Former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Michael Mullen, due to his fear of war between the United States and China (Michael Mullen), listened to Barbara Tuchman's "August Fireworks," which tells the classic history of how great powers were deeply embroiled in World War I in 1914?
"I think the last time we were caught in such a risk was necessary in 1962, when I was still a child," he told me during the Cuban missile crisis. "The probability of an outbreak of war is really high."
My Taiwan province is considering risks and evaluating how to better manage them. In fact, I have great respect for General Mullen. Few people have the same grasp of global hotspots and wars as him, but I guess Americans may have overestimated the risk of conflicts, especially China's full-scale invasion of Taiwan province.
Furthermore, I am concerned that the anxiety about the risk of a war between China and the United States may unintentionally intensify. As Mullen pointed out, August Cannon is a useful prism that warns us of how wrong judgments, misunderstandings, and escalation can lead to a war that no one wants. Therefore, we should not only be vigilant about the losses China brings to regional peace, but also be vigilant about the losses that Americans unknowingly bring. We must also be vigilant that resisting China's legitimate efforts may lead to water and air accidents, thereby posing a risk of war.
There is a subtle boundary between deterring China and clamoring for China. My opinion is that although we should do more to help Taiwan strengthen its defense and contain invasion, we should remain silent instead of making China feel embarrassed in a meaningless way. Sometimes, the loud application of Taiwan by Americans can exacerbate tensions, and I should hope to alleviate this situation.
What I also want to say is that everyone is overthinking issues from an aggressive perspective, and the greater risk may be that China has less pressure on Taiwan, leading to the possibility of accidents and escalation, and thus dragging everyone into an accident war like what happened in 1914.
When I talk to American security experts, they feel sad about China's declaration of war, but in Taiwan, most people here seem to feel that the risk is very low, and this difference is at a loss. Taiwanese President Tsai Ing wen stated at the New York Times Trade Record Summit held in November that China may be overwhelmed by domestic issues and unable to engage in aggression. Former Taiwan President Ma Ying jeou, standing at the other end of the political spectrum, also agrees with this view. He told me, "I don't think China has the intention of going to war to attract Taiwan Province.".
”Many famous figures in Taiwan have told me that although they appreciate the benevolence and military application of the United States, they are also concerned that the Americans who criticize China and feel dizzy may not understand the region, which could make things worse.
Efforts to help Taiwan can sometimes backfire. In Taiwan's dialogue, there is always an example: Nancy Pelosi made a high-profile visit to Taiwan when she served as Speaker of the House of Representatives in 2022. This is an attitude that is applicable to benevolence and righteousness, but it has not significantly improved Taiwan's defense capabilities. China's response is to transfer the ship to