Trend-spotting is as much about what NOT to do as what TO do
The art and science of trend-spotting are what gives your eyes into the future. And yes — it’s both an art and a science. So how do you capitalize on the right trends at the right times to discover something new and disruptive?
Trend-spotting isn’t luck — don’t get me wrong, you can get lucky, but learn to spot trends instead and you won’t need luck. There’s a hidden order to how we find new trends and the ideas they spur. Looking ahead and anticipating change takes the right combination of multiple perspectives brought together in just the right way. It’s as much about anticipating trends to avoid as well as finding the trends capitalize on.
Sometimes the best way to figure out what to do is by figuring out what not to do. Anticipating change is a key practice for success in trend-spotting. We’re living in a period of increasingly rapid change. Trends help you anticipate the new normal.
But because we can’t predict which ideas will collide and fuse, many of us cling to boring productivity and efficiency. The easiest way to discover an idea, it would seem, is to borrow one.
After all, nobody anticipated that trend-spotting itself would become a trend.
Whether trend-spotting identifies your company’s next disruptor or its future runaway success, watching for what’s taking shape on your industry’s horizon can yield vital information about where to look and how to think about this reimagined world.
I’ve been building brands for clients for decades and have learned that, at times, you have to tell clients what not to do.
We once told a room full of executives, “Let’s be honest… Walgreens is a place where people go to keep from dying, not to start living.”
Those same executives then turned to us to help reposition Walgreens as the place where consumers go to get, live, and stay well.
If you’re looking to find the right trends on which to capitalize, here are three ways to do it.
Look for the trends that are disappearing
Companies often make the mistake of only focusing on rising trends. To spot the newest trends before they hit, you need to pay attention to the trends that are no longer working. If you can identify why a trend is ending, you’ll be able to spot space for a new trend.
In 2012, Idea Booth and Walgreens launched the first national brand intended to appeal to a younger, health-conscious consumer… Ology. Initially, Walgreens wanted to market Ology as a “green product,” believing that was what their health-conscious consumers wanted. We knew better.
Why? Trend-spotting.
Although Walgreens had good intentions, the green market was misleading and oversaturated. But there was another trend on the horizon. We told our client it was time to “skip green, go clean.”
From the onset, everyone assumed health-conscious consumers wanted green-friendly, biodegradable, “what’s good for you is good for the environment” products. But that’s not what the data told us.
Scientific evidence was emerging left and right linking many of the hidden toxic chemicals in household products to the widespread increase of health disorders in the United States. And, after a feeble attempt in the 70s, the government was considering passing legislation that would force companies to be upfront and disclose what chemicals were in their products.
In reality, the “green” trend was dying, and only about half of the consumers at the time believed that green products were actually good for them or the environment.
Our trendspotters were able to predict that the clean movement was going to redefine household products by identifying these key industry trends and compiling and analyzing them to develop marketing insights.
Question the Question
What made Walgreens the right fit for the clean movement? Why now?
Asking the question “Why hasn’t someone done this before?” can lead to valuable insights and predicting trends. There are hardly any new ideas left.
In Walgreens' case, other, smaller brands had already begun selling products that aligned with the philosophy of the clean movement, they weren’t able to do so on a national level. These businesses were selling clean items like baby shampoo for $14 a bottle because they weren’t capable of producing it cheaper. What are you more likely to buy — a $14 bottle of clean baby shampoo or a $3 one with ingredients you don’t know too much about?
Because Walgreens is one of the biggest retailers in the United States, they were able to purchase and produce in larger quantities than the smaller brands. This allowed Ology to be the first nationally accessible and affordable brand formulated to be free of harmful chemicals. Ology featured a line of baby and personal care products, as well as household cleaners.
Build the Marketplace
As Henry Ford famously said, if he asked people what they wanted they would have said a faster horse. Steve Jobs lived by a similar motto — consumers don’t know what they want. How can they know they would want something that doesn’t exist? Your job as a marketer and trend-spotter is to create that demand. Only then can you control the story.
In the end, we steered Walgreens away from the declining and oversaturated green trend, which could have led to disastrous losses in revenue, and instead correctly predicted the right trend, which helped them pioneer one of the fastest-growing clean product lines. Ology was not only the right product at the right time based on data, trends, and supply and demand, it also reflected Walgreen’s new brand promise to be where consumers go to start living.
Trend-spotting isn’t easy or straightforward, but when done well, it can highlight the importance of not doing one thing, and instead of finding creative ways to expand into the next big thing.
Ron Gibori Head Creative Mind @ideabooth | Inc. Columnist | I rally the misfits to create the best stuff. Check out the latest @IdeaBooth | http://idea-booth.com