The HUI was up 4.99 points (2.79%) with a close at 183.88. On the daily chart, the fast stochastic is up and well out of the oversold territory. The slow stochastic maintains positive crossover but still is in oversold territory. MACD is closing its gap but no crossover and in negative territory.
GLD was up $0.19 (0.16%) with a close at 115.47. On the daily chart the fast stochastic maintained positive crossover and inched its way out of oversold territory. The slow stochastic is flat and in oversold territory. MACD is still down and in negative territory.
SLV was up $0.10 (0.68%) with a close at 14.83. On the daily chart both the fast and slow stochastic have positive crossover. The fast stochastic is edging out of oversold territory. The slow stochastic remains in oversold territory. MACD its trending downward and in negative territory.
Today in the HUI, finally we heard the snort of El Toro the Bull. We also had two gaps filled. The first at 181.64 that formed yesterday and the second at 177.56 that formed back on December 28th.
In the first 5 minutes of the session the Bears drove the HUI to a low of 177.40 but from there it was all about the Bull. It is written in the Book of Job: "When I made the cloud the garment thereof, and thick darkness a swaddlingband for it, And brake up for it my decreed place, and set bars and doors, And said, Hitherto shalt thou come, but no further: and here shall thy proud waves be stayed?" Who hath said to the HUI thou shall come, but no further?
The main point of this blog is to demonstrate that the HUI trades in an orderly fashion. Daily and short term (30 minute bars) target numbers are published well in advance. If on the high, low or close of a bar is at one of these daily (within 0.50 points) or at one of these short term (within 0.02 points on the 30 minute bar) we have a hit. There were no daily target number hits today but the 30 minute target numbers lit up the board.
The July 3rd Blog stated "With the Bears seemingly in charge I will add the following target numbers to the intraday (30 minute charts): 180.61; 179.76; 178.99; 178.4; 177.38 and 175.78" The June 27th blog posted the following bear target numbers : "Intraday Bear Target numbers: 191.51; 190.66; 189.89; 189.3; 188.28; 186.68; 185.04; 184.06; and 182.32.
So we have a rather long series of target numbers that show up at the high low or close of 30 minute bars. We have had hits at the target numbers everyday since June 27th. Today was no exception and we had multiple hits:
Short Term Bear Target Numbers hit Today were:
184.06 4:30 (15:30) high of the bar and high of the day
182.32
180.61 9:30 close (actual 180.62)
179.76 10:30 low (actual 179.77)
178.99
178.38 9:30 low of the bar and low of the day (actual 178.40)
How about that both the high and the low of the day hit these Bear target numbers. What does that mean, a Bull trap for sure because clearly these numbers are still controlling. But wait it can not be that easy and alas it is not.
If this move is over and the low came at 178.40 the the following Bull target numbers are generated: 182.55; 183.90; 185.12; 186.07; 187.68; 190.23; 192.84; and 194.40. The second Bull target number on the list is 183.90 and what was the close today 183.88 another hit, what, how can this be?
So what is up for tomorrow; if the Bears are in charge look for their target numbers to still dominate the market even in an uptrend leading to a potential Bull Trap. If the Bulls have started something new, then we should stop seeing these Bear target numbers and start seeing just the Bull target numbers being hit. We also had a huge outside up bar which must be respected, if tomorrow the Bulls take out the high then this move has some legs.
I still think there will be one more opportunity to short the HUI before we see the final bottom of the move and a summer rally. If we get it I will be short. When these moves end there is usually an exhaust down then the slow walk up.
GLD and SLV nothing that really says buy, perhaps a further blast up. The trade of the day would have been SLV at the open then sell midday, if you caught it awesome.
These are just my thoughts and not advice. I hope that at the very least, these numbers and how the market tracks them is something for you to think about. I am always amazed. The target number of 177.38 was posted several days ago and generated back on June 27th. Where did the market turn today - 177.40 - how is that possible? Who is the hidden hand that moves this market? If you enjoy or are slightly amused, upvote, follow and please comment.
As for tomorrow, good luck and happy hunting.