接着聊明朝覆亡之谜:纸币与白银的较量

接着昨天的话题说明朝灭亡,导致明朝灭亡的原因是没钱。而没钱的原因是由于纸币制度在明朝初年就被糟蹋了。所以在明朝统治的大部分时期,所使用的货币都是硬通货白银。而白银的来源主要有两个:一是西班牙从美洲开采的银矿通过海上贸易输入中国;另一个则是沿海居民与日本进行走私贸易换取的日本白银。当然,后一渠道在海禁开放之后,也就变成了合法的贸易渠道。而曾经被称为"倭寇"的日本人,也从此在历史上消失了。为抗击"倭寇"而设的卫所军也被调动到北部边境防御蒙古人,这说明很多所谓的社会和国家安全问题,其实都是政府一刀切,阻断民间贸易所导致的。

有了这两大白银输入来源之后,本来白银作为一种矿产,国内的产量是不足以支撑明帝国这样一个庞大国家所需货币量的。但有了海外输入,就足以满足国内社会对货币的需求。再加上白银作为硬通货的属性,自然比什么大明宝钞之类滥发的纸币更受人们青睐。于是很快连朝廷的税收都只接受白银了。

可以说,明朝所处的那个时代正值人类历史上第一次全球化时代的开启,随着欧洲近代化的到来和大航海时代的到来。尽管明朝政府和所有封建王朝一样,随着存续时间的延长,其官僚机构不断膨胀效率愈发低下,消耗的财政资源也越来越大。但得益于全球化和海上贸易的飞速发展,白银的流入量也在持续增加。这导致了在很长一段时间内,尽管大明朝机构臃肿,军队战斗力低下,但仍能凭借庞大的体量,并不显得十分缺钱,甚至在万历帝连年征战中,明朝都能凭借体量压垮对手,其中就包括著名的万历援朝战争。

但到了明末崇祯一朝,情况发生了变化。现在有很多说法解释了这一变化的原因。比较有名的是小冰期之说,就是在崇祯年间,全球气候进入了小冰期,气温下降,农作物减产。虽然当时欧洲各国已经开启了近代化进程,但工业革命尚未发生,全世界包括明朝在内的国家仍以农业为基础产业。气候的变化导致农作物减产和生活水平下降,明朝的生产力水平随之下降,与海外的贸易量也出现了下降趋势。

再加上欧洲的局势也发生了变化,英国和荷兰崛起为新的海上霸权,开始挑战西班牙的主导地位。这些欧洲国家之间爆发了争霸战争,为了应付这些战争,他们不再坐视白银通过贸易向东方大国流失,开始加强了对白银输出的管制,使得明朝从海外获取白银的数量大幅减少。

另一大白银来源日本,经过战国时期的混战后进入了由幕府大将军掌权的幕府时代。德川幕府为了巩固权力,也在日本实行了闭关锁国政策,从日本流入中国的白银也大幅减少。其结果就是明朝的财政收入锐减。

如果只从上述原因解释,似乎明朝是无辜的,只是受到了天灾和国际形势变化的影响而最终走向灭亡。但事实真的如此简单吗?如果我们再深入思考货币的经济学原理,会发现这种解释并不够充分。

货币只是一种交换媒介,在自由市场中,本质上每个人都是在用自己的劳动成果交换别人的劳动成果。大家之所以先用一种所有人都需要的商品作为中介,再去换取所需商品,是因为双方想交换的产品并不总是一一对应。而货币的多少并不会影响市场的交易活动,只会表现为物价的上下波动。所以,明朝晚期白银输入减少的情况下,只要让市场自行调节抬高白银价格,一切问题都可以迎刃而解。

问题的关键还是在于明朝官僚机构的低效和官员的俸禄无法下调。明朝聘用的官差和衙役虽然工作无能,却不能随意裁员或降薪,自然就承担不起过高的开支。最后不得不裁撤低级官员,结果激化了矛盾,从而酿成大错。

