The Moment You Realize it is Futile Fighting Elliot Wave Theory.

denmarkguy (77) · 7 years ago

I remind myself that there was LOTS of money to be made by investing in tech stocks after the dot-com bubble burst-- the "solid" companies that were backed by more than just air and promises came back strong. Similarly, the same thing again after 2008.

I believe we will see lots of opportunities in the crypto markets, too... the real coins will separate from the "shit coins." As Warren Buffett once observed "When the tide goes out you discover who's been swimming naked."

Not sure about Bitcoin, but it seems to me that more "utility" based assets like BTS and Steem will probably come back the quickest because they actually have something "behind them."

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7 votes

hilarski (76) · 7 years ago

The real coins will do just as you say.

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ultimus (59) · 7 years ago

The alignment is uncanny.

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mrosenquist (70) · 7 years ago

Kind of scary how human nature aligns with market trends. Where behaviors intersect with financial decisions.

pouchon (70) · 7 years ago

I like the picture of the boat in the high sea.
Who is going to jump in this sea?
This pic means a lot about the economy.
You have a better chance of survival in the ship.

This is the perfect time to buy simple.
You had a video earlier post, EVERYTHING HALF OFF.
The name of the game put your money where your mouth is.
Hope you get the last part.
Keep on steemin'

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atmosblack (63) · 7 years ago

I´m glad that I saved my earnings with other crypto by exchanging it into STEEM and while the Titanic is sinking, we can keep the music playing here and even get paid for it! How awesome is that! 😀

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mikenevitt (62) · 7 years ago

I personally am holding. Lucky enough for me I got in long enough I’m still in the black, cheers mike

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hilarski (76) · 7 years ago

Cool thing is that you could have bought in September and still be in the Black.

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mikenevitt (62) · 7 years ago

Yes I agree

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lifestonetrading (43) · 7 years ago

I bought Ether @ $12.50 I have no trouble hodling this entire market

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blazing (70) · 7 years ago

how long it will go dipping :(

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tolkatore (55) · 7 years ago

No one can answer that question unfortunately, so just be careful.

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edb1984 (49) · 7 years ago (edited)

If it continues to fit the graphic then we should be hitting bottom over the next 3 to 4 weeks.

I suggest a buying strategy, to use this time to stock up on bitcoin. You could buy steem but the lower bitcoin goes the harder it's going to hit steem (like every altcoin). If it does get as bad as this graphic implies then steem could easily revisit $1 or even under for a time, and so the best thing you could buy as you're going down would be Bitcoin and then setting low buy orders for Steem, especially as the price could dip into it before bouncing up again and you get a good deal

Everyone was wishing Bitcoin would come back down so they can get more and they got their wish. We should have an alternative plan whether it goes up or down, sometimes it's not possible to make them equal but banking on one scenario is bad as you panic. Panic makes you do stupid stuff as you try and figure out what to do. Best to figure out your best worst plan is in advance, even if it's to realise you have none. In this case while you're trying to salvage plan A (ie. trying to save what you have) you'll probably make mistakes like selling at the bottom or getting caught in a bull trap and buying back in higher only to find it went even lower. That and general feelings of powerlessness which you always want to avoid. Anyway the point is the faster you can let go of one plan the faster you can make the best of what's changed.

So the best thing anyone can do here is to completely flip their point of view. This isn't a bad thing, it's the best thing. I just have to put my lambos and romantic moon getaways on hold. The Bitcoin space rocket has heard the prayers and wishes of people lamenting that they missed out on cheap prices and is giving another chance just like they wanted. But people won't see it that way they'll freak out and sell. People are going to miss out on this just like it was in 2014, maybe even sell at a loss. They'll see it go lower and lower and they won't buy until the next time they look and it's more than what they sold for, but they still don't buy or they see it as them losing even more until they finally buy back in way up the top again wishing they'd bought at the bottom.

Sorry this comment went on far longer than I intended. I suppose I'm mostly writing to myself so I'll remember. :)

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edb1984 (49) · 7 years ago (edited)

Just a little more of a rant...

This whole situation with Bitcoin is exactly the same situation I've been experiencing since I started in cyrpto in June with altcoins. The charts now look more or less the same on average to a hundred other charts, the psychology of buyers and holders look the same. The way when the price is on a bull run most people can have nothing bad to say and then when the price corrects "coincidentally" a large number suddenly find all these "problems" with it, that is until the price goes up again and then it's all sunshine and rainbows again. I've seen this happen over and over and over again.

