I don't believe the price of Steem is going to drop after the fork. The idea that the whales are going to totally cash out is an assumption that just doesn't make sense.
If you are a whale with, say, 1 million Steem, does it make sense to cash out at .12 or .13 per Steem, or to keep it in Steem and potentially become a millionaire within the next 6 months or so?
The whales would be idiots to cash out now, and I for one do not believe the whales are idiots.
The new fork brings in something those of us in the Internet Marketing community call "scarcity" - less Steem available means higher demand for Steem.
Scarcity ALWAYS leads to more purchases (in this case, investments).
Sooooo....
To sync my money to my belief, I invested $700 of Bitcoin I had saved up in my wallet into Steem Power about 5 hours ago.
5 minutes (maybe 4) after my second and final deposit cleared, the price of Bitcoin dropped $10. YAOW!
An hour later Bitcoin dropped ANOTHER $10. Double YAOW!
And at the time I'm writing this, Bitcoin has dropped ANOTHER $9. Triple double whammy YAOW!
Good timing? You betcha!
I upvoted your post and this response shouldn't be taken as negative but should be considered for anyone bringing money and time to this platform.
You are right that the whales aren't idiots. They are very smart or lucky or a combination of the two. You have to realize that most of them are trying to make a profit. Who is on Steemit to lose money???? No one! So you have to consider how they ended up at 1 Million Steem Power and access their effort / cost basis in getting there. Also you have to realize that this isn't their first rodeo. They have likely been in the cryto-currency space for 3 or more years. They have seen booms and busts before and know how to hedge their risk.
So let's say this. Let's say they mined a huge chunk of their accounts value and that cost them $2,000 in electricity. That was a big investment considering they weren't sure if the platform would ever be launched. But it is here! So now the $2,000 in electricity coupled with the fact that they were mining STEEM instead of another crypto-currency maybe puts them at $4,000 worth of risk. STEEM went super nova and they were not only able to earn 90% interest on their STEEM power but they were able to power down and extract 1% of their value each week while the price was high. In doing so they might have pulled out their cost basis and then some and might mentally feel like they don't need to pull more out right now.
Or they might say, "I'm going to power down for a month and snag another $30,000. Then I'm going to let the rest of the value ride for now."
It all depends where they are at financially outside of Steemit, what their risk tolerance is. What their outlook is on the platform......etc....etc. It is hard to predict for each individual.
I'm not a whale but I found out about Steemit when STEEM was at it's highest. I had a little bit of success with some of my posts and also earned interest on my STEEM Power. I have a set dollar amount that I'm going to take out in my mind right now. Then I will stop my power down and let the rest of the time investment ride. I personally never brought in any money from outside Steemit. My time is what I invested and I personally don't feel like I have been compensated properly for my time at this point. But I have a high reputation, some Steem Power, and this platform has a lot of potential.
In summary we don't know where the price is going to go or what is going to happen with all of this. Only time will tell. Good luck with your strategy!
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Thanks! Great comment. I know several whales power down temporarily and pull out some cash for whatever personal reasons or needs they have. I read some posts earlier that assumed a mass power down was going to take place after the hard fork, and that the whales were going to completely cash out and essentially get out. Certainly a few of them might, but I doubt the vast majority of them will do that.
A price drop might happen initially, but this is no common, lame cryptocurrency. This community on the whole will stay strong and remain active, and the overall improvements to the system that are coming now and over the next year will result in prosperity for all of us. That's my bet! Lol. :)
I just don't want people to panic, so I wrote this post to show that not only am I not panicking, but putting money into this right now. Some others have been doing it too, and I wanted to add my voice about where I stand, even if the power of my voice is weak.
I really believe the compensation for your time is coming. :)
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Absolutely! People are way too quick to judge the Steem market and what it may do. I think now is the time to invest as well.
I'm all in too. I put it all into Steem Power. Set my posts to pay 100% SP and all. That's the way to go.
I think you made a very good investment.
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Thanks Chris! You get your gang of male Bettas any girls yet? I'm gonna keep bugging you till you do. Lol. Poor little lonely Betta boys. :(
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You are taking a risk, we all are but my philosophy is basically - NO RISK NO REWARD.
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Exactly. If you always swing for the fences, you'll strike out a lot, but if you never swing for the fences, you'll also never know what it's like to hit a home run...and I want a home run.
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Spot on.
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I know you are RIGHT :)
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Watching a few of YOUR recent videos helped me decide to go for it, Craig. I'm really glad I discovered them and you. :)
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what you wrote in this post are my exact thoughts on this issue of whales cashing out, that would be stupid right now or anytime soon. I had not said anything like this in my videos, but I will in my next "steem fomo" video
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I'm looking forward to seeing it. You rock, Craig! :)
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I actually put in $600 at $1 when I first started haha..
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It's going to get back to that and beyond. The people who left are gone, but the strong remained. More of us came in, and nothing is going to stop this community. We just needed the founders to get involved and now they have. Great days are coming for the Steemit community.
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This is the attitude I wish more people around here would preach. We could use a positive message!
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Thank you very much! And I appreciate your other comment as well. :)
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Great! I love to see more people have more steem power! We will have a great system here once steem power gets spread out even more.
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Yup. And now is the time to buy, imo. I'm going to be investing more over the next 10 days or so, and I had not invested at all until today. My confidence in Steem and Steemit has reached new heights. Dan and Ned lead the pack and have committed to NOT powering down for at least 3 months after the fork. I think many of the whales will follow their lead. We'll see.
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make money
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If you like you can see all the biggest power ups here, you are in )
https://steemdb.com/powerup
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Cool! Thanks for that link. I didn't know about that list. Bitcoin down big today. Maybe a price correction in progress, maybe not.
