It's like a Cold War scene. An unpredictable Russian leader who brings troops and tanks to the border of their neighbors. The threat of a bloody east-west fire storm.
But what looks like a dangerous episode from a bygone era is now at the heart of world affairs. After meeting with European leaders in February. 11, the White House warned that Russia could start a fullscale invasion of Ukraine in less than a week.
Map: Where Russian Troops Are Positioned Around Ukraine
An estimated 130,000 Russian troops are in position on Ukraines northern, eastern and southern sides. U.S. officials say Russias buildup has reached 130,000 troops. They say they have evidence of a Russian war plan that envisions an invasion force of 175,000 troops that Ukraine`s military, despite U.S.provided equipment and training, would have little ability to stop.
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Some 8,500 American troops are on “high alert” for possible deployment to Eastern Europe, most likely to provide assurance to American allies in the region.
A military action threatens to destabilize the already volatile postSoviet region, with serious consequences for the security structure that has governed Europe since the 1990s.
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Russia has made a list of farreaching demands to reshape that structure — positions NATO and the United States have rejected. Russian officials have repeatedly insisted that Moscow has no plans to invade Ukraine, but Mr. Putin pointedly has not ruled it out.
What`s behind the Ukraine crisis?
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Ukrainian soldiers prepare an underground bunker in Hranitne, Ukraine in November. The conflict with Russia in eastern Ukraine continues despite the 2015 ceasefire. Ukrainian soldiers prepare an underground bunker in Hranitne, Ukraine in November. The conflict with Russia in eastern Ukraine continues despite the 2015 ceasefire. Source: The New York Times Brendan Hoffman
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, NATO expanded eastward and eventually absorbed most of the communist European nations. The three Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, which were once part of the Soviet Union, have joined NATO as well as Poland and Romania.
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As a result, NATO, an alliance formed to counter the Soviet Union, brought hundreds of kilometers closer to Moscow and had a direct border with Russia. And in 2008, she said she plans to include Ukraine, but that is still seen as a long way off.
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Every night, we'll send you a summary of the latest Kazakhstan coverage. Have them sent to your inbox. Putin described the collapse of the Soviet Union as a catastrophe that robbed Russia of its legitimate position in the world's great powers and was tossed by the predatory west. He has spent his 22 years in power rebuilding Russias military and reasserting its geopolitical clout. The Russian president calls NATOs expansion menacing, and the prospect of Ukraine joining it an existential threat to his country. As Russia has grown more assertive and stronger militarily, his complaints about NATO have grown more strident. He has repeatedly invoked the specter of American ballistic missiles and combat forces in Ukraine, though U.S., Ukrainian and NATO officials insist there are none.
Mr. Putin has also insisted that Ukraine and Belarus are fundamentally parts of Russia, culturally and historically. He has considerable influence in Belarus, and discussions with Russia on certain unifications have been going on for years.
However, in early 2014, East-West relations deteriorated dramatically in the absence of a president who had a close alliance with Mr Putin due to a large-scale protest in Ukraine. Russia soon invaded and annexed Ukraine's Crimea. Moscow also fueled a separatist rebellion that dominated parts of Ukraine's Donbas region, and the war was still ongoing, killing more than 13,000 people.
The 2015 ceasefire agreement in Donbas could give Russian agents veto power over much of Ukrainian politics, including foreign policy. However, it was never fully implemented as the war reduced Russia's popularity in Ukraine and both sides accused each other of violating the agreement.
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What does Putin want?
Mr Putin at the annual press conference held in Moscow on December 23. He increasingly portrayed NATO's eastern expansion as an existential threat to his country. Mr. Putin at his annual news conference in Moscow, on Dec. 23. He has increasingly portrayed NATOs eastward expansion as an existential threat to his country.Credit...Alexander Zemlianichenko/Associated Press Mr. Putin appears intent on winding back the clock more than 30 years, establishing a broad, Russiandominated security zone resembling the power Moscow wielded in Soviet days. Now 69 years old and possibly edging toward the twilight of his political career, he clearly wants to draw Ukraine, a nation of 44 million people, back into Russias orbit.
Less clear is how willing he is to do it by force if the cost to Russia is high, and whether he would be content with a Ukraine that is pliant but remains apart from Russia.
Russia presented NATO and the United States in December with a series of written requirements stating that it was necessary to ensure its security. First and foremost, Ukraine will not join NATO, withdraw its troops in Eastern European countries where NATO is already a member, and ensure that the 2015 ceasefire will take place in Ukraine. average.
The West flatly rejected key demands, raising other concerns and threatening sanctions. Moscow's aggressive stance has also fueled Ukraine's nationalism, and civilian militias are preparing for a protracted guerrilla campaign during the Russian occupation.
Putin's timing could coincide with the transfer of President Donald J. A contrast between Trump, who is extremely friendly and disrespectful of NATO, and President Biden, who is committed to the alliance and distrusts the Kremlin.