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接着昨天的话题说明朝灭亡，导致明朝灭亡的原因是没钱。而卖钱的原因是由于纸币制度在明朝初年就被亡坏了。所以在明朝统治的大屯时期，所使用的货币都是硬通货白银。而白银的来源主要了所洲的殖民帝国。西班牙从美洲开采的银矿通过海上贸易输入中国，另一个则是沿海居民与日本进行走私贸易换取的日本白银。当然，这一渠道在农庆开关之后，也就变成了合法的贸易渠道。而屡角不进的倭寇，也曾经从此从历史上消失了，以抗击倭寇为名的时易军也被调动到北部边境防御。蒙古人去了，也说明很多所谓的社会和国家安全问题，其实都是政府一刀切，都是朝廷一刀切，阻断民间贸易所导致的。原来这两大白银输入来源之后，本来白银作为一种矿产，国内的产量是不足以支撑民帝国这样一个庞大的国家所需要的货币量的。但是有了这两大来源之后，就足以满足国内社会需求的货币量。再加上白银作为硬通货的属性，自然比什么大明宝钞之类滥发的纸币要更受人们青睐。于是很快连朝廷的税收都是接受白银了，而且明朝也确实赶上了好时代。随着欧洲近代化的开启，其大航海时代的到来，可以说明朝所处的那个时代，是人类历史上第一次全球化时代，尽管明朝政府和所有的封建王朝一样。随着它的存续及官僚机构不断的膨胀效率愈发低下，消耗的财政资源也越来越大，但是得益于全球化和海上贸易的飞速发展，白银的流入量也在持续增加，这导致了在很长一段时间内，尽管大明朝机构臃肿，军队战斗力低下，但是仍然可以凭借庞大的体量，但是并不显得缺钱，甚至在万历黄帝连接，还有所谓的万历三大洲。在三场战争中，明朝都凭借自己的体量压垮了对手，其中就包括著名的万历援朝战争。但是到了明末天，其崇祯一潮情况就发生了变化。但现在说法有很多原因导致了这些变化。比较有名的是小冰期之说，就是在天启崇祯年间，全球的气候进入了小冰期，气温下降，农作物减产。虽然当时已经开启了欧洲各国，已经开启了近代化进程，但工业革命尚未发生。农业全世界包括明朝仍然是以农业为基础产业，农业养活了绝大部分的人口，而气候的变化，导致农作物的减产和生活水平的下降，也就导致明朝的生产力水平下降，就像多米诺骨牌一样一环接一环，导致与海外的贸易量也持分下降趋势，再加上欧洲的局势也发生了变化。英国和荷兰崛起即为新的海上霸权，开始挑战西班牙的霸主地位。这些欧洲国家之间也爆发了争霸的战争，所谓大炮一响，黄金万两西班了。为了应付，这些战争，也是花钱如流水，所以也不再坐视白银。通过贸易向东方大国流失，开始了收紧白银的政党开始加强了白银输出的管制，使得想使得明朝从海外获取白银的数量大幅减少统一时期。另一大白银的来源，日本经过战国时期的混战进入了由幕府大将军掌权的幕府时代进入德川幕府时期，幕府大将军已经掌握了集中了相当大的权力，成为事实上的其中了足了应付权力地位的考虑，葛川幕府也在日本实行闭关锁国的政策，从日本流入他的白银也变得也大幅减少，其结果就是明朝的财政收入锐减。所以明朝末期没钱的原因也就不难解释了，但是等一等。但是问题的答案真的如此简单吗？其实这样一说，明朝真的是挺无辜的。因为天灾和国际形势的变化，才导致最后的灭亡窘境。其实如果能够再深入的了解一下货币的经济学多思考会发现，虽然这个解释言之有理，但仍然只有推卸责任之嫌。首先我们这得搞清楚货币到底是什么货币，简单说它只是一种交换媒介。在自由交换的市场当中，其实从本质上来讲，还是每个人在用自己的劳动成果去交换别人的劳动成果。这是并不是用自己的产品和服务，能够正好是你所需要的，正好是别人需要的。于是大家就先和一个所有人都需要的商品进行交换，然后再去换取自己所需要的商品。所以货币的多少，在这个过程中并不是问题，货币多的情况下，就会表现为物价水平的下降。货币少的情况下，嗯，白银就会升值。总的来说，它不会影响市场的交易活动。货币需要多少，并不会影响市场的交易活动。所以，像明朝晚期这种情况，货部的白银输入减少，只要让市场自行调节抬升白银的下格，所有的问题都会迎刃而解。问题的关键还是是明朝官僚机构的低效和该板官员的俸禄加上来了，就没办法减下去。聘用的人聘用的官差，衙役不犯错误也不能辞退，工资也不能减少，自然也就承担负担不起啊，最后不得已裁减官差，也只能从相对低级的弱势群体下手，结果就猜测一竹猜错了，以自成。