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I was doing the same thing and I made the list. Thanks for the link.
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Shared on twitter
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Disclaimer: I am just a bot trying to be helpful.
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Great! Thanks. :)
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I can say that I am certainly looking to only increase my holdings over the next 3-6 months, however I am going to do that as determined by the conditions of the market. Right now there is a bit too much uncertainty for me to buy more, but I am certainly not going to sell no matter how low it goes (worst case scenario).
However I believe you are probably right, people aren't going to sell, and this move will make things much more attractive for short and medium term speculators. Should be really positive going forward.
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I think you'll do really well with the amount you have in Steem right now. I'd like to see some newbies, or those with less than 1000 Steem, get in now with an amount they can afford. I'd hate to see anyone miss out on this. And even if I'm wrong and the price does drop, this is a stable system (and soon it will be more stable), and this community is strong. Steem WILL go up. Like people say, 'not a question of if, but when'. My bet is very soon.
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Yeah! I too would like to see a lot more people get to the 1000 steem range, because when this platform does grow, and it will, they will be able to give out rewards to such a wide variety of content. The key to fair spreading of rewards is to have a lot of people with the power to award it through voting. So you're right. So very right.
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Somewhere I heard; "The risk-takers of today are the titans of tomorrow."
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I tried to look it up online and couldn't find it, but I like it! :)
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Wow ang galing :) sana ako rin
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You're doing good also! We'll be rich before this time next year. :)
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Hopefully, I just need to find a source to invest. San ho kayo sa pinas sis?
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Surigao City.
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You got a good point, It's all a risk, But if you don't take risk you will never get nowhere. Upvote from me!
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So true, and much thanks! :)
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I hope you make a fortune :)
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Thank you and I hope you do too! :)
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Me too : D
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Good thinking and smart move. Steem on.
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Thanks!
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up voted and followed
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Thanks and followed you back. Looks like you're geared up to knock it out of the park yourself. :)
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I agree.
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Thanks for commenting and nice artwork by the way. :)
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Thank you very much!
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The hard fork gives long-term scarcity, and short-term abundance. A huge quantity of Steem will suddenly become available as liquid on the day of the hardfork; some of that Steem will be sold. I don't know how much. I just know that there will be an instantaneous and large increase in the effective supply.
Long term, sure - the supply of steem has been decreased. Short term? I don't see it.
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Yes, I know what you are saying and that it is true. The principle of scarcity, with regard to how I'm defining it, is more perceptual in the immediate, short term, and perception is a powerful influence on buyer - or in this case, investor - behavior. The more sophisticated traders and investors will know the difference of course, but the casual investors likely will not. And just "knowing" that the long term supply is being shortened should help gain traction with even some of the sophisticated group. Nevertheless, speculation is a wild animal. I do think we're going to go up, not just because of the scarcity, or perceived scarcity, but from the other changes being implemented as well.
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Cool. I'll be pretty surprised if Steem doesn't lose a lot of mkt cap in the next 3 months, but if I knew how to call cryptocurrencies I'd already be a millionaire. I won't be surprised if I'm completely wrong. :) And I do think the changes will be helpful in the long run.
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Best of luck with your investment. Hope it works out for you!
The price of Steem appeared to be approaching a bottom before the changes were announced. As you say, the scarcity factor should signal an improvement in price. However as the saying goes, "the market can remain irrational for longer than you can remain solvent!" So you never really know...
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Yeah, the irrational factor is always the bummer of it all. Lol. Thanks!
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Very timely and relevant post @joanaltres!!! Upvoted and followed.
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Thank you very much! I took a look at your photo posts. Followed you back. I like that silkie chicken. Haven't seen one like that before. People have a lot of chickens (and noisy roosters too) where I live. Small compared to USA chickens - just like our people. Lol. Are you still traveling in the jeep?
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you got a point
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Thank you, mammasitta! Things are going to go our way toward the positive. I have no doubt. :)
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It is a rather risky move, now if it is capital that one is allowed to lose, go ahead.
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How would you lose? The price of Steem now has been pretty steady between .10 and .13. Even if I'm totally wrong and the price drops all the way to .01, how long do you think it's going to stay at .01? It would be a risk if the community of Steemit abandoned it completely, but with the majority of people powering up and continuing to post content, the price drop would only be temporary. You certainly shouldn't invest your life savings into Steem, but at worst your investment is only a short term risk. Steem is not going to stagnate and die, because this community is not going to stagnate and die.
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Wowza!
Hi new whale :D
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Lol! Whale someday maybe. I did find out that I'm now a dolphin - probably a baby dolphin. :) Thanks!
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This post has been linked to from another place on Steem.
Learn more about and upvote to support linkback bot v0.5. Flag this comment if you don't want the bot to continue posting linkbacks for your posts.
Built by @ontofractal
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a pinay who knows alot. you are among the few!
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Thank you! Proper education and good influences helped shape me. Unfortunately, in this part of the World, not everyone has those advantages; partly due to a corrupt government that has ripped off the people and destroyed the future opportunities of the youth.
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Hmm, that sounds familiar to the situation where I am. But we now have steemit, and you are spot on!
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Nepal is like that? Sad. But yes, Steemit and Steem is a grand opportunity for the masses to find some relief from the situation for themselves. I'm excited about the future for others who will come in when this opportunity becomes more clear to see so they can grab it.
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well said, i didnt want to sound like mean as i gave you kudos. i am also pinoy and in the filippines and to find people your kind of people here is sorta luxury, rare.
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Oh, you didn't sound mean at all. I took it as a great compliment. :) Thank you very much!
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I agree. The speculators can be flushed if anything.
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I almost missed this comment. Well, I did miss it. Lol. But that's right, flushed. :)
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