In the case with Bitcoin it just happens to be the entire cryptocurrency market that's taking a hit, rather than one coin within the market. Rather than the FUD coming from elsewhere in crypto it's FUD from outside it, but I seriously see no difference whatsoever between the two it feels just the same with very similar stuff going on psychologically. In crypto when a coin goes up some people create FUD to make themselves feel better about having missed it, when it has a big correction the same people can keep up that FUD so they can congratulate themselves. The only difference is those outside of crypto don't have any and will now get to spend the next few months feeling smug. I think this will get harder and harder to do the more we see this pattern of Bitcoin keep repeating. There's only so many times you can point to a crash very publicly make a definitive statement that it's going to zero and then see the price reverse and exceed the previous high.

It's only a powerful influence when people do it now because for most of the world this is the only Bitcoin crash there's been, because even if you've been told about the others it's a totally different when you've been in a bull or bear market yourself and experienced it firsthand while its happening. That's why when you get into crypto at the start of either it defines what's normal to you. So if for months someones experienced bearish prices when the market goes into a bullish cycle they don't understand what's going on, they're only used to pump and dumps and so expect them to always amount to nothing. I saw it in the transition in the summer to late November to the start of the Alt season in 2017, people need to make sure they're staying alert and not still playing by last months or even last weeks rules

This was really the year Bitcoin came into public consciousnesses in a massive way and for many people pretty much for the first time. They were told this was a big bubble and now they will imagine that it's now bursting. Crucially they were made to believe when the bubble bursts it's not supposed to go back up again. People still think the "dotcom bubble" went to zero and didn't recover, that's why they also compare Bitcoin to something as frivolously empty as tulips.

Even the biggest FUDDers these past few months said it was going to at least +$50,000 and even Jamie Dimon said it could even get to $200,000. They also said it is due a correction after going parabolic. Well here is the correction and it's no longer defying gravity, but of course just like with altcoins every single period of healthy consolidation of a pump in price it's approached as if it's a disaster, that it's all going wrong and maybe it was bad coin, a bad project, lazy devs or no work is being done for some other reason, and even whispers (or screams) of "scam" ....until the last few people sell having been convinced and the prices goes up and suddenly those sellers find the market has a positive mood again and all that other stuff vanishes. 90% of cryptocurrency = this bipolar volatile hyperemotional crazy .

So the ones most famously negative to Bitcoin, by their own measure, is that this is just a correction on the way up much higher. But it will be forgotten about for however long it takes to complete, as they'll act as if they didn't say any of that in order to get the reward of kicking Bitcoin some more with smug self satisfaction by saying "I told you so" even though they didn't.

We'll see the sentiment change as the price recovers and if you had missed the space in between you'd wonder how they could suddenly become so positive about it after dragging it through the mud weeks earlier that will coincidentally just so happen to match with what the price of it was. I'll never understand why people think they can only pay attention to the crashes and dips and ignore the price increases. What a negative distorted way to see anything, where the allegorical glass is always seen as about to be empty when only paying attention when liquid is removed not added.

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ghalid (25) · 7 years ago

thanks my man, i have the sentiments and i'm new to this, i only have one regret, i invested in altcoins at around the the 10000 mark and again at 8000 mark, im out of cash for the 6000 and 5000 but hoping to see bitcoin hit 30000 by year end

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ashishpratap (25) · 7 years ago

HODL till Feb. March should be green

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tolkatore (55) · 7 years ago

I had too much gains to see it all just get wiped away, so I am currently sidelined, and will get back in during a consecutive healthy up-tick.

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kirbyhopper (44) · 7 years ago

So following the wave it looks like we've got a bit more Anxiety, Denial, and Panic ahead of us...and lower prices.

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theguruasia (67) · 7 years ago

@hilarski,
If this wave correct it might rise $30K next time :O Wow that's amazing!

Cheers~

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diogosantos (62) · 7 years ago

I´m not one of those "holders" that are trading/selling...I´m a buyer, and I'm delaying my buy a little bit more waiting for the price of BTC to get close to 5k. After that there is nothing that can make the markets to go down!!

This post is another prove that the 5K price is probably the closest to the real value of BTC and that´s why these correction is being done. Sucks for people who bought at 15K+, my last buy was at 11K.

