从狂热到失望：国庆后A股市场的过山车之旅

这个星期由于国庆调休的关系，周六也是工作日。休息一天后，明天又是股市开市的时候了。自从央行行长的新闻发布会调动起了股市的热情，大批从来不炒股的90后、00后也开始杀入股市。股市在国庆长假之前也是一改多年的颓势猛烈上涨，可以说央行行长的这次新闻发布会是相当成功的。

而其他的政府部门也有样学样，接连发布利好政策，想要进一步提升股市的行情。比如在10月8号，股市开盘第一天的上午，国家发改委就召开发布会，把股民的胃口吊得老高。结果会上只说出了一些空话套话。甚至在媒体记者追问新的刺激措施有多大规模时，主持发布会的官员还闹出了笑话。对这个十分明确的问题，他顾左右而言他，猛拍自己领导的马屁。由于发布会公布的政策严重不及预期，股市从开盘封涨停的状态一路下跌，将那些不顾一切冲入股市的90后、00后新股民毫不留情地留在了高位上站岗。

在接下来的交易日里，股市基本上不是下跌就是横盘，没有任何有力度的反弹。然后昨天，虽然是工作日但股市并不遵守这一作息，而是休市。于是财政部也来召开新闻发布会，来公布自己的经济刺激政策，为股市打"强心针"。但是从一些财经媒体的分析来看，这次发布会并不比发改委的强多少，也没有提出具体的政策规模。只是说规模很大，非常类似于平常单位里的领导鼓励新同事好好干，全程都是光明的画大饼话术。

而且提到的政策方向全部是为各种债务所困的地方政府兜底，丝毫没有提到被外界期盼的刺激消费的政策。比如像疫情期间美国政府那样直接补贴民众，刺激消费的政策。这次的政策被形象地称为"救官不救民"。当然之前也说过，直接印钱发给民众，并不能救助到有经济困难的民众，只会造成更大的通货膨胀，提升物价水平，进一步降低民众的生活水平。

但是无节制地为地方政府兜底，同样也有巨大的负面作用。这些地方政府之所以会债务累累，就是因为他们根本没有市场眼光，投资的项目全都是不能产生良好经济效益的亏损项目，或者说赔钱货。这种无原则的兜底，会鼓励他们搞出更多没有经济效益的项目，浪费更多的资源，消耗更多的资本，长期来看还是会使民众的生活水平下降。

之前有传闻说，世界银行还是什么国际金融组织建议中国政府用相当于GDP很小一部分的金额（大约是20,000亿）来接手烂尾楼完成续建并救助经营陷入困境的房地产公司。结果被中国政府断然拒绝，并且在回复中还说明了理由，说这样做会产生道德风险。这无疑是非常正确的。这就像一个娇生惯养的孩子一样，如果不管他犯出多大的错，父母都不惩罚他，还帮他积极擦屁股，那么他永远也不会成长。尽管他生理上已经是一个成年人了，在他的心里永远是一个巨婴。这说明政府官员是明白这个道理的，但是到了地方政府身上，怎么就不适用了呢？

总之政府通过释放利好刺激股市经济的三声炮响，只有央行的第一炮打响了，后面两发现在看基本都是哑炮。所以明天的行情多半还是会继续下跌，是否会出现暴跌？只能让参与其中的股民们自求多福了。其实就算是打响的第一炮，央行行长表态里面也说的是一个模棱两可的话。虽然他提出了让机构可以通过质押股票证券直接从央行获取低息贷款来炒股票，但这件事只是试点，效果好才会继续下去。而这几天的行情来看，很难说效果很好吧？所以唯一的央行利好政策看上去不是那么靠谱。

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这个星期由于国庆调休的关系，周六也是工作日休息，今天一天，明天又是股市开市的时候了。自从央行行长的新闻发布会调动起了。股市的热情。大批年。大批从来不炒股的，00后90后也开始杀入股市。我是在国庆长假之前。也是一改多年的颓势。猛烈上涨，可以说。央行行长的这次新闻发布会是相当的成功。而其他的政府部门。也有样学样。接连发布利好政策，进一步提升股市的行情。比如在10月8号。股市开盘第1天的上午，国家发改委就召开。发布会。把股民的胃口吊的老高。结果会上只说出了一些。光话套话。甚至。在媒体记者追问新的。就是措施有多大规模时。主持发布会的官员还闹出了笑话。对这个十分明确的问题，顾左右而言他猛拍自己领导的马屁。由于发布会公布的政策严重不及预期。侍从。开盘封涨停的状态，一路下跌。将那些不顾一切冲入股市的新股民。90后00后新股民。毫不留情地留在了香港上。在接下来的交易日里。股市基本上不是下跌就是横盘，没有任何有力度的反弹。然后昨天。虽然工作日但是并不遵守这一作息，而是修饰于是财政部。也来召开新闻发布会，来公布自己的经济刺激政策，为股市。打惊喜。但是。从一些财经媒体的分析来看，这次发布会，财政部的这次发布会并不比发改委的。强多少？也没有提出具体的政策规模。只是说。规模很大，非常类似于。平常单位里的领导鼓励。新同事好好干。全程一定光明的画大饼话术。而且提到的政策方向全部是为。对。各种债务所困的地方政府兜底。丝毫没有知道。被外界。期盼的。市级消费直接我也期盼着像疫情期间美国政府那样。直接补贴民众。刺激消费的政策。被形象地称为救官不救民。当然之前也说过。直接印钱。发给民众，并不能。救助到有经济困难的民众，只会造成。更大的通货膨胀。提升物价水平。进一步降低民众的生活水平。但是无节制的。为地方政府兜底。同样也是。负面作用巨大。这些地方政府之所以会债务累累，就是因为他们根本没有。市场眼光，投资的项目全都是。不能产生良好经济效益。亏损项目或者说赔钱货。这种无原则的兜底体会，鼓励他们搞出更多。没有经济效益的项目，浪费更多的资源。消耗更多的资本，长期来看还是使民众的生活水平下降。之前有传闻说。世界银行还是什么国际金融组织建议中国政府？用相当于。 Gdp很小一部分的金额大约是20,000亿。搜狗。烂尾楼完成续建并救助经营陷入困境的房地产公司。结果被中国政府断然拒绝。并且在回复中还说明了理由，说这样做会产生道德风险。这无疑是非常正确的。我在这里就像一个娇生惯养的孩子一样，如果不管他有出多大的货。父母。都不惩罚他。还帮他积极擦屁股，那么他永远也不会成长，尽管他生理上已经是一个成年人了，在他的心里永远是一个巨婴。这说明政府官员是明白这个道理的，但是到了地方政府身上。怎么就不适用了呢？

