How Do These Two Middleweights Match Up
Looking at the skill set I think this is a bad match up for Branch. Although Branch has more experience in terms of total fights, Rockhold has fought and beaten some of the biggest names in the sport. That being said I think mind set will play a role this time. Rockhold is coming from a long layoff and is fighting a relative unknown. Branch is coming back to the UFC after being cut years ago and is fighting a former champion. It feels like Branch will be far more motivated than Rockhold, and we've seen what happens to Rockhold when he gets cocky and underestimates his opponents.
Fighter Stats
| Luke Rockhold | David Branch |
|---|---|
 |  |
Here we see they are actually similar in age. For some reason I've been hearing that Branch is much older than Rockhold, I wouldn't call 3 years much older, so we expect them to be in similar physical conditions.
As with many of his opponents, Rockhold has the height advantage, a 2 inch (5 cm) height advantage, which is quite a bit. This gives Rockhold an advantage in the clench. Despite being the taller fighter, Rockhold does not have the reach advantage, Branch has it at a 4 inch (10 cm) advantage. Should be interesting to see how this plays out, one guy with the height advantage and the other with the reach advantage.
Striking
| Luke Rockhold | David Branch |
|---|---|
 |  |
Taking into account Rockhold's striking accuracy and Branch's striking defense, we would expect Rockhold to land 18.29% of his strikes thrown, Branch is expected to land 16% of his strikes thrown. When we factor in his reach advantage it could be a higher number though. Then again Rockhold uses his kicks to keep his opponents at bay.
Something interesting to note is that Branch clearly likes being in the clench. I'm not sure if this will play to his advantage this fight, it's not easy clenching a taller opponent. It's tough to say who has the edge in striking, but I'm gonna give it to Luke.
Grappling
| Luke Rockhold | David Branch |
|---|---|
 |  |
Here's where is gets very dangerous for Branch. Rockhold has Branch outclassed when it comes to wrestling and overall ground game. That's expected, Rockhold is highly skilled in jiujitsu. The only top ten middleweight I believe is better is Jacare Souza, and that's really saying something.
Branch needs to keep this fight standing somehow, he needs to use Rockhold's height advantage against him and try to keep his center of gravity nice and low, he needs to have a wide base. Rockhold will punish him with kicks if he does but if he gets taken down I believe it's game over for Branch. Also his take down defense is nothing impressive, so he can't confidently stand up straight.
However, Rockhold really doesn't take people down much despite his jiujitsu. Maybe he will keep this fight standing. Although I believe his shortest path to victory is on the ground he really isn't known for shooting take downs.
Final Words
As much as I'd love to see Branch have a great redemption story, I just don't see many ways he can win this fight. Luke's leg reach and pressure with his kicks will keep Branch at a distance, where Branch's reach advantage won't matter. In the clench Branch will also struggle because of Luke's size and strength, and on the ground (if it gets to the ground) I don't think Branch can roll with Luke.
This is of course assuming Rockhold treats Branch like the dangerous fighter he is. If Rockhold underestimates Branch, or starts showboating again, I think Branch will win, he's just too motivated, focused, and determined to make a name for himself.
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