Bitcoin (BTC):
Current price: 5785.50 EUROne day moving average: 5815.82 EUR
One day standard deviation (volatility): 19.23 EUR (0.33%)
One day max deviation: 43.73 EUR (0.76%)
Bitcoin Cash (BCH):
Current price: 653.38 EUROne day moving average: 656.50 EUR
One day standard deviation (volatility): 3.02 EUR (0.46%)
One day max deviation: 10.29 EUR (1.57%)
Ethereum (ETH):
Current price: 418.77 EUROne day moving average: 421.24 EUR
One day standard deviation (volatility): 1.73 EUR (0.41%)
One day max deviation: 6.85 EUR (1.64%)
Litecoin (LTC):
Current price: 71.82 EUROne day moving average: 72.49 EUR
One day standard deviation (volatility): 0.43 EUR (0.60%)
One day max deviation: 1.13 EUR (1.57%)
Knowing the one day standard deviation of a currency may give a decent estimate of the day's lower and upper price bounds. For instance, if one wishes to buy at a local minimum, placing a buy order one or two standard deviations below the moving average has proven to be a decent entry point. Once the order fills, a sell order can be placed one or two standard deviations above the buy price, depending on one's risk tolerance or how quickly one wants to sell.
Disclaimer: It is not possible to predict the future. I do not take responsibility for your losses, regardless of whether they are caused by bad advice or wrongful statistics. Never invest more than you can afford to lose. Investing too much increases the chance of panic selling. These statistics are automatically generated as daytrading tools for myself, but I'm glad if others find them useful.
Price data is pulled from the CoinMarketCap API.
Do you find that calculating the standard deviation, and trading based off of the data leads to a usual day to day gain? Or does it depend on the market outlook for the day?
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Since daytrading is all about utilizing the predictable(?) instability of the price on a day to day-basis (or on a week to week or month to month basis for that matter) in periods where the price fluctuations are somewhat stable, one would like to be able to have a rough estimate of when the price is about to turn within a cycle. While knowing that the day's standard deviation doesn't directly tell you how large the difference is between a peak and a bottom, the ratio is often proportional, so if yesterday's difference between the highest and lowest price was $50, but the standard deviation is decreasing, you can assume that the distance between high and low is decreasing proportionally. Note that this does not predict the future, but it gives a simple number which makes it easiier to compare the average difference between high and low between days.
But to answer your question, It depends on the market trend. It's difficult to make money in a downwards market. Daytrading is great in periods when not much is happening, but the price is still volatile. I guess that the standard deviation also can be used to determine whether daytrading is the right move on a specific day.
i know that I claimed that it's both impossible to predict the future, but still that standard deviation can help you make assumptions, but there is also an underlying assumption here that there is a certain slowness in the system. That one day is not doo different from the previous one. That isn't always true, though.
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