- Trump is convicted in federal court on these and Jan 6 charges.
- Trump begins serving a long prison term.
- The base, angered, gives Trump the nomination.
- The fed's interest rates finally cause a recession.
- Between an energized base and the recession, trump wins.
- Trump pardons himself.
The NY state case is unlikely to result in prison time. Even if the GA state case gets him a sentence, it seems there's nothing to prevent him from serving a full term while in a GA prison.
Over the last 7 years, my Overton Window on what could happen in US politics has sure shifted.