September 17, 2018
By Truthraider.com
According to legendary investor, Tim Draper, we will see a 80 Trillion dollar market cap within 15 years. I tend to agree with him. He has many reasons to remain bullish on bitcoin. For me, the reason for such high expectations stem mainly from examining the inner working of the financial systems that would drive such a forecast. Our loyal community of bitcoin maximalists will own the coin regardless of the noise around us. What will drive the new interest and mass adoption will be a variety of factors. I will go over a few reasons that I believe make his prediction viable.
Fiat Collapse in Emerging Markets. All across the planet nations are losing confidence in their fiat backed currencies. This is a trend that we have seen in the last few years. It is due to poor regulations, overspending, and lack of state run financial knowledge. For example, Venezuela has 40 Trillion plus in oil and is essentially a failed state. This trend will continue in all emerging markets that don’t start converting to bitcoin. It should seem very basic to not overspend, but most of the developing world always mess this up.
Global Derivates Market. The global derivates market sits at around 1.4–2.0 Quadrillion dollars. Yes, those numbers. Not the trillions that are mentioned in the news. The reality is that their is a secondary financial layer that most don’t understand in the global banking system. This system has no possible recovery. Bitcoin is the only solution. I believe this solution was chosen a very long time ago. The name bitcoin just came in 2009. The idea of a digital currency actually came from the 1980's.
Globalization and International Trade Costs. The cost of globalization and international trade is utterly ridiculous. The world spends hundreds of billions of dollars a year in expenses, currency swaps, and cross monetary exchange policies. These ideas and practices are from the time before computers, and especially now that we have bitcoin. Transactions should be safe and efficient. The international trade community understands this. If bitcoin isn’t efficient enough to handle this, some other blockchain project will fill the gap. The current system is an utter mess. Smart nation will lead the way, others will follow.
Over Taxation and Social Programs. Nations around the world have begun a futile effort in over taxing their citizens. This can’t be more obvious than anyone living in Europe. At this point, most europeans are giving more than half their income to the state. As this continues to trend higher, people will break free and see bitcoin as a way to leave the current state backed fiat system. The second step will be that the state will back bitcoin. This will be a win-win for everyone. Why? because bitcoin will be more cost effective and efficient. The cost of managing a fiat backed system is not worth the effort. We already live in a digital world. Now is the time to face that fact. People around the world realize that the services they get don’t equal their tax rates. This will be a no brainer in 5–10 years.
Debt to GDP. No nation on earth has a solution to fixing debt to GDP. The old school ideas are to try and outgrow the debt, link your currency to Gold or assets, or trade your way out are unrealistic. the only way we have ever successfully gotten on the right track is through innovation. What do I mean? Well, Industrial Revolution, Internet adoption, etc. Realizing the Bitcoin and blockchain provide an opportunity for all nations to innovate our way from disaster is crucial. This shouldn’t be controversial, but logical.
Bitcoin Mining. Mining bitcoin is currently done by amateurs and a small independent companies. Yes, some are making billions, like Bitmain. However, the majority of current miners are independent people trying to mine their way out of debt. The real boom in mining will come in May 2020, after the next Bitcoin halving. I predict that when that happens we will see large scale state sponsored (or at least funded) bitcoin mining operations competing at the global scale. Think about the last gold rush and it will be comparable on the world scale. Bitcoin mining will be the number one driver of adoption in my opinion. It will succeed. Oh, It already has.
Decentralization of Everything. In the future everything will be decentralized or at least on a blockchain that can provide a ledger to track. Nations around the world see the practicality of decentralization and accountability because it relieves them of the stress of failing to run it. The systems will run the process. At least we hope that is the case. We haven’t really had large scale decentralized systems, exchanges, or process on a global scale. If successful, these will replace thousands of corporations current business models and the economic boom will be tremendous.
Overall, I believe that an 80 Trillion dollar market cap is achievable in 15 years. Many of the things I mentioned above have to take place. We will have to replace existing systems and processes to actually reach that high of a number. It can’t be done independently. It will take everyone to make this happen. In the end I believe we will get there. The struggle is half the battle.