总之政府。通过释放利好刺激股市经济的三声炮响，只有央行的第1炮打响了后面两发，现在看基本都是鸭蛋，所以明天的行情多半，还是会继续下跌，是否会出现暴跌？只能。让参与其中的股民们自求多福了。其实就算是打响的第1炮，央行的行长表态里面也说的是一个。模棱两可的话，虽然他提出了让机构可以通过质押图片直接从央行。获取贫困印刷的钱来炒股票，暂时。他也是。有条件的，这件事只是试点。效果好才会继续下去，而这几天的行情来看。很难说。效果很好吧？所以唯一的央行利好政策看上去不是那么靠谱。

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This week, due to the National Day holiday, Saturday is also a working day off, today is a day, and tomorrow is the time for the stock market to open. Since the press conference of the head of the central bank, it was mobilized. Enthusiasm for the stock market. A large number of years. A large number of people who have never speculated in stocks, the post-00s and post-90s have also begun to enter the stock market. I was before the National Day holiday. It is also a change from years of decline. Rose violently, so to speak. The press conference of the central banker was quite a success. and other government departments. There are also examples. Favorable policies have been released one after another to further enhance the stock market. For example, on October 8th. On the morning of the first day of the stock market, the National Development and Reform Commission held a meeting. Conference. The appetite of shareholders hangs high. As a result, only a few were said at the meeting. Light words. Even. In the media reporters asked about the new. It's just how big the measure is. The official who presided over the press conference also made jokes. For this very clear question, he slapped his leader's sycophants on the left and right. Due to the policy announced at the press conference, it was seriously lower than expected. Chamberlain. The opening is in a state of closing the daily limit, and it has fallen all the way. Rush those new investors into the stock market at all costs. New shareholders of the post-90s and post-00s. Stayed in Hong Kong without mercy. In the following trading days. The stock market is basically either down or sideways, without any strong rebound. And then yesterday. Although the working day does not observe this routine, it is embellished by the Ministry of Finance. Also come to hold a press conference to announce their own economic stimulus for the stock market. Hit the surprise. But. Judging from the analysis of some financial media, this press conference, the press conference of the Ministry of Finance is no better than that of the National Development and Reform Commission. How much stronger? Nor did it propose a specific policy scale. Just saying. The scale is large, very similar. Usually the leaders in the unit are encouraged. Good job to your new colleagues. The whole process must be bright to draw a big pie speech. And all the policy directions mentioned are for. Right. Local governments are trapped by various debts. Didn't know at all. by the outside world. Expectant. Municipal consumption is direct, and I also look forward to being like the United States government during the pandemic. Direct subsidies to the population. Policies to stimulate consumption. It is vividly called saving officials but not saving the people. Of course, I said it before. Direct money printing. Sent to the public, it can't. Helping people with financial difficulties will only cause. Greater inflation. Raise the price level. Further reduce the living standards of the population. But unrestrained. Cover for local governments. The same goes for it. The negative effects are huge. These local governments are in debt because they don't. Market vision, investment projects are all there. It does not produce good economic benefits. Loss-making projects or money-losing goods. This kind of unprincipled experience encourages them to make more. Projects without economic benefits waste more resources. Consuming more capital will still reduce people's living standards in the long run. There were rumors before. The World Bank or what international financial organization advises the Chinese government? With the equivalent of. A very small fraction of GDP is about 2,000 billion. Sogou. The construction of the unfinished building was completed and the real estate company in distress was rescued. The result was categorically rejected by the Chinese government. And in the reply, he also gave a reason, saying that doing so would create moral hazard. This is undoubtedly very true. I'm like a pampered kid here, if it doesn't matter how much he sells. Parents. and not punish him. also help him actively wipe his buttocks, then he will never grow, even though he is already an adult physically, and he will always be a giant baby in his heart. This shows that government officials understand this truth, but when it comes to local governments. Why doesn't it apply?

In short, the government. Through the release of the three cannons to stimulate the stock market economy, only the first shot of the central bank fired the last two, and now it looks basically duck eggs, so most of tomorrow's market will continue to fall, will there be a plunge? Only. Let the shareholders who participate in it ask for more blessings. In fact, even if it is the first shot, the governor of the central bank also said one in his statement. Ambiguous words, although he offered to allow institutions to pledge pictures directly from the central bank. Get the money from the poverty print to speculate in stocks, temporarily. So did he. Conditionally, this matter is only a pilot. The effect will continue if it is good, and the market in the past few days. Hardly. Works great, right? So the only central bank policy doesn't look so reliable.