When You Predict The Facebook "Coin" 4 Months Before It's Announced - The "I Told You So" Syndrome

in steemit •  7 years ago 

Well, I hate to say it, but I will say it anyway: 4 months ago, I wrote the article snapshotted below:


Screen Shot 2018-05-12 at 9.26.35 AM.png


Since one of the benefits of the blockchain is that it keeps everything untampered, for ever, you can have a look for yourself here.

I told you so. I told you that Facebook will switch to a tokenized version, basically doing what they know to do best: sit, watch, see what's working and basically copying it. And if they can't copy, they will probably buy it. For the last 5 years Facebook sat on their comfy chairs while selling data to advertisers for dozens of billions. They did it relentlessly, until this business model exploded so bad, that they had to explain it to the Congress.

Now they're after "the next shiny thing", and, surprise-surprise, this next shiny thing happens to be this strange concept called "cryptocurrency". The same cryptocurrency which they banned from advertising on their wall.

I think this is the beginning of the end for Facebook. Not because they will fail at implementing a proprietary crypto (which will be, just like I wrote in the article cited above, just a glorified loyalty points system). But because, in doing so, they will validate the entire crypto-economy. They will basically play on a more even field, allowing other competitors to have a shot at this social media thing.

How will the Steem blockchain benefit from this? It's a complex question, because Steem is a complex organism: there's Steemit INC, there are witnesses, there are already formed communities and alliances. It's a pretty fragmented world, if you really look at it.

The key factor in getting a place at the big table that just opened by Facebook crypto announcement is "synergy". And by that I mean the ability to cooperate towards a common goal.

Based on what I've seen so far, this is probably the most difficult thing for the prominent members of this organization. If we look at how the "Steemit chart" is looking, it's still like a medieval structure of small protectorates which are fighting with each other. If a monolith like Facebook will really want to conquer it, it will succeed by the sheer power of focused actions.

But, to be honest, I do love the tech behind Steemit and I hope to be proved wrong.


I'm a serial entrepreneur, blogger and ultrarunner. You can find me mainly on my blog at Dragos Roua where I write about productivity, business, relationships and running. Here on Steemit you may stay updated by following me @dragosroua.


Dragos Roua


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They should launch a facebook SMT lol

Facebook became a giant due to many people adapting to its platform. Whether this will continue will be remained to be seen. Their transformation needs to be accepted by its users. I think even with facebook crypto coin the overall crypto market will benefit and maybe with more competition people will realize the potential of steemit and participate more on steemit. Thanks.

If i stand correct.... as I was watching the Bloomberg interview with Ned. The host asked about competitors in this industry such as Facebook. To pharaphrase what Ned said... he stated he will create a system which they can use to also make their platforms a reward type system. So if anything Steemit could monetize off of other platforms instead of just completely dominating and trying to eradicate them from the market. That would be a win win for all platforms essentially.

And zuckerberg is definitely the biggest 🐍 and copier in the business world. If he can’t be apart of something, he will copy it and make it better 😂😂

That's a very interesting point of view. I doubt Facebook will use Steemit, but first, I may be wrong, and second, if they do, it will be really great :)

haha. Let’s hope Steemit makes it to the top (:

Steem is open source, nothing stops them from taking it for granted and modify it here and there...

@dragosroua @researchgeek great point guys

Facebook will not use steemit. They may use STEEM once SMT will be completed.

The way I see it is that Ned want to provide all giants with necessary tools. I've seen some comparison to gold miners and those who were selling them tools -> they made the most money during that time.

Facebook will just build a better version themselves. I agree with Dragos, I don't see them adopting Steem, but we can dream can't we.

I don't want Facebook to use steemit because they are sending all their user's data to China, I like the Chinese people but I hate the Goverment's ideology.

This is bittersweet. I think this move will fasttrack cryptocurrency, but I don't like the thought of large public companies using ICOs just to raise funds when their real value is tied to their stock price.

They have more pressing problems than just creating a coin. They can't capture the teen market despite many desperate attempts and they lack trust and transparency, which are need in the crypto space. I know they will just throw billions at it and probably be fine, but this is troublesome and it going to be a rockier road than they are anticipating in my humble opinion.

I love your serie of articles. So much value in them.

I also believe FB is dying and I cannot imagine how creating their own coin could help. There is already almost no traffic on facebook and it's not going to get any better.

Great post. Upvoted.

Can we call you the futurologist of Steemit now? And if you can also predict the rise of two or three coins, let me know ;)

:))

If we look at how the "Steemit chart" is looking, it's still like a medieval structure of small protectorates which are fighting with each other.

This is such a perfect description of how I see Steemit too @dragosroua.

Sadly I don't see much movement towards the ability to cooperate towards a common goal.

I'm just enjoying it while it lasts and watching with curiosity as to where it will end up! 😊

Unlike Facebook, steemit doesn't have a publicity department, Facebook dies. Facebook flopped by selling data, but 99.98% of my friends are still there, why are they not back to Steemit?