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3 votes

hilarski (76) · 7 years ago

I have been all in for a few years so I am not buying but I am definitely HODLing.

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askmee (59) · 7 years ago

Me either I'm not selling its GONNA BE GREEN Mr @hilarski

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gikitiki (60) · 7 years ago

I only invest money I can afford to lose. So far, that strategy has performed well for me. I see this as an opportunity to buy some more, then HODL until we can choose the colour of our Lambo's.

:-)

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hedge-x (57) · 7 years ago

I am hodling till 2020 no matter what. Either I am sitting on a huge island sipping martinis or back where I was pre-2015. I see Blockchain as a once in lifetime opportunity almost like the Internet was in the early days. You'll only get a few chances in life like this.

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3 votes

damiancrypto (43) · 7 years ago

I will HODL my NEO's too!

Damiana, new pornstar becoming(check my blog for more...)

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rabeel (71) · 7 years ago (edited)

never selling in current scenerio, just hodl and wait on ship for better condition of market. i am hopeful for this and never lose hope. up and down is the part of trade. @hialarski your graph is much helpful to understand the whole story. thanks,

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damiancrypto (43) · 7 years ago

sometimes I'm feel weak and I want to sell :)))

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yaan (59) · 7 years ago (edited)

I thought it would be perfect to start climbing back from 6-7k.
So here we go, after a short break we should be fine.
And even if not - I invested only what I can afford to lose so fk it. I'll just hold forever then, because I rather die then not believe in the future of crypto))

hilarski (76) · 7 years ago

You and me both!

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nxtblg (62) · 7 years ago

If not we could be in for a bear market like we had in 2014. I don't think that is the case but just be forewarned that it is possible.

I'm already anticipating another '14-style bear. BUT....

I don't know anyone who is selling at these prices.

I'm not selling, unless I need to sell a little to help pay down my debt. If the bear keeps growling and clawing, I prolly won't sell any at all. Given crypto's long-term potential, there is such a thing as selling at too low a price.

In all honesty, except for personal exigencies, the only reason that someone should sell (imo) is to get out of a specific cryptocurrency that's gone wrong.

hilarski (76) · 7 years ago

I live 100% off of Crypto so eventually I have to sell a little but I am willing to eat rice and beans if I have to.

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nxtblg (62) · 7 years ago

So am I, and ramen as well :)

It's times like these which try us, test us and temper us if we see 'em through. Other than traders, including margin traders (!), I don't see many oldbies selling unless for personal reasons. I, for one, would love to see '15's market come back.

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kirbyhopper (44) · 7 years ago

I stop at Ramen...

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trendo (58) · 7 years ago

Nahhhh It's not worth to sell anything right now.

rothberg (58) · 7 years ago

It’s funny I was just looking at this graph and try to cool myself literally by taking cold shower, this always help.

milano1113 (58) · 7 years ago

Graph looks very scary, but on the other hand we already went through this few times where we had over 80% drop in bitcoin. For now I’m not adding to my position, I’m waiting fo volume to spike at least twice the average at the same time I want to see panic selling and that’s when I want to strike and add to my portfolio.

hilarski (76) · 7 years ago

I joined Crypto near the bottom of the last drop. The next leg up will be epic.

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dexter-k (67) · 7 years ago

Jump ship in the middle of the storm, or grab a life jacket, tie yourself to the mainmast and stare the storm down like it just might be the beast that will drag you down? So be it, I'll tie myself to the mast and ride the ship down rather than flounder in the waves every time.

hilarski (76) · 7 years ago

My kind of guy!

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dexter-k (67) · 7 years ago

Haha, nice man. If we gotta go down, why not go down like a champ right? But hey, I don't really think this ship is gonna sink ;)

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journeyoflife (67) · 7 years ago

I am going through the storm and hanging onto every part of the ship and trying not to fall off . I won’t let go of the rope

riska-amanda (68) · 7 years ago

certainly not friends, drowning in a storm is something scary, so be careful in stepping, please contact my friend's blog ..!

adnanrabbani (70) · 7 years ago

Well i believe that these dumps are part of crypto space and i will kept on hodling and i am sure we soon see nice green days.

maya7 (63) · 7 years ago

In this period of dountroden, all people are looking forward to your updates so thank you so much for sharing your valuable post.

eldahcee (54) · 7 years ago (edited)

I'm an optimist and I believe crypto (bitcoin) would bounce back..

#MyThoughts..

