2024 could turn out to be a major historical turning point.

Here are some of the good things that could happen - as well as how each could go disastrously wrong:

1. We could finally see the end of Donald Trump, with him ending up in prison and permanently out of power. Or he could weasel his way out of his legal troubles and get elected president again. His success or failure has huge implications for a variety of issues and institutions.

2. The West could give Ukraine enough weapons to achieve a breakthrough. Or we could foolishly fail to do so, leading to stalemate or even gains for Russia. The latter is especially likely if Trump wins.

3. Hamas could be utterly crushed. Or they could weasel their way out of it.

4. Milei's Argentina could provide a valuable example of successful libertarian reform! Or he could fall flat on his face and/or get blocked by opposition.

5. We could have major progress against exclusionary zoning/NIMBYism in multiple states. Or it might be stymied by interest groups and ignorant public opinion.

6. We could have major progress on making legal migration easier. Or we could have a major turn towards restrictionism (especially if Trump wins the election).

7. Related to 1 above: The political right's nationalist turn might crest and begin to recede. Or it could become more deeply entrenched (especially if Trump wins).

8. The political left might make important progress in curtailing its illiberal and quasi-socialist elements. Or they could get stronger.

These are just a few of many possible developments. Some of them could end up petering out, or turn out to be insignificant. Conversely, I could be overlooking something that might turn out to be significant. But I think the ones I listed are especially likely to become important. And note how many of them hinge in large part on the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.