Today I listened to @cryptobobby talking about 5 Crypto to Survive a Market Crash - My picks. I always learn something new from his video that is why I am a regular follower of his content. So I can recommend to check him out if you haven't done yet.
source: cointelegraph
What I really liked in this video is him explaining the criteria for selecting projects. Utilization and maturity of technology are two main ones.
According to those criteria I was certain that steem is going to be in that top 5 but it wasn't. In a comment in his steem post he states the reason for not being in the top 5:
it's been susceptible to major crashes in the past
I am wondering if that is relevant in a long term bear market - in my opinion in the long run utilization (user base and activeness) will be the insurance for surviving a multi year bear market.
But what I am not sure about - if we go back to lets say steem 0.50 USD for 2-3 years the author/curation rewards will be significantly lower. Does that reduce the user community so significantly that steem is going to be abandoned? That is for me the most critical question about steem and a bear market. If that is not going to be a problem I really see steem as one of the most fundamental healthy projects in the cryptoverse.
What are your thoughts on this? Should steem be in the top 5 and why?
There are about 46k steem created and distributed each day for authors and people who write comments so at 50 cents price that doesn't leave a lot of reason to post if your competing for payouts with thousands of other authors. Even at current prices if we had a huge influx of users the pot would be very low to go around. Some may argue it's low at the moment as a lot of it is going to a small number of authors.
So coming back to the topic of the post, I am not sure it's money that is the main reason for the staying power on steem/it, but obviously that's a huge marketing tool.
The vision, and all the little components of this platform, have gotten it to where it is today. It's certainly not a one trick pony and technically it works very well. From an internal perspective the make or break of Steemit will be how it evolves from here on, and how it capitalises on its tech, it's unique community and huge first mover advantage in this space. Will we see a flood of apps in 2018 or will it peter out with little interest from companies to get involved?
I don't think Steem is all about money albeit one of its key features is using economic penalties and carrots to regulate itself. But again this is just one aspect of the sum of its parts. The other usp's; dpos, pegged assets, steem power, 3 second block time, no cost for transactions ..... The list goes on.
Coming back to the question, Will Steem be in the top 5 to survive a crash?, from an external perspective.
I do see challenges in certain aspects of the system and I wonder if at some stage a platform may copy the best of Steem and tweak it into something that works better, maybe even bringing high profile people or lots of cash to market a new version.
Of course there is always the issue of regulation too. How will Steem be viewed by regulators when they finally take notice.
These are some of the external factors which I think may be issues for Steem down the road.
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Thanks for sharing your thought. I find your arguments very interesting.
I get your point that reducing steem to it's price isn't acknowledging the benefits of the platform fully. It might be because I am a person wo likes facts and number.
On the other hand I see that one of the usp and key elements of blockchain is that you are able (I even would says that you need to) to implement a "game" (business) and align interests by incentivizing behavior of stakeholder. And in this context I think price is relevant and also kind of an indicator how successful this game/business works. So it is less the perspective of getting rich - which might be a side effect.
It is also ab bit what you are mentioning in your first paragraph. To be successful steem price needs to rise if the user base growth. Otherwise the 46k steem would produce to less reward for the authors and therefore steem wouldn't be successful. It is a very tricky thing to finde the right total balance.
That said I agree on the critical success factors like number of apps 2018. We will see how things turn out.
Why nobody has forked steem is a good question. I was thinking about that as well. I think there is golos but that is no innovation. I heard that steemit is one of the view project shielded by patents - but I am not sure about that.
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I am still trying to get my head around Crypto valuations, none of the ones I have come across add up in my head. The use cases, which drive hype for coins, are largely hypothetical and the traditional cashflow valuations are next to impossible. You may also look at market value but the market is not efficient as it stands and is subject to huge information asymmetries and manipulation, as well as being dominated by one coin which drives the valuations of all the other coins.
I agree the Steem price "should" give an indication of sentiment but again for me it seems to come back to information asymmetries. No one really knows about Steem yet! There is no justification for the daily drops and rises on a fundamental basis for this coin. It's all driven by pure speculation at a market level, completely unrelated to this coin. This sort of speculation I fear is going to drive a lot of otherwise sound business ventures into the ground and I hope Steem is not one of the casualties. For example at the moment the SBD price speculation is wreaking havoc with one of the key elements of this currency (A stable pegged asset).
