The last week there where many youtube video's keeping up a good spirit about bitcoin. We mean: "bullish" video' s. We have seen it before. The screengrab underneath shows you what really happened:
killed bull
We got out February 24th 1:05am CET on a stop limit. We see all these channels - by now we perceive them rather as contra indication than an indication. Halving, golden crosses - the whole jimbolingo newspeak tells little about actual price movement. We just took 9.9K for our BTC, fully expecting a dump (that indeed occurred 3 hours later. By now Bitcoin crashed trough the 9.6K and there is no end in sight. We keep track, expecting a bounce at some point. Might be hours, might be days - might even be longer.
What is the psychology of these enthusiastic youtubers urging their viewers "not to panic sell" and to dream about Bicoin hitting 10K, 20K, 40K, 100K any time in the near future? Planting a tree and watch it grow? If we would have any confidence at all in a long term high value of bitcoin (in fact we keep that open!), we will buy back in. When charts indicate we should. The result is having more bitcoin than that we started with. By trading, not by just buying.
An argument for hodling that makes me sick:
the IF argument
If you would have bought bitcoin 12 January 2009...
If you would have put a cent in the bank in the time of Jesus...
Well - in the time of Jesus we were not around as far as we can remember and in January 2009 we did not know bitcoin existed. So what value has the If argument? Counterfactuals are what they are: counterfactuals. It is a typical argument in snake oil sales. Now or never. Last chance. This deal will never come back. Opportunity of a life time. All FOMO. As far as we are concerned, bitcoin can go back to 400$ or 4 million dollar. As long as it moves we will trade it.
<br /><center><hr/><em>Posted from my blog with <a href='https://wordpress.org/plugins/steempress/'>SteemPress</a> : https://cryptmove.com/2020/02/25/dead-wrong-the-if-argument/ </em><hr/></center>