(28.89) The trump of the hardest Iranians to be embroiled?
Declaration of the departure of the Donald Trump from the Iran Treaty has proved to be critical of many analysts. According to their estimates, the announcement of the trump was not able to persuade Iran to come out of this deal till the end. Most analysts agreed at least two things a few weeks or months before the announcement of the trump.
The first is that the announcement of the trump will be completely foiled and the threat of nuclear weapons competition threatens to hit the Middle East more unrest than ever before.
Secondly, because of this announcement of the Trump, the pressure of hardliners on Iran's liberal reformists increased a lot.
Almost all analysts agree with these two conclusions. Iranian hardliners are believed to be getting support from the country's highest leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. These hardliners are against the West. They are willing to adhere to some of the rules of Islam and to implement in society. They are committed to spread the message of Shia revolution of Iran to the whole world. On the other hand, Liberals are President Hassan Rouhani's camp. They want to keep pace with the western society and Islamic liberalism is very generous in implementing it.
After the announcement of the trump, Iran's reformist and hardliner-both camps gave a favor to the agreement. France, the United Kingdom, Germany, Russia, China and the EU have agreed that the agreement will remain consistent with other countries and organizations.
There is nothing to surprise in giving the Iranian reformists an opportunity to continue the deal. Because, at one time they took the initiative to make the deal and they were the most active to sustain it. The stories of the hardliners are different again. Whether it is a preliminary plan or an accident, despite the agreement of the United States, despite the terms of the agreement there is no way but to support the hardline agreement. If any non-cooperation is proved then the agreement will be broken.
If the deal ends, then the help-co-operation from EU, France, UK and Germany will be closed overnight. These three countries will start to open their mouth against the Iranian hardliners who are now continuing in the Middle East's revolutionary campaign. If there is a contract, the EU will not make any ambiguity with Iran's presence in the Middle East.
On the other hand, after the exit of the deal, the US arm on the Iranian issue has become more taller. The Iranian contract was not broken due to the trump being out. But due to the exit from the deal, the United States will now be able to take action against Iran without the excuse of nuclear program.
There are a number of logical reasons behind the hardline conspiracy of Iran that will not come out of this deal. Firstly, they know that only dependent on Russia, Iran will not be able to pursue relations with other countries. At least three European countries with Iran's agreement recently took a stand against Russia in connection with toxic gas attacks in Syria and interference on the Internet. That's why Russia is under pressure to influence Middle East. That is why Iran can not rely solely on Russia's long-term support.
At the same time, Iran does not expect to receive absolute support from non-Western countries, China. In addition, Iran has no effect in the Middle East. At the moment, China's main strategic goal is to catch its presence around the world. Iran is interfering with China's aim to keep fire on rebels in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and other countries in the Middle East.
When China establishes a partner's relationship with a country, she is sure that the country has two characteristics. If not, China does not move towards it. The first feature is that the neighboring countries have to co-exist with that country. Secondly, there must be a government in that country, which will not end easily due to unpopularity or the attack of the opponent. In South Asia, South East Asia and Africa, these two countries are more special. That's why China got the fan on the same side. Iran can fill the conditions of sustainable government, but its co-existence with the neighbors is very poor. On the other hand, Iran considers China as a hindrance to its Middle East.
Because of the announcement of the withdrawal of Trump's contract, President Rouhani's commitment will be very difficult to continue with reforms now. In many cases, he may have to be inactive. If this inaction continues, economic pressure on most people in Iran will continue to grow. In the coming years, the Iranian government will not only have to face the pressure of the people in the poor economy, but also, the United States and its allies will also try to put him under extreme pressure. To get rid of that situation, Tehran will have to persuade Tehran from within the agreement.
Excellent post!
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