There's been about a two point shift nationally in the polling since Trump's conviction. It is functionally a coin flip election according to the polling.
This matches about what we've seen from the two polls that re-surveyed their pre-conviction samples. So it is likely real even accounting for sampling error.
Nevada concerns me the most. A lot of paths to 270 close if the sunbelt is lost. Biden would basically need the Midwest to hold to win if he lost both Nevada and Arizona.
As much as the polls haven't moved much, there are a tremendous amount of low information voters. So I wouldn't assume there can't be more movement between the two. Historically there has been decent movement. That has narrowed in recent decades, but even in recent years June is still relatively early.
Fwiw most of the conviction shift seems to have been among undecideds and Dem leaning folks, rather than among Trump leaning folks. Although we did see some Trump leaning folks shift - mostly low information Trump leaning folks.
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