source: UFC

Fight Card

Main Card: Pay Per View: 7 PST, 10 EST

Stipe Miocic (15-2, 9-2 UFC, Heavyweight Champion) vs. Alistair Overeem (41-14, 6-3 UFC)
Fabricio Werdum (20-6-1, 8-3 UFC) vs. Travis Browne (18-4-1, 9-4-1 UFC)
CM Punk (0-0) vs. Mickey Gall (2-0, 1-0 UFC)
Urijah Faber (33-9, 9-5 UFC) vs. Jimmie Rivera (19-1, 3-0 UFC)
Jessica Andrade (14-5, 5-3 UFC) vs Joanne Calderwood (11-1, 3-1 UFC)

Betting Odds

odds taken from BestFightOdds

What do these numbers mean?

-When there is a minus (-) sign in front of a number, it indicates how much you need to bet in order to win $100.
-When there is a plus (+) sign in front of a number, it indicates how much you win if you bet $100.

So for example, Stipe Miocic is roughly -130 on most of the sportsbooks and Alistair Overeem is roughly +110. If you bet $130 on Stipe Miocic and he wins, you win $100 (get back your $130 investment plus your $100 in winnings). If you bet $100 on Alistair Overeem and he wins, you win $110 (get back your $100 investment plus your $110 in winnings).

So essentially, the fighter who has a minus number is a favorite, and the fighter who has a plus number is the underdog.

Why are the numbers not the same?

The difference between the minus and plus numbers is like a tax you pay the sportsbook for taking your bet.

If there wasn’t a gap between the numbers and one fighter was say -140 and the other was +150, then you could bet $140 on the favorite and $95 on the underdog and guarantee a win. How? If the favorite wins, you bet $140, you win $100 and lose $95 on the underdog for a total profit of $5. If the underdog wins, you bet $95 and win $142.50 but lose $140 on the favorite for a profit of $2.50.

The sportsbook is not interested in giving free money away, so the minus number is always bigger than the positive number.

What does this mean in terms of odds to win the fight?

Stipe Miocic (54.5%) vs Alistair Overeem (45.5%)
Fabricio Werdum (65.12%) vs Travis Browne (34.88%)
Mickey Gall (79.18%) vs CM Punk (20.82%)
Jimmie Rivera (62.08%) vs Urijah Faber (37.92%)
Jessica Andrade (57.29%) vs Joanne Calderwood (42.71%)

Analysis of Fights

Miocic vs Overeem: for UFC Heavyweight Championship

Alistair Overeem is arguably the most skilled overall fighter in the heavyweight division. He is a former K1 Grand Prix Champion (the premier kickboxing tournament), has great size and strength which aids in his wrestling game, and has a nasty guillotine choke on the mat. However, he has been plagued by cardio issues his entire career, often fading and then losing fights he was previously dominating. He is also known for a weak chin: he has been finished by strikes 9 times in his MMA career, and never comes back to win once he is losing a fight.

Stipe Miocic won the heavyweight belt back in May, defeating Fabricio Werdum using improved boxing and footwork to take advantage of Werdum’s reckless chasing, knocking him out in the first round.

source: mma-core

Stipe was a division 1 college wrestler and Golden Gloves boxing champion before starting MMA, and usually uses his wrestling defensively to keep fights standing and use his boxing edge.

I believe Overeem is the better fighter when fresh and will win the early rounds with a more varied striking attack that includes kicks and vicious knees from both the clinch and flying knees from distance. However, if he doesn’t finish Stipe early, Stipe’s cardio edge should allow him to take over in the mid to late rounds.

Stipe is rightly the favorite due to better durability and cardio, but this fight will usually end before the 3rd round and is very close to a coin flip.

Werdum vs Browne 2: Heavyweight (265)

This is a rematch of a 2014 title eliminator fight which Werdum won. Browne landed a couple big shots early and knocked Werdum down, but after recovering Werdum went on to dominate the last 4.5 rounds of the fight.

