Day 1 of Why STEEM is Undervalued

somethingsubtle (56) · 7 years ago

Just checking, does MAU stand for Mean Active Users?

So, your argument is:

Networks have increasing value based on increasing nodes in the network (up to an limit).
Steemit is a network.
Steemit is a growing network.
Therefore Steemit has increasing value.

The assumption here is that the mean active users will never plummet or be massively corrected.

To back that up, I'd be interested in seeing the churn rate of accounts into inactivity. How many people jump on the network only to leave some time later?

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2 votes

socky (72) · 7 years ago

Great question and digging into the inactive accounts!

MAU is often used to gauge most any user platform such as Facebook, Twitter, and Reddit. It stands for Monthly Active Users. If a user has not been active in any way such as post, comment, upvote in excess of 30 days, then they are no longer counted in MAU. These accounts may or may not be dead, but the lack of use determines if the account should be counted.

Let's take Facebook for example. They have long since had more accounts created than every living human on earth. Clearly the total accounts are not the way to gauge the health of a social media platform. Last time I checked, Facebook had somewhere around 1.7 billion MAU. That was before the Facebook selling information scandal. There are more than 7 billion humans on earth. Since there are more accounts than humans, then there must be over 5 billion accounts that are inactive.

Each platform has different retention rates. MAU is a way to help compare the health of the different platforms.

We have to be careful of using Value for replacement of price. Value is what a network is valued at. Some business networks have value in the assets, such as buildings, land lines, radio networks, employees, merchandise, sales, etc. Facebook has very little assets and employees. In fact, they often hire freelance work instead of keeping a staff of programmers. It is extremely low overhead. Facebook value is primarily based from advertising, sales, and services. That creates incredible profits for Facebook. That is why they are in the top 10 highest market cap companies in the stock market.

STEEM has several platforms that can organically grow. The difference is these platforms don't have to rely on sales or advertising. The value is in the network itself, and the price of STEEM will very likely follow value.

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durianwalker (49) · 7 years ago

Nice exponential growth concept. A while back I came across a youtube video about the same law or statistical opinion. It's interesting to see where steemit or steem will go. I guess its just common knowlkedge. Like what appreciation per year is 7% and the valuation will maybe 10x or 100x that if i'm not mistaken. thank you for this insight.

2 votes

socky (72) · 7 years ago

It really depends on the number of active accounts.

Which came first, the chicken or the egg?

In our situation, the lack of exchanges and lack of users are the largest obstacle.
My opinion is to work on the exchanges first, then the users will come. I think STEEM Inc. has the opposite opinion.

I think it will happen either way. It is just my opinion that improving exchanges and availability will make it come that much faster.

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qiyi (54) · 7 years ago (edited)

Other phenomena in nature include half-life, as in radioactive decay or metabolic removal. The opposite of that is a sigmoid-like duplication, for example shown below for DNA: Fowler SWU Presentation 2011 Slide 7.jpg

The limiting factor is availability of raw materials required for growth. A similar phenomenon could be at play for cryptocurrency as it reaches some "critical mass."

socky (72) · 7 years ago

Interesting.

The beauty is that we are a really long way off from critical mass.

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mepatriot (69) · 7 years ago

I couldn't agree more, the POTENTIAL here is unbelievable. This platform is truly unique, and once the worst non-egalitarian aspects are cleaned up some, and when a reasonable policy for preventing malicious downvoting is in place, I agree, the sky is truly the limit! Truly EXPONENTIAL growth, as you've shown in charts, WILL BE not only possible but inevitable. As we cross 1 million users, with a $3 SBD, we can think forward to 2 million users, and $12 SBD, then 4 million users and $48 SBD, and so on and so on, until we absorb BTC and ETH, and TO THE MOON!

socky (72) · 7 years ago

I have a suspicion that Bitcoin has seen its best days. (Sorry to Bitcoin lovers, I could be wrong) Most exchanges are moving to replace bitcoin with their own trading pair. It's happening all over the place. My opinion (so far) that STEEM won't be the one that unseats bitcoin. But wouldn't that be great! One thing interesting is that our own marketplace while extremely low volume is poised to be a marketplace for future SMTs. I "hope" that they become popular enough to make our marketplace a real place to trade. That could give STEEM an advantage.

The simple fact that the social media growth is explosive is reason enough for me to invest. I didn't take advantage of that during the Facebook, Google, and Youtube opportunities in the past. Now I'm changing that.

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mepatriot (69) · 7 years ago

Facebook, Google and Youtube can just keep right on shooting themselves in the foot by abusing their clientele's information, censoring conservative thoughts, etc. They can't suffer enough for me.

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joetunex (67) · 7 years ago

Very true @mepatriot I see it as they are shooting themselves in the foot as well.
The growth for steeemit is limitless, with time its going to be huge.

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tsnaks (63) · 7 years ago

Undervalued*

tsnaks (63) · 7 years ago

But i agree with your points of steem being undervalued

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socky (72) · 7 years ago (edited)

Thanks. Stupid typo. It is fixed now

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