A disturbance in the Atlantic Ocean is expected to develop into a tropical storm as it approaches the coast of North Carolina by Friday night. This impending storm threatens to bring strong winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous rip currents northward towards New Jersey over the upcoming weekend.
Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Watch:
The National Hurricane Center issued a tropical storm warning spanning from Cape Fear, North Carolina, to Fenwick Island, Delaware, on Thursday. This warning includes areas like Albemarle and Pamlico sounds in North Carolina, the Tidal Potomac River south of Cobb Island, Maryland, and Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach, Maryland. Additionally, a storm surge watch is in effect from just north of Wilmington, North Carolina, to the Potomac River in Virginia, just south of the Delaware state line.
Expected Rainfall and Flooding:
North Carolina and Virginia are expected to receive between 3 to 5 inches of rainfall by Saturday, with some areas potentially experiencing up to 7 inches. Meanwhile, the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England can anticipate 2 to 4 inches of rainfall from late Friday into Sunday. This amount of rain could result in localized urban and small stream flooding.Areas stretching from Surf City, North Carolina, to Chincoteague, Virginia, may face flooding of 2 to 4 feet if the storm surge coincides with high tide. Moreover, portions of the Outer Banks should anticipate a rise in floodwaters between 3 and 5 feet. The lower Chesapeake Bay might see a surge causing flooding of 2 to 4 feet, with 1 to 3 feet expected farther up the bay.
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Storm Path and Tornado Risk:
The tropical disturbance is projected to continue its northward trajectory, with the center of the cyclone approaching the North Carolina coast within the warning area on Friday night and Saturday. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) referred to this system as "Potential Tropical Cyclone 16" and stated that it was moving northward at 7 mph on Thursday night. A northwest-north path is expected on Friday. While a few tornadoes are possible in the mid-Atlantic states on Friday and Saturday, the NHC does not anticipate this storm developing into a hurricane.
Naming and Preparedness:
If this system attains tropical storm strength, it will be named Ophelia, becoming the 16th named storm of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season. North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper and the state's department of public safety have urged residents in eastern and central parts of the state to prepare for tropical weather conditions over the next few days. They have warned of the potential for downed trees, power outages, and flooding, emphasizing the importance of staying informed through the latest weather forecasts.
"Preparing for tropical weather is essential, and having a family emergency plan and kit is crucial," said Governor Cooper in a statement on Thursday. North Carolina Emergency Management director Will Ray affirmed the department's readiness to provide necessary resources to address the situation.