Russia-Ukraine War Watershed Kherson Great Battle Imminent

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The Ukrainian War, which began on February 24, has reached a turning point when the Ukrainian army launched a counterattack from the end of July. Russia has been expanding its occupation territory in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine based on its superior firepower. In response, the Ukrainian army counterattacked the Russian forces that had occupied the southern Kherson region using the US-provided High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS). At present, Ukraine is vowing to recover its land by September, and for this reason, the Russian army is dispersing its forces concentrated in Donbas to the south. On August 1, the Associated Press predicted that "the next few weeks will be the most decisive period in this war."
Russia-Ukraine War Watershed Kherson Great Battle Imminent

In the past, the Ukrainian war had a different weapon system that determined victory or defeat at each stage. In the early days of Russia's attempt to occupy the capital, Kiiu, anti-tank missiles such as the Javelin provided by the United States were the difference between victory and defeat. The Ukrainian army repulsed the Russians advancing into the capital with tanks leading the way through ambush and javelin attacks. After that, when Russia gave up its control of Kiiu and concentrated on occupying Donbas, the Russian 155mm artillery was the winner. The Russians advanced slowly, burning cities to ashes with indiscriminate shelling. So far, Russia has almost controlled Luhansk Oblast among the Donbas Regions, and Donetsk Oblast also occupied about half.
Since the end of July, the Haimas provided by the United States to Ukraine is changing the face of the war. The U.S. provided 12 Haimas to Ukraine. Hi-Mars is a long-range precision artillery weapon system with a range of 80 km. The Ukrainian army used the Haimas to destroy about 50 powder depots located in the rear of the Russian army. Ukrainian Defense Minister Olexi Rezhnikow recently said that "the weapon that will determine the success of the advance into Kherson is the Hymas".

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Kherson in southern Ukraine is a strategically important city located at the mouth of the Dnipro River that divides the country from east to west. If you take control of Kherson, you can control the Dnipro River. It is also a strategic point connecting the Krem Peninsula. The Russian army is hastening to russia, including capturing Kherson in early March and issuing Russian citizenship to its residents. Russia announced plans to incorporate the region into Russian territory by holding a referendum in September.
Zelensky: “We will liberate Kherson step by step”
Since July, the Ukrainian army has succeeded in gradually retaking Russian-occupied territories in the Kherson region. Recently, with the help of long-range artillery with a range of more than 80 km, confidence has been strengthened, the Guardian of the UK reported on July 26. The Ukrainian military is using the Khaimas to attack bridges and military facilities in the southern part of the country. Sergiu Hlan, aide to Kherson's administration, appeared on Ukrainian TV on July 27 and said that the turning point of the war had come, and that Kherson "will definitely be liberated by September". President Volodymyr Zelensky also did not set a date, but vowed to liberate Kherson “in stages”.
Russia-Ukraine War Watershed Kherson Great Battle Imminent

