It's interesting looking at the spread of the virus and trying to attach some reasoning as to why some countries have dealt with the virus better than others. It was only 6 weeks ago that Italy was the epicentre of the virus in Europe and the world look aghast as it battled with grief and despair.
Yesterday, UK posted the largest death toll in Europe with over 30,000 deaths and amazingly, despite the figures, talks of easing the lockdown are making rounds across the country. It wasn't that long ago that UK was said to be "2 weeks behind Italy" and now it seems it has over taken it in terms of the spread.
Other places in Europe have handled the virus much better than others. For instance, Germany, which has "only" seen just over 7000 deaths at time of writing.
Why are some countries finding it easier to shake off the virus than others?
Some new research on the strains of the virus might give us some answers.
There are now 14 mutations found on the spike protein itself, and one in particular seems to be particularly dangerous than the others.
Recent evidence has suggested that the G-type carries a much larger (2.5x) viral load and thus account for it's increased deadliness as well as transmissibility. Compared with the D-type, you can see in the chart below how it has out competed the D-type.
Worse still, this G-type spike protein poses further problems as it mutates from the older D-type as the spike protein becomes resistant to antibodies against the D-type strain. Up till now, even antibodies against the SARS-CoV-1 had some value against the D version of SARS-CoV-2, but this is apparently not the case with the G-type.
It is too early to say, but I would guess that this might explain why some people are getting re-infected after they recover from their first bout with illness. Up until recently, it was assumed that you might be immune from getting the virus if you've already had it but then G showed up and who knows what might come next.
This new research puts a firm question on whether immunity passports are meaningful or even viable. With new strains coming into the mix, being immune to one strain does not reflect immunity to another.
It also helps to explain why some clinical drug trials have better results in some countries than in others. Depending on the distribution of infection in terms of the type of strain, you would expect to see those drugs working better in countries where the drug works well against D, but not G.