Are you doing a survey or something? @hilarski
Lol.

I guess unfavourable policies affected the market drastically but I'm of the opinion that "quite a number of people are still in the ship"

embracingchaos (50) · 7 years ago

I'm buying - only problem is whether to use my last little bit of spare cash to buy now or wait and see if it goes down further. I bought my first bitcoin at the top in 2014 and had a looooooooong wait till it moved. If we have to do it again so be it, but the fast-moving prices of last year are so much more fun 😀

preparedwombat (70) · 7 years ago

I’ve continued to hodl my BTC but have not been adding to it. “New” money is going into SP and BTS. Thinking about EOS too but don’t really understand the connection to Ethereum, a crypto I’d rather avoid.

Meh, even if I choose “wrong” I will probably do better than the masses who are not in the crypto space at all.

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atmosblack (63) · 7 years ago

I would agree to that. EOS and STEEM are the future. I´m just a little bit concerned about the unprofessional behaviour of Ned this weekend on Dans post and a war between EOS and STEEM is nothing we should wish for. (By the way, EOS has nothing to do with Ether - it just uses the Ethereum blockchain until June, when its own blockchain will go live)

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shabana1234 (57) · 7 years ago

thanks for information on bitcoin .

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theabsolute (63) · 7 years ago

Things were getting pretty heated when BTC hit (and smashed through) $10k. I really thought a correction was going to happen around then. Some people are going to get wiped out, and some people are going to profit. It might even be some coin like Steem that really takes off. I've definitely had my delusions of grandeur where LTC is $5k and Steem is the new Ethereum. Maybe it will be Zcash, maybe it will be Dogecoin, who knows. Let's just hope it's not Ripple (they're kind of like the New England Patriots of cryptocurrencies, lol).

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anayakhan (67) · 7 years ago

It's really informative and useful post @hilarski. You have described the bitcoin price in very well manner. The images are really perfect. Thanks for this great information.

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azizulhassan (65) · 7 years ago

well many people dont have an experince in it they just follow other people but at the same time there are some people like you who use minds and see the thng and thats why they are successfull love the post

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nayyabsipra (53) · 7 years ago

Great news and thanks for update cryptocurrency @hilarski

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iamanwaar (44) · 7 years ago

Looks like China's actions hit the market significantly,HODL is the only option left.
John McAfee still optimistic about bitcoin.lets see how market reacts the other day.

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atmosblack (63) · 7 years ago

Well, actually a guy like McAfee being bullish about something would mean that you should sell as fast as you can 😉

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iamanwaar (44) · 7 years ago

Well dude,I did say McAfee is hopeful of bitcoin's rise and just to motivate unfamiliar investors I referred his name. and I won't make any decision solely on one persons viewpoint.😊😊

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kirbyhopper (44) · 7 years ago

Curious what China did.

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iamanwaar (44) · 7 years ago

Perhaps this article helps you in understanding Chinese authority's cracked down on the investors & ICOS
https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/m.economictimes.com/markets/stocks/news/china-looks-to-stamp-out-cryptocurrency-trading/amp_articleshow/62789716.cms

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kirbyhopper (44) · 7 years ago

Thanks @iamanwaar. I'm not sure the connection of the current slide since the Chinese have been at it for about a year.

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iamanwaar (44) · 7 years ago

Well,there was FUD since late December 2013 amongst the Public Bank Of China and other market regulators here is quick link of superficial chronology of events that happens before the crackdown
https://www.google.co.in/amp/m.scmp.com/news/china/economy/article/2132119/beijing-bans-bitcoin-when-did-it-all-go-wrong-cryptocurrencies%3famp=1

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hunny437 (36) · 7 years ago

Thanks for the cryptocurrency Bitcoin news....

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shabaperween (62) · 7 years ago

Information about cryptocurrency it's great news....

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tonystarkr (6) · 7 years ago

its very useful for all steemers n thanks for sharing it @hilarski

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diya28 (53) · 7 years ago

peace will come after the storm

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nilima (8) · 7 years ago

thank you for your informational post...

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putry01 (57) · 7 years ago

it is not possible we want to jump friends, posting a very good friend

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rangertx (65) · 7 years ago

Remember you haven't lost until you sell. I know it depends on when you bought, but at this point Hodl seems to be the best plan.

