This is a correct point. Though with the House majority so thin almost anything that shifts a few seats is relevant.
The good news here is these seats will be hard to defend in a presidential year. Part of why NY was such a bad year for Dems was that Dem turnout was weak. Turnout in a presidential year will likely retake many of these seats and in the process the House.
Who knows on the Presidency, but I could very well see the Dems losing the Senate in 2024 and retaking the House majority. That Senate map is brutal for Dems in 2024.
Of course generally all three trend together to some degree, so if Biden wins in 2024 it would raise the probability of a Senate hold. And if Dems win the Georgia runoff that would make things easier as well.
So first, on redistricting, the Dems proposed a WI-grade gerrymander, and the NY court threw it out. The lines were straight down the middle, can't blame that. (As an aside, serves the Ds right for being chazas.)
The places they lost downstate are classic suburban districts. Al D'Amato territory on the Island and mid-Hudson, which is where I live. Now Rockland's nothing but cops and Hassidim, so skews R understates it, Similarly, Northern Westechester, Putnam, Dutchess, as you go north it gets real exurban and real Trumpy real fast. Newburgh, Peekskill and Poughkeepsie can only compensate so much.
IIRC, the day cash bail reform went into effect, some crazy lady was walking around Brooklyn cold-cocking Hassidic ladies. And, since she didn't smack them hard enough for it to be a felony, she's in and out and keeps doing the same thing. The Post story writes itself.
D's were real slow to narrow this, so Maloney pays the price for Hochul having to appease the left flank of the state party.
And, to make it really annoying, AOC, who grew up way the fuck and gone up in North Salem or some fucking place and thus should know better, is out claiming that the problem was that the D's didn't "lean in to the progressive narrative on public safety". Yep. That'll work.