BITCOIN: The Trend Line Battle

A few words

Assuming that we're going to see another rejection at the well-known descending trend line, here is the more detailed version of my previous article, where I mentioned that I'm looking for a sweet spot to enter a short position. This article is about the battle between the linear and logarithmic charts and is written from a "bearish" perspective.

Using the logarithmic scale

In the first situation (A), I'm using the logarithmic chart to determine the position of the descending trend line. This trend line captures the highest points on previous local highs, marked with a red arrow - Dec 11, 2017 & June 24 2019. As you can see, we're close to this trend line once again and it's probable to interact with it in the upcoming period. If we're going to get another local high at this specific trend line, it's gonna be somewhere between $11000-11500, based on if we're getting there this week or the following ones. Another aspect to look at is the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level ($11500) of the Dec. 2017 - Dec. 2019 price movement. Keep in mind that the previous local high - June 2019 - reached exactly the top of the golden pocket ($14000) of this same Fibonacci retracement; therefore, reaching now the 0.5 if quite possible.

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Still on the logarithmic scale, I'm now using the Fibonacci retracement on the June 2019 - March 2020 movement. As you can see, the trend line does not align with any Fib. level and reaching it, means for us first to break the 0.618-0.65 golden pocket resistance, together with the Feb. 2020 local high.

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Using the linear scale

In the second situation (B), I'm now using the linear scale to determine the position of the previously mentioned trend line. The trend line still captures the previous local highs, marked with red arrows - but a significant change is to be seen when trying to determine the next local high. Based on when we're going to do so, this specific level is somewhere between $10500-10800, does not align with any Fibonacci retracement levels of the Dec. 2017-Dec.2018 price movement, but is near the local high from Feb. 2020 ($10500). Considering this specific price action, we could see some sort of a double-top pattern in the following week(s).

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Still on the linear scale, I'm now using the Fibonacci retracement tool on the June 2019 - March 2020 price movement. As you can see, we have the golden pocket between $10080 (we already reached this level last night) and $10400, the previous local top $10500 and the descending trend line at 10700$ - so a lot of resistance is in this area.

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Conclusion

As far as I know, most traders are using the logarithmic charts (A version), but I find it important to also see the other side of the coin. Assuming that we're going to see another rejection in the following period, either using the logarithmic or linear chart, there's the $10080-11500 area which represents our major concern right now. It's up to you now to decide what chart works best for you and whether you're a bull or a bear these days.

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Thanks for reading and safe trading!✌

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