It’s minimum tax paid for the year that matters. If they were advising their clients well then next year there wouldn’t be any refund due at all. No one wants a refund! They want to owe the maximum they can, assuming a fixed obligation, that doesn’t incur penalty and interest in excess of their opportunity benefit from a delayed payment.
I mean, it’s a lot of words. But why don’t they say they reduce taxes, instead of increase refund? It’s seems odd to rub people’s faces in the thing that represents a screw-up, especially when a delayed payment is worth 4%-6% gross per year at low risk.