After the halving: Steem inflation vs. BTC inflation

remlaps-lite (76) in steemtalk • 5 months ago (edited)

As you're most likely aware, the Bitcoin (BTC) halving happened yesterday. Accordingly, I thought it would be useful to publish a post-halving snapshot of the STEEM vs. BTC chart that I created for my quarterly inflation posts.

In terms of New Steem per day / New BTC per day, here's what we might now expect in coming years.

Noteworthy

At present, 199 new STEEM will be produced for every new BTC. This is roughly double the pre-halving rate (of course).
Over the next year, that declines to 198 STEEM per BTC
Over the next four years, it declines to 184 STEEM per BTC
The next time the ratio of new STEEM / new BTC would be expected to surpass current levels is at the next halving, circa 2028.
The post-halving rate of decline for new STEEM / new BTC will decline more sharply after each of the next two halvings (and part of the 3^rd).
I believe that this is the first four-year period in Steem's history where the number of new STEEM per day would be expected to decline in proportion to new BTC per day. (maybe it's even the first 1 year period)
At the time of the 4^th BTC doubling (circa 2040), the new STEEM vs. new BTC ratio will have only increased by about a single doubling.

Caveats

This doesn't include token burning initiatives like #burnsteem25
This doesn't include reductions to the virtual supply that might arise from STEEM price changes
Since the current STEEM price is below the SBD print threshold, price changes cannot increase the virtual supply or daily new STEEM production above these projections.
This doesn't include potential rule changes or parameter changes that could be introduced by Steem witnesses or BTC miners.

Thank you for your time and attention.

As a general rule, I up-vote comments that demonstrate "proof of reading".

Steve Palmer is an IT professional with three decades of professional experience in data communications and information systems. He holds a bachelor's degree in mathematics, a master's degree in computer science, and a master's degree in information systems and technology management. He has been awarded 3 US patents.

^{Pixabay license, source}

Reminder

Visit the /promoted page and #burnsteem25 to support the inflation-fighters who are helping to enable decentralized regulation of Steem token supply growth.

steemtalk tokenomics steemexclusive burnsteem25 inflation

5 months ago by remlaps-lite (76)

$51.86

Authors get paid when people like you upvote their post.
If you enjoyed what you read here, create your account today and start earning FREE STEEM!

Sort Order:

Trending

[-]

moecki (71) · 5 months ago

I would be delighted if you would publish your STEEM metrics again. Especially when the STEEM price was a bit higher, I would be interested in the amount of powerdowns...
Well, I can work out the amount myself, but your graph over time better illustrates a possible increase.

$0.36

6 votes

[-]

remlaps-lite (76) · 5 months ago

Unfortunately, I haven't been able to get the powerdown data ever since the big performance issues last year. This SteemDB.io page hasn't updated since September 4, and that's what I was using to build the powerdown graph. I'd have to rebuild the data by going through the operations block by block. A big part of the reason why I stopped publishing those posts was that several different steemdb.io pages that I needed had all stopped updating. I do keep an eye on pending powerdowns, but I haven't been recording them. (it's presently back down in the 300-400K per week range, after spending some weeks or months up near 900k or a million.)

I guess it wouldn't be too difficult to slap together a script to update the last 7-8 months. Maybe I'll spend some time on that in the next week or three...