There are so many things we need to fix here, like bad actors, excessive selling of votes by whales exactly, cool interface and app.

Many people don't wanna know how each works, they just need convenience.

do you want to know how, in great detail, your phone works?
or do you just want to use it?

We need more developers to build a better application for Android and ios. Alsoo speed is an issue

You are right, Facebook will become something like XRP (not-so-decentralized). The world do not trust facebook anymore.

In area of tools sophistication, steemit have a long way to go. Running targeted ads on steemit is hard, tho their is a way around it.

I'm inclined to think the world never trusted Facebook. Does'nt seem to have hindered them though.

if facebook creates a coin the only competitor is going to be ripple lol

If the blockchain is a centralized am sure they would buy it, like they bought whatsapp, instagram and the likes. If you can't beat them, buy them

  ·  7 years ago (edited)

Facebook management has had time to study their potential threats and can probably see the greater engagement of their userbase with a crypto reward scheme to underpin advertising revenue in the long term.
As far as the data scandal is concerned, it's past its news cycle and will not be an issue for them. Facebook is in a lot of ways a vanity platform, their avid users just do not care who knows what.

A bear always wins when it attacks a swarm of bees, wasps or ants.

or does it?

It was a great and effective prediction @dragosroua..
And now we are starting to see your predict result...

Facebook is just a time waste!
When i joined steemit, i almost stopped using facebook!
Their sheep's face is opened now to all the world!

Facebook are so far behind the game now. It does seem that they have just been enjoying massive profits, while not making the right changes until now when its a bit late and they got caught out. Although they will try and somehow put FAcebook on the blockchain I cant see it being successful.

Steem will reign supreme!

Fat chance that will ever happen. If FB started offering incentives in cypto it would be bye bye Steemit not the other way around.

Mabe, if they did it well. It could be a disaster and the downfall of Facebook...

FB would have to end up operating like Steemit does....a demand for high quality content that newbies keep fostering until totally frustrated over the inability to get a foot in the door and drop out, but the promises of riches to be made keep bringing in new newbies to hold the system up.

Sort of like real life....if everyone could be a millionaire who'd clean the bathrooms? If everyone on Steemit could be a millionaire who'd keep the ocean floor clean?

Yeah, but I think then the problem lies that the majority of people on Facebook dont want to spent time thinking up writing engaging posts - if they did they would be blogging or on Steemit. The level of thought and engagement on Facebook is awful - gives me a headache when I visit!

Yeah well everyone on Steemit wont be a millionaire anytime - long live the minnow!!

Yeah Facebook does like doing that sitting and watching while in the background researching ways to innovate or at least get more data hahahha

If they can't do it then they buy the Company. We ahve seen it so many times that they just bought off the competition and assimilated it like the reptile person Lizardburg is (I am joking at this point)

Facebook could plop down a couple of millions get the biggest stake there is and become the top 20 witnesses and it's subsidiaries. That is a frightening thought.

It is funny how they were in the forefront of the FUD and banning all Cryptos in their walls only now to build their own.

Facebook will not be interested in joining steemit, they have all it takes to build theirs.

true with less than a hundred 100k active users right now their is not much to get.

Facebook has the brand recognition and money to burn to build their own.

This thing continues to scare me...

facebook coin would be great for cryptocurrency massadoption

I think think steemit can defeat facebook just we have to make some efforts for stewm thanks @dragosroua for this great post.

image

Now everyone is joining Steemit from Facebook and the number of Facebook users is decreasing day by day. I also join

If facebook do develop a new coin, this will signify the start of mass adoption for crypto . Also the time to load up on bitcoin

I didn't see anything in either of those articles about FB developing a reward system.

Gbam!

Can facebook actually win competition against steemit and Golos? We trust those guys no more.

The facebook coin or whatever name they are gonna assign to it, is gonna fail big time..

Which road does Facebook take? Build their own blockchain, or do they tap into an existing one. If the latter, which one? If the former, how quickly can they roll it out and integrate? What form does any of it take?

A lot of the decision making may come down to hubris. "We're Facebook!" If that's the case, then Zuckerburg will have his own blockchain, no matter what the cost. Otherwise, any blockchain they would jump on would have to handle millions of transactions quickly and efficiently.

I suppose EOS could come into play and Facebook could go through them. Then, they wouldn't be dependent on any one given blockchain were something to go wrong.

I know, there's always SMTs hanging in the wings. I think we'd want to see a few smaller scale sites successfully get aboard first before going straight to El Gargantuan.

I don't know. There's as good a chance that Facebook goes it alone as they try to hitch the behemoth to someone else's blockchain. I just wonder how long that's going to take?

Yep, you called it. I remember reading your article and thinking that it probably wouldn't even be a month. They must have gotten derailed with the whole info-selling scandal. The press has shut up about that though, so the story has died down. Now they're free to start the team to release the next tech that FB can use to mine and sell your data.