I too like numbers and this has led me to start investigating other alternative measures for keeping an eye on the fundamentals of Steem. This is one coin that actually does have a tangible use case; it has users and has been operating for nearly 2 years. It is a long way past hypothetical. We can track metrics on how activity is growing, development is progressing as well as other external metrics on sentiment. Today I am looking at twitter metrics. Ill hopefully post about it in the next few days. Over time these metrics should give an indication to the network growth and this may be a useful barometer for how valuable this coin should be. The next piece of the puzzle will be to translate the network value to a monetary value.
With regard to patients, I believe that the Steem blockchain is opensource and free to fork, Steemit on the other hand is protected by patients.
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That's an interesting theory - I think that Steem is a cryptocurrency that could survive a long term bear market.
It provides people with a simple, easily monetised platform to blog on. This will be further supported by SMTs, which should help STEEM survive as bloggers are always looking for extra revenue streams, so I'm sure they will add an extra one, even if the returns are not huge.
It provides a simple place for people to voice their opinion.
With Youtube becoming less popular for people looking to make a solid income from, more people are flocking to platforms like DTube - even if the payouts drop significantly, monetisation from DTube is arguably more simple than on Youtube.
There are a lot of whales who are heavily involved in the platform, and a lot of people (including myself) will be promoting Steemit to large audiences this year. As long as Steemit has a large user base (I'm not sure what size would be sufficient though), its community should be strong enough to keep it going. As well as that, Metcalfe's law comes in to play.
Anyway, I think that long term in a bear market, Steem could survive. Whether it's a top 5 to survive or not may be quesitonable, but it would definitely be in my top 10-15 minimum!
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Very intersting to read your arguments. I agree - beside having whales also is a risk during besr markets as I discussed in one of my other posts.
What I would really like to know: What are your top 5 than - putting steem more in the 10-15 range you seem like you have some other projects in your mind which are placed before steem in your opinion. I would love to here which pnes your are thinking off.
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Thank you. I agree that it is also a risk with whales in the market, but can be a benefit too so it really depends on their sentiment.
I do have some projects in mind for my top 5 that I am not disclosing just yet, as I haven't made up my mind between about 20 different cryptos that I've been thinking through - I work in ICO consulting and online cryptocurrency course consulting full time, so I am completely immersed in this world!
What I will say is this:
A platform that digitises real world assets has a long term use case and bright future.
A platform that can automate supply chains is very useful.
A cryptocurrency that can be used as a store of value may be of benefit in the future.
An energy distribution project (or a solution to increased mining difficulty that isn't just PoS or DPoS) may have a bright future, depending on how widely adopted cryptos are.
A decentralised exchange that has a fiat gateway, that may also act as payment system could survive long term in my opinion.
Now those are off the top of my head, and if I was to sit down and list out the key features I'd be looking at for survivors in a bearish market, my answers may be different after a few hours of thinking. I might actually do a post on something like this in a week or so, and put some serious thought in to it! But anyway, I just see some of those features being picked up by corporations and governments etc. more quickly, thus their immediate use cases for high market cap industries would make coins with these features long term survivors. Like I said I need more time to think, but I will let you know when I come to a conclusion! I've been very focused on passive income cryptos as a part of my new blog series which I am running through this week as well as last week, so when I finish that I will have a look at this.
Thanks again for the very interesting post!
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Also I forgot to say, thank you for the re-steem!
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Everybody has been working to collect Steem with a future value evaluation prospect and that would still happen in your scenario, the utilization aspect is super high in the long run. You know how it is with investments, less risky for more sure but lower returns, that's how i see Steem. Lower in crypto terms off course, will still double up in the coming months :-)
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I think so! STEEM tokens have one of the best use cases of any crypto!
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In my eyes it should be. Members of this community have proven dozens of times that it is not all about the money here.
"Come for the money, stay for the community"
Of course lower prices would make growth slower - But they wouldn't destroy the site. The "good users" would stay and keep pushing the services, a few "bad users" only here with the aim of short term gains would leave.
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steemit is defently a top 5 coin can it survive a crash yes. But the question is how much value would it lose in a crash ?. Where POW take advantage of “consensus steemit solves this by DPOS the intelligence of the crowd that is the key to its survival
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