He may also want to help nationalists in the country by focusing on external threats, as he did in the past. Putin shattered the domestic challenge to his authority, but over the past year with the economyMr. Putin seems rationale on winding again the clock greater than 30 years, organising a broad, Russian-ruled protection sector reminiscent of the energy Moscow wielded in Soviet days. Now sixty nine years vintage and probably edging in the direction of the twilight of his political career, he certainly desires to draw Ukraine, a state of forty four million people, again into Russias orbit. Less clean is how inclined he's to do it through pressure if the price to Russia is excessive, and whether or not he could be content material with a Ukraine this is pliant however stays aside from Russia. Russia offered NATO and the US in December with a fixed of written needs that it stated have been had to make sure its protection. Foremost amongst them are a assure that Ukraine could in no way be a part of NATO, that NATO draw down its forces withinside the Eastern European nations which have already joined, and that the 2015 cease-hearthplace in Ukraine be implemented — aleven though Moscow and Kyiv disagree sharply on what that might mean. The West brushed off the principle needs out of hand, even as making overtures on different concerns, and dangerous sanctions. Moscows competitive posture has additionally infected Ukrainian nationalism, with citizen militias getting ready for a drawn-out guerrilla marketing campaign withinside the occasion of a Russian occupation.
Mr. Putin`s timing may also be associated with the transition from President Donald J. Trump, who changed into considerably pleasant to him and disparaging of NATO, to President Biden, who's devoted to the alliance and distrustful of the Kremlin.
He may additionally need to energise nationalists at domestic aid through specializing in an outside hazard, as he has withinside the past. Mr. Putin has overwhelmed home demanding situations to his authority, however ultimate year, with the economic system stumbling and the pandemic raging, competition companies held a number of the most important anti-Putin protests in years.
How does the US plan to respond?
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Russias Red Square in Moscow ultimate year. Mr. Putin is in search of to energise nationalist aid at domestic amid a raging pandemic. Russias Red Square in Moscow ultimate year. Mr. Putin is in search of to energise nationalist aid at domestic amid a raging pandemic.Credit...Sergey Ponomarev for The New York Times
The White House warned on Feb. eleven that Mr. Putin may want to mount a primary attack on Ukraine as early as Feb. 16, having closed in on Ukraine with land, sea and air forces on 3 sides. Officials mentioned the opportunity that bringing up a specific date might be a part of a Russian disinformation effort.
U.S. officers nonetheless do now no longer recognize whether or not Mr. Putin has determined to invade, however Jake Sullivan, the presidents country wide protection adviser, insisted, “We are equipped both way.” Understand the Escalating Tensions Over Ukraine Card 1 of 5 A brewing warfare. Antagonism among Ukraine and Russia has been simmering considering that 2014, whilst the Russian army crossed into Ukrainian territory, annexing Crimea and whipping up a insurrection withinside the east. A tenuous cease-hearthplace changed into reached in 2015, however peace has been elusive. A spike in hostilities. Russia has been progressively constructing up forces close to its border with Ukraine, and the Kremlins messaging in the direction of its neighbor has hardened. Concern grew in overdue October, whilst Ukraine used an armed drone to assault a howitzer operated through Russian-sponsored separatists.
Preventing an invasion. Russia referred to as the strike a destabilizing act that violated the cease-hearthplace agreement, elevating fears of a brand new intervention in Ukraine. Since then, the US, NATO and Russia had been engaged in a whirlwind of international relations aimed toward heading off that outcome.
The Kremlins position. President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, who has more and more more portrayed NATOs eastward growth as an existential hazard to his country, stated that Moscows developing army presence at the Ukrainian border changed into a reaction to Ukraines deepening partnership with the alliance.
Rising tension. Western nations have attempted to hold a speak with Moscow. But the Biden management warned that the U.S. may want to throw its weight in the back of Ukraine in case of an invasion. France, Germany and Poland additionally warned Russia of results if it released incursions into Ukraine.
In early December, Mr. Biden made clean that his management changed into now no longer thinking about sending troops to combat for Ukraine, considering that, amongst different reasons, Ukraine isn't a member of the NATO alliance and does now no longer come beneathneath its dedication to collective defense.
Instead, the US has despatched anti-tank and antiaircraft guns to Ukraine, expanded the American army presence in NATO nations that border Russia, and positioned 8,500 troops on excessive alert for deployment to Eastern Europe. Administration officers have additionally warned currently that the US may want to throw its weight in the back of a Ukrainian insurgency ought to Mr. Putin invade Ukraine.
But the middle of Mr. Bidens reaction has been to threaten Mr. Putin with “monetary results like none hes ever seen,” even as preserving diplomatic channels open and looking to corral all the NATO allies in the back of a unified policy.
The maximum excessive monetary blow the US may want to supply could be to reduce Russia off from the worldwide banking system. Mr. Biden has stated that a Russian invasion could spell the loss of life of one in every of Moscows prized projects, the $eleven billion Nord Stream 2 to growth herbal fueloline exports to Europe. The management could attempt to freeze private belongings that Mr. Putin and his allies preserve overseas, officers say, and it may institute sanctions that would deprive Russians in their liked next-technology phones, laptops and different gadgets, and the army of superior equipment. In reaction to Russias needs, American officers have presented measures like talks on nuclear palms control, more transparency in army exercises, which their Russian opposite numbers have referred to as worthwhile, however now no longer central. European leaders are preserving their very own talks with Moscow, aleven though the info stay carefully guarded.
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An intensifying warfare in Ukraine could check the remedy of the Biden management, which has been operating to repair self belief in Americas international management following the current messy withdrawal from Afghanistan and its retrenchment from overseas engagements beneathneath Mr. Trump, who declared NATO “obsolete.” An escalating warfare with Russia additionally threatens to upend current efforts through the US to shift NATOs interest to the safety assignment posed through China.