Ukrainian forces are bombarding Russian supply and transport facilities in the Kherson region with Haimas. On 29 and 30 July, 40 trains were destroyed on the way to Briliuka in Kherson, carrying Russian troops, equipment and ammunition from the Krm Peninsula. A large Russian military ammunition depot and maintenance depot in Skadosk, Kherson, was also destroyed in the Haimas attack, the Ukrainian military announced online on July 31. The Ukrainian army said: “The ammunition depots and maintenance depots around Skadosk that the enemy brought from Krm were destroyed. The enemy installed large fuel and lubricant storage facilities and large maintenance depots behind the sewage treatment plant.… It was destroyed by a very sophisticated missile attack. Residents said that a huge fire, as tall as a five-story building, burned from the evening until the next morning,” he said. The Ukrainian military authorities in the Kherson region announced on 1 August that 46 villages in the region had been liberated.
Under these circumstances, the United States announced on August 1st additional aid to Ukrainian Haimas. Pentagon spokesman John Kirby announced the 17th aid package to Ukraine worth $550 million on the same day, promising additional aid, including Haimas missiles and 75,000 rounds of 155mm howitzer ammunition.
The Ukrainian army's Haimas could hit the four bridges connecting Kherson across the Dnipro River with precision. Kherson is Russia's only metropolitan city on the west bank of the Dnipro River. The Russian army is strategically weak in defense because it is in a position to strike a water base. If the Ukrainian forces attack intensively, it will be difficult for the Russians to defend as well.
Ukrainian soldiers strike a bridge with a hymas
The Ukrainian army's attack on the bridge aims to cut off Russian supplies. A more precise goal is not simply to destroy the bridges, but to damage them so that the Russians cannot transport heavy equipment. This means that even taking into account Haimas' precision strike ability, the Ukrainian forces must exercise considerable restraint when counterattacking. If it is difficult to isolate a city by destroying a bridge, it is even more difficult to retake a city inhabited by civilians. Like Mariupol, the Russian army can bombard a city indiscriminately, turning it into ashes and then occupying it. But for Ukraine, which is reclaiming its land, this type of attack is clearly not the solution.
The Ukrainian army is not capable of rapidly advancing to Kherson with only Haimas. The Ukrainian military has virtually no air force. Ground forces alone without close support from the air force should have an edge over the Russian forces that occupied the city for five months from March. In addition, if there is a street battle with the Russian army, retake will be even more difficult. The British Guardian analyzed that Hymas "has balanced the war in which the Russians were dominant, but there is no evidence yet to suggest that Ukraine has succeeded in counterattacking."
The Russian media is trying to ignore the power of Haimas or Ukraine's counterattack. Russia's Pravda argued that the Ukrainian military had no counterattack capability in an analysis article on July 26 that "If Ukraine fails to attack Kherson, the Kiiu regime will surrender." Pravda analyzed that the reason Ukraine's media and telegram channels had been promoting the Kherson attack for more than a month was because they were concerned that the West might cut off arms supplies if the Ukrainian military showed no offensive capability.
Russia targets Kherson referendum in September
Pravda said that the Ukrainian army attacked the bridge on the Dnipro River with Haimas, but had no ability to launch a full-fledged offensive. The Ukrainian military has no such capability.” The media continued, “If the Ukrainian military does not succeed in the attack, it will incur huge losses. In that case, the entire battle line would collapse and the Russians would be able to charge from the South and Donbass. The Russian army, having built a solid defense, is waiting for the Ukrainian Kherson Offensive to fail. Russia is patiently waiting for Zelensky to launch an attack.”
Pravda analyzed that Ukraine set the deadline for restoring Kherson to September because Russia decided to hold a referendum for annexation in September. “Ukrainian authorities are planning to make it illegal to participate in the referendum,” he said. If Kherson becomes Russian territory, Ukraine will have to think twice before bombarding Kherson. If this happens, Kiiu will face even greater retaliation.” “Russia will defend its territory, and other Ukrainians will see life back to normal in those areas,” Pravda said. It also becomes clear that the Ukrainian army cannot fight effectively. The West will turn its back on Zelensky. There is a possibility that Zelensky will be removed. Ultimately, Ukraine will surrender to Russia.”
It is unlikely that Ukraine will launch an all-out counterattack against Kherson immediately. The Associated Press reported on August 1, citing Ukrainian military expert Olekh Zdanou, that "Ukrainian forces could increase their attack in the south and force the Russian forces to disperse." “The Russian command faces a dilemma over whether to increase the attack on Donetsk or increase the defenses of the South,” Zhdanou said. It will be difficult for the Russian military to carry out both at the same time for a long period of time.” He added that the Ukrainian military has been undermining Russian military power by continuing to attack facilities such as ammunition depots and fuel depots rather than launching a massive counterattack against southern Russian forces, he added.
Russia is due to hold a referendum in Kherson as early as September, but it will depend on whether Russia can take full control of these areas. “The main goal of the Kremlin is to bring Kiiu into dialogue, secure the current occupied territories, and hold a referendum in the fall,” said Mikola Sukhrowski of the Kiiu think tank. He emphasized that the Ukrainian Army is "destroying the Russian military's capabilities by destroying the supply network by firing precision bombardment on Russian military storage facilities, command posts, railway stations, and bridges," he said. Russian forces are dispersing supplies far from the battlefield. “The supply line of the Russian army is getting longer, and it is also delaying the advance of the Russian army in the east by reducing its superiority in firepower,” he said.
If you retake Kherson, you can also reclaim Krum.
Justin Crump, a strategist analyst who served as commander of a British tank corps, said: “The Russian army must make everything smaller and spread its storage more… These are disturbances that slow the Russian military's activities. "Russian forces are having a hard time slowing down the rate of artillery, which was formerly the most important advantage," he said.
He added, “There is a river behind the Russian army in Kherson, which is disadvantageous for defense.” He predicted that Ukraine would eventually mobilize a large force to counterattack. “The Russian military should disperse the main force in the east just with the expectation that the Ukrainian forces could counterattack,” Krump said. Because of this, the Donbass attack is being delayed. Therefore, the threat of attack alone is making Ukraine successful now.”
The British Times reported on July 30 that "If Ukraine actually succeeds in counterattacking and retakes Kherson, it can reclaim not only Russia's occupied southwestern territory but also Krum." But if a serious threat is posed to Krum, President Vladimir Putin will escalate the war, the Times predicted.
This is because Putin is currently under the influence of the super-hard hawkish security council secretary Nikolai Patrushev. Putin's de facto security adviser, Patrushev, was the strongest advocate for an invasion of Ukraine, and even after the war, "The Anglo-Saxons have not changed over the centuries. Even today, they are imposing rules on the world and ruthlessly trampling on the rights of sovereign states.” He even quotes General Mikhail Skovlev, who committed the genocide during the 19th century in imperial Russia, saying, “The duration of peace is proportional to the slaughter inflicted on the enemy. The harder you hit them, the longer they will be quiet.” For Patrushev, war would be something of endless cruelty, The Times analyzed. From his point of view, Russia is currently at war with the West. In fact, he argues that the US "prefers that Russia does not exist as a state."

However, the reality is that it is not easy for Putin to escalate the war. Because he had already committed 85% of the Russian military force to the war in Ukraine. Three months after Putin has to declare war on escalation, he will only be able to call up 100,000 to 150,000 reservists who are poorly equipped and untrained. Of course, Putin could escalate the war in other ways. He threatens Ukrainian civilians by further attacking them. He could even pressure Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko to join the war.
If 20,000 Belarusian troops are deployed in the north, the Ukrainian army will have to disperse its forces to defend the capital, Kiiu. It is possible to completely shut down the natural gas pipeline that supplies Europe, or a cyberattack on Western countries is possible.
“Objectively Russia is not even a superpower,” The Times wrote. However, if the Russian leader self-proclaims a geopolitical guerrilla and then tries to fight according to their will against the law, disaster will result. “It’s not just about buying the natural gas we bought in Russia elsewhere. Just like the Cold War, we have to adapt to the new environment. It is a response to Russia and China at the international level. Politicians need to let voters know that this war isn't just going to last for months or years, and it's going to cost money."