
While this war ravages parts of Eastern Europe, the US continues to monitor China, which they see as an extreme threat to the West’s global influence and power struggle. US regard China as its primary rival and the most consequential geopolitical challenge. China poses a formidable challenge to the US economically, technologically, politically, and militarily around the world. The Chinese Government must act decisively in bringing their neighboring countries together to create peace and unity. If they fail to do so, the US will look to deepen its relationship with the Quad, a strategic forum comprising the United States, Japan, India, and Australia. It was formed in 2007 but was largely inactive for several years. In recent years, however, the Quad has gained renewed importance in promoting regional security and countering Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific region. The US has been a key driver behind the Quad’s recent expansion and increased activity. The Biden administration has made strengthening ties with allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific a top priority, and the Quad fits into this broader strategy. The US sees the Quad as a way to promote a free and open Indo-Pacific, one that China does not dominate.
In conclusion, the conflict between Ukraine and Russia and the US’s influence both there and in Asia is a manifestation of the broader imbalance in geopolitical power between the West and the East. While the US has taken advantage of this imbalance to advance its own strategic interests, a more sustainable solution to the conflict would require a shift towards a more balanced global power structure. A partnership between Russia, India, China, and Japan could achieve this goal, promoting greater cooperation and collaboration between the West and the East and reducing the risk of conflict and instability worldwide.