Hello friends of Project HOPE, I hope you are feeling very well this week as it reaches its second day. Today I want to share my opinion regarding something that is happening, and it has to do with the effect that the United States presidential elections may have on the markets.
Until now we could say, in a general way, that if Trump wins, given that he has been openly pro-crypto, the market could go up, but that if Kamala Harris wins, who is part of the Democrats, who in the presidential term have been openly limiting with the crypto environment, then the market could fall. The detail here is that it makes no sense to see it that way, because although it may be a short-term reaction, the long-term reality, at least for me, is different.
Let's see, markets are living organisms, practically, since behind them, what there are are people putting money in and taking out money with the intention of obtaining benefits, so in the end, the market reacts by emotions, and these are defined by certainty. or the uncertainty that the people who are the investors have to face.
For now, it is not known, regardless of whether there are polls or trends of one side or the other favored, Democrats or Republicans, the reality is that it is uncertain who will win, and in view of this uncertainty, the market is the wait
As I said before, at least that's what I think, if Kamala wins, the market's first reaction may be downward, and probably strongly, however, we could see this for a few weeks perhaps, or maybe days, but will end in a moment, and then resume its long-term bullish path
Why do I believe this?, because if there is a particular result, we would already know what the government line would be, and this generates stability and certainty, which is what investors need to know for the next 4 years. years of government, in which they will know or have a better idea of what the rules will be by which they must play in the financial markets.
In the end, regardless of the crises, of everything that hits the market, whether black swans or not, the truth is that the market has risen steadily since its origins. Even Bitcoin, we can see that since its creation in 2008-2009 it has done nothing but rise, especially if we see it in the long term, obviously, with its respective falls, some more pronounced than others.
But there is a reality, and that is that when there is large capital invested, such pronounced falls are not usually the norm; on the contrary, a type of stability ends up being generated, although logically this is not an unchangeable rule, and we could see impressive falls. Anyway, all that remains is to wait, be patient, and continue in the game, I say goodbye, everyone have a great day.
