So, what are the odds of this sequence of events?

in trump •  last year 

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  • Trump is convicted in federal court on these and Jan 6 charges.
  • Trump begins serving a long prison term.
  • The base, angered, gives Trump the nomination.
  • The fed's interest rates finally cause a recession.
  • Between an energized base and the recession, trump wins.
  • Trump pardons himself.

The NY state case is unlikely to result in prison time. Even if the GA state case gets him a sentence, it seems there's nothing to prevent him from serving a full term while in a GA prison.

Over the last 7 years, my Overton Window on what could happen in US politics has sure shifted.

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