February 2 and 3, 2022: Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley told US lawmakers that Kyiv could fall within 72 hours if Russia decides to invade Ukraine.
February 21, 2022: Michael Kofman and Jeffrey Edmonds, experts on the Russian armed forces, published an article claiming that the Ukrainian military is generally understaffed and has limited familiarity with warfare. Ukrainian forces would fall victim to Russian air strikes as they retreated, and Russian ground forces would move quickly to try to surround Ukrainian formations. Later, there were calls for a "no-fly zone" because people expected Russia to have total air superiority.
February 24, 2022: Erich Vad, a former German general and advisor to Angela Merkel who appeared regularly in the German media, said there was no point in providing military aid. He argued that the Russian army was modern and superior and that the war would be over in a few days.
March 2022: Over 240 forecasters on Metaculus predicted a 97% chance that Russian troops would enter Odessa before the end of the year.