Doom theory - all markets are manipulated and evil, keep it all of the exchange?
I listen to Bix Weir quite a lot on his YouTube podcast. He is a smart guy with a lot of fantastical theories. Some of these theories are embellished with a sprinkling of false premises thrown in. A quick example is his theories on Silver manipulation. Having worked on a trade surveillance system at a metals exchange, I can attest these exchanges are doing all they can to try and identify rogue trading.
Similarly, a lot of trading going on in financial institutions is based upon portfolios running books for clients. They aren't setting about to defraud the system but are instead honest people trying to make a living like everybody else.
Admittedly, perhaps the regulators don't have the governmental teeth to punish the institutions themselves but to claim the entire enterprise is a cabal is disappointing.
Having said this - I am convinced all markets are manipulated and rigged. I wrote a post on my own blog which explains the following;
- Assume all markets are manipulated.
- Focus more on trying to work out the manipulators next moves.
- Try to anticipate good actors who could move the market.
You can view that post here. http://www.zakwillis.com/post/2019/07/17/theory-on-curreny-bitcoin-price
Without further ado, why hodling does not always pay
It really is just a question of mathematics.
- Initial holding of £1500 to buy 0.5 BTC priced at £3000.
- Sell .5 BTC at £11,000.
- Take £4000 profit + the original £1500
- Buy 0.57 Bitcoin at £7000 with £4000.
- Put the original £1500 towards a holiday or buy some gold.
Now, to acquire .57 BTC at the original £3000 would have cost £2130, an extra £630. We may state the extra hassle involved is not worth it. Certainly, a lot of events has to happen to make the above trade cycle possible but undoubtedly it happens.