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Saxo Bank published its traditional forecast, where it told what the world expects in 2023. There are only 10 events on the list, but they will definitely change life on the planet.
Forecasts that Saxo Bank itself calls shocking appear annually. Analysts issue warnings about potential events that are significant in scale, but may be underestimated. Some predictions came true in whole or in part in the past year. In particular, high inflation and the constitutional crisis in the United States that emerged in the form of a "divided" congress.
Now the world will have to forget about low interest rates, relations built on equality, independent financial institutions and green energy. We are waiting for the "military economy" and the desire of states to benefit, forgetting about globalization.
10 important events from Saxo Bank
- Billions will invest a trillion dollars in new energy project. Their consortium will be called ( of course, code ) Third Stone. The goal is to raise funds for research. Since the Manhattan Project, when the Americans first created an atomic bomb, this did not start.
Analysts believe that soon the demand for electricity will increase significantly. It is not only about electric vehicles, which will become even more popular, but also about the growth of data volumes, digitalization of the economy. In a decade or two years, date centers will consume about a fifth of all the energy on the planet. However, the potential for energy growth is not endless. Fossil fuels harm the environment, and green energy is very unreliable.
The investment climate will be weak. Companies that express a desire to cooperate with Third Stone will benefit from the increase in the value of their shares.
- In France, a political leader will change. Emmanuel Macron with a high probability will announce his resignation. Moreover, according to experts of Saxo, it will be at the beginning of the year. The politician will hope that the majority of the population will remain silent, and like-minded people will ask Macron to return. The reason will be the political upheavals that will cause the actions of Marin Le Pen, the leader of the far-right National Association party".
Macron became president for the second time in May 2022. Then he announced domestic political reforms, but in June legislative elections were held. The current French president’s party and his allies are no longer a majority in parliament. As a result, Emmanuel Macron is forced to compromise. The pressure is exerted by the opposition, which is now very strong in France.
An anti-populist coalition is formed, the catalyst for which will be the volatility of the euro and the sense of crisis.
- Unce of gold will cost 3000 dollars. Such price increases will cause a very long period of high inflation. Metal quotes in 2022 did not experience large changes due to the fact that inflation seemed to be a passing phenomenon, but over the past 40 years in the United States it has broken all records.
The central banks, as well as the markets, believed that inflation would return to its targets in a year or two. But now the forecasts are different. The US federal reserve system will be forced to quantitatively soften the government bond market, which will weaken the dollar. In China, demand for commodities will increase due to the abolition of the “zero tolerance” policy on COVID-19 by the authorities.
- EU will create own armed forces. Their formation will take about five years, but the decision of the policy from the EU will be made in 2023. Such changes will require 10 trillion euros, which will be introduced within 20 years. The authors of the forecast identified the situation in Ukraine as the largest military conflict in Europe since 1945, and therefore defense issues became the main ones for the European Union.
It is possible that the United States will at any time abandon its obligations to European partners. This will probably happen when Russia and Ukraine conclude a truce. The unified armed forces of Europe will require the issuance of special bonds. This will have a beneficial effect on the euro. Investors will begin to actively invest in new defense ETFs in Europe.
At least one country will refuse to produce meat, by announcing a seven-year transition period. She will be seen as a pioneer in the race for aggressive climate policy. High taxes will be imposed on meat products. People will be offered an alternative - meat of plant origin. In addition, laboratory meat cultivation will be developed, where carbon emissions will be minimized.
Great Britain can arrange Unbrexit. The decisions of the head of the Ministry of Finance, Jeremy Hunt, and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will be so unpopular that conservatives will lose their authority. The British are waiting for a crushing recession, rising unemployment, budget deficits due to a significant drop in tax revenues.
Rishi Sunak will resign. Extraordinary elections will be announced in the UK. Probably, another referendum will be organized on the Brexit issue. Perhaps it will take place on November 1, 2023.
- Ukrainian crisis and rising inflation will force countries to expand pricing control. The authorities will actively intervene in this process, otherwise inflation can destabilize both the economy and society.
Attempts to deprive Russia of oil revenues, including the introduction of a price ceiling, will lead to nothing, are predicted at Saxo Bank. Perhaps the authorities of Western countries will take control of even the level of salaries of their citizens. However, this will not help solve the main economic problem. Inflation will increase even more, living standards will decrease, as production will simply not have an incentive to function and develop.
India, China and OPEC + will leave IMF. For trading operations, they will begin to use the new reserve currency, rather than the dollar, which now accounts for 60% of the world's foreign exchange reserves. The prerequisites for such actions will be considered sanctions against Russia: countries that are not supporters of the United States are not sure that their foreign exchange assets will not be frozen overnight by the West. There are prerequisites that the yuan will be declared the reserve currency, but China does not seek this at all.
Changes await Japan. For the dollar in 2023 will ask for 200 yen. And if now the country still has a super-soft monetary policy and negative rates, then next year the global liquidity crisis and other factors will change everything. They will try to curb the situation with the help of currency interventions, but this will have to be abandoned due to a decrease in Japan's foreign exchange reserves by half or more.
10."Tax havens will be banned. Because of this, the private and venture capital investment sector will actually cease to exist. In 2023, governments will be in search of new sources of taxes. They will pay attention to "tax havens", where not only individual enterprises or businessmen, but also entire industries "hide. As a result, states receive $ 500-600 billion in corporate taxes.
The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development ( OECD ), of which 38 are the most economically developed countries, will act more aggressively. Ban tax havens in the Bahamas, Bermuda, Cayman Islands. Capital from there can no longer be used to absorb companies by corporations within the OECD.