*source: mma-core

This fight should be no different than the first. Since switching camps from Jackson MMA, widely believed to be the best MMA gym, to Glendale Fight Club, widely believed to be one of the worst MMA gyms, Browne has looked markedly worse. His untechnical footwork has only diminished, and the legendary game planning of Greg Jackson was replaced with the atrocious game planning of Edmond Tarverdyan.

Although Werdum looked much worse in his last fight than the previous 10, I’m willing to look past it because it was mostly just a poor choice to chase Stipe around the cage and he paid for it. Browne is very dangerous in certain spots, for instance he likes to use the cage to defend takedowns and uses his height and power to land huge elbows from the clinch, but I think Werdum fights similarly to the first fight, utilizing a striking advantage from distance to overwhelm Browne, and there’s no reason to believe that Browne will adapt and have a new method for dealing with Werdum’s striking. He also can’t confidently use offensive wrestling due to both a cardio disadvantage and Werdum being a world champion Brazilian Jiu Jitsu competitor.

The most likely outcomes are Werdum by either unanimous decision or submission, but given his power and that he did knock down Werdum in the first fight, a Travis Browne KO is not out of the question.

CM Punk vs Mickey Gall: Welterweight (170)

CM Punk is a former WWE superstar that recently transitioned to MMA. Unlike Brock Lesnar, he is not a former college wrestler, is not a freak athlete, and has no previous MMA fights before coming to the UFC.

Mickey Gall is 24 years old with only 4 combined pro and amateur MMA fights. Although he has an legitimate Brazilian Jiu Jitsu background, he is very green in the cage.

This is a gimmick fight: CM Punk looks awful in the little training footage available, and while Mickey has potential, he needs more time to develop and is probably not ready to face most of the UFC Welterweight roster. But this fight should be a cakewalk for Mickey, and I expect him to finish CM Punk in the first round via submission.

Urijah Faber vs Jimmie Rivera: Bantamweight (135)

Urijah Faber has been a stalwart in the lighter weight classes for over 10 years, but time is undefeated. In the last 2-3 years Faber has looked progressively worse, both in wins and losses. While he has a phenomenal submission game for a wrestler, Faber always relied on speed and quickness over technique in his striking game. Now that he is slowing down, it’s hard for him to adjust.

Jimmie Rivera is a better technical boxer than Faber with more power, and has shown good enough defensive wrestling that he should be able to keep the fight standing. However, he was knocked down by Pedro Munhoz, a worse striker with less power than Faber. Also, despite slowing down, Faber still has great cardio and could possibly take over the later portions of the fight.

The betting line has moved significantly towards Jimmie Rivera. He opened as a small favorite and is now considered over 60% to win. He has the much clearer path to victory, and should win a decision

Jessica Andrade vs Joanne Calderwood: Strawweight (115)

This is a fun fight where both fighter’s greatest strengths are the other’s weakness. Jessica Andrade is the better and more skilled fighter, but has cardio issues. Joanne Calderwood has bad footwork, backs up in straight lines, is often pushed against the fence, but has terrific cardio and pace.

The most likely outcome is Jessica Andrade winning a decision via winning the early rounds, but the cardio issues are worrisome enough that Joanne is a very live underdog.

Preliminary Fights

UFC Fight Pass Prelims: 315pm PST, 615pm EST

Yancy Medeiros (12-4) vs Sean Spencer (12-5)
Drew Dober (16-7) vs Jason Gonzalez (10-2)

Fox Sports 1 Prelims: 5 PST, 8 EST

Jessica Eye (11-5) vs. Bethe Correia (9-2)
Nik Lentz (26-7-2) vs. Michael McBride (8-1)
Caio Magalhaes (9-2) vs Brad Tavares (13-4)
CB Dollaway (15-8) vs Fancimar Barroso (18-5)

Hope you guys tune in and enjoy the fights!

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My name is Ryan Daut and I'd love to have you as a follower. Click here to go to my page, then click in the upper right corner if you would like to see my blogs and articles regularly.

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