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jschindler (52) · 7 years ago (edited)

Exactly! I got into bitcoin the latter part of 2014 and started buying from $600 down to a low around $200. These bear markets can be brutal. I lost money like crazy in the beginning trading back and forth between alts due to my own FUD during epic swings (especially in the alts during BTC ATH moments) that is basically the 'norm' for crypto prices. My prediction for 2018 BTC low is between $2900 & $4900. Hopefully $50-100K for a high. Gonna be a wild ride either way!

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nishaopt (48) · 7 years ago

I am stuck here
-cheers-

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jankasparec (68) · 7 years ago

You're right the Elliot Wave chart totally correlates now! Defo not selling a dime. And that meme at the end of your blog, damn Randy, I'm in love with it :D

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criptofuego (32) · 7 years ago

I'm a HOLDer too, and could be a great moment to buy more cryptos because of the low price they have.

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osovi (40) · 7 years ago

The information you provide helps us a lot.. Thanx for tha post.

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jamjamfood (58) · 7 years ago

Correct, we soon approach the "panic" phase. Relax and fasten your seatbelts. 😊 We are going downnnnnnn........

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team101 (61) · 7 years ago

Holding....I'm a believer!

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jlufer (75) · 7 years ago

I agree with you dear friend @hilarski, are are times to sell, to me paraecer in more of the same, something that we already have the criptomoneas accustomed and if you lose in the attempt, well, habara had to happen.

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edb1984 (49) · 7 years ago

Well if it is going to go like that it should only take a month or two to sort itself out

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latifah1 (55) · 7 years ago

I'm not sure Eliot wave theory is Bs. even if many say so, there may be other factors so that some may argue so, could be raised and developed by someone who feels jealous or rival or sebumpamanya. in my opinion it is impossible for someone not to avoid bad weather and to let the ship sink. we must try to save ourselves. so friends. thanks. Your post I wait

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steemclaira (50) · 7 years ago

I have no clear idea what to do..so i am keep waiting :)

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fazlehassan (42) · 7 years ago

i think you create a great post....i like it .....i hope everybody like your post....thanks for shear it...

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george-topalov (58) · 7 years ago

I am feeling bullish this year and I'm hodling hard.. Everything is out of the exchanges and on the hard wallets and waiting for that green light! Hope it comes soon.. if not we'll just wait! :)

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michelhenry (52) · 7 years ago

Amazing and nice post
Thanks for sharing

sir actually your updated post..

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justinashby (61) · 7 years ago

I am buying ZCL in hopes that Bittrex honors the BTCP snapshot on the 28th.

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suprepachyderm (56) · 7 years ago

I'm pretty sure that graph is akin to astrology, and the reason the price is sinking is because all the fud. All the banks and governments realized they would be obsolete soon if they did nothing, so they did something.

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connecteconomy (71) · 7 years ago

I'm hodling, too. Like you say, if the ship sinks, so be it.
It's only money! ;)
In a year we'll all laugh about it.
Or in a month. Even a short one like this :)

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jakeofthefoliage (47) · 7 years ago

What penny cryptos or undervalue alt coins do you recommend scooping up while the market corrects?

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booster916 (60) · 7 years ago

If BTC drops to 4k I will buy a lot of STEEM myself and power up. When the market gets back and Steem goes up again I will have a lot of SP and can give this platform more value

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futurelifee (48) · 7 years ago

Just be ready for the big day it comming soon because the business people make this game be like this they push it down when they want and push it up in the same way they made that to be easy for rich and go back like the old style

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manueljosecb (48) · 7 years ago

que le esta pasando a las criptomonedas que están bajando mucho?

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josecrespo (48) · 7 years ago

¿Qué está pasando por las criptomonedas que están bajando mucho?

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intrepidphotos (75) · 7 years ago

So true. Its just on fast forward with crypto!

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andrew4 (28) · 7 years ago (edited)

Time to buy BTC or ETH, will go for the latter.

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janice1 (43) · 7 years ago

It is about making you think from a different perspective..
Excellent post good analyses thanks for sharing.

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olyup (55) · 7 years ago

Bitcoin will be fine, plenty of good altcoin and token projects will be fine too. But people need to think long-term, and they need to realize that "long-term" does not mean two weeks.

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barby (44) · 7 years ago

Thanks for sharing this high quality content with us !
Appriciate that

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jaimewilliam (53) · 7 years ago

I am HODL thanks to the December gains

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jprocks (37) · 7 years ago

The way I view this downturn is quite simply a "Sale". Happy days...

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