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接着昨天的话题，我们来探讨明朝灭亡的原因。

很多人都说，明朝灭亡是因为没钱了。而没钱的原因，则是由于纸币制度在明朝初年就被破坏了。所以，在明朝统治的大部分时期，所使用的货币都是硬通货白银。

明朝的白银主要来自于两个来源：一个是西班牙从美洲开采的白银，通过海上贸易输入中国；另一个则是沿海居民与日本进行走私贸易换取的日本白银。

在全球化和海上贸易的飞速发展下，白银的流入量持续增加，使得明朝在很长一段时间内，尽管机构臃肿、军队战斗力低下，但仍然不显得缺钱。

然而，到了明末崇祯时期，情况发生了变化。

有一种说法认为，这是由于小冰期导致农作物减产，进而引发一系列连锁反应，最终导致明朝财政收入锐减。

另一种说法则认为，是由于欧洲局势的变化，导致白银流入明朝的数量大幅减少。

乍一看，这些解释似乎都言之有理。但如果我们深入思考一下，就会发现事情并没有那么简单。

货币的本质是一种交换媒介。在自由交换的市场中，人们用自己的劳动成果去交换别人的劳动成果。而货币只是充当一个中间环节。

因此，货币的数量多少，并不会影响市场的交易活动。

在明朝晚期，白银输入减少的情况下，市场会自行调节，抬升白银的价格，从而维持交易的正常进行。

问题的关键在于，明朝官僚机构的低效和冗肿。官员的俸禄一成不变，无法降低。而随着时间的推移，官僚机构不断膨胀，导致财政负担越来越重。

为了解决财政问题，明朝政府采取了一系列措施，包括裁减官差、增加税收等。然而，这些措施都收效甚微。

最终，明朝政府在农民起义的浪潮中覆灭了。

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Following yesterday's topic, the Ming Dynasty fell, and the reason for the fall of the Ming Dynasty was lack of money. The reason for the lack of money is that the paper money system was ruined in the early Ming Dynasty. Therefore, during most of the Ming Dynasty, the currency used was hard currency silver. There are two main sources of silver: First, silver mined by Spain from the Americas was imported to China through sea trade; The other was Japanese silver that coastal residents traded with Japan for smuggling. Of course, after the opening of the sea ban, the latter channel has become a legitimate trade channel. The Japanese, who were once called "Japanese pirates," disappeared from history. The Weisuo Army, which was set up to fight against "Japanese pirates", was also transferred to the northern border to defend against the Mongols, which shows that many so-called social and national security problems were actually caused by the government's blocking of civilian trade.

With these two major sources of silver imports, the domestic production of silver as a mineral was not sufficient to support the monetary needs of such a large state as the Ming Empire. But with overseas input, it is enough to meet the domestic society's demand for currency. Coupled with the properties of silver as a hard currency, it is naturally more popular than indiscriminate banknotes such as Ming Bao banknotes. So soon even the court accepted only silver for taxes.

It can be said that the Ming Dynasty was at the beginning of the first era of globalization in human history, with the advent of European modernization and the advent of the age of Great navigation. Although the Ming government, like all feudal dynasties, became bloated and inefficient as it lasted longer, it consumed more and more financial resources. But thanks to globalization and the rapid development of maritime trade, silver inflows continue to increase. This led to a long period of time, although the large Ming Dynasty organization is overstaffed, the military combat effectiveness is low, but still can rely on the huge volume, does not appear to be very short of money, and even in the Wanli Emperor's successive wars, the Ming Dynasty can rely on the volume to crush the opponent, including the famous Wanli aid war.

But by the Chongzhen Dynasty at the end of the Ming Dynasty, the situation had changed. There are now many theories to explain the change. The more famous is the Little Ice Age, that is, in the Chongzhen period, the global climate entered the Little Ice Age, the temperature dropped and the crop production decreased. Although European countries had started the process of modernization at that time, the Industrial Revolution had not yet occurred, and countries around the world, including the Ming Dynasty, were still based on agriculture. As climate change led to reduced crop yields and lower living standards, the productivity level of the Ming Dynasty declined, as did the volume of trade with overseas.

In addition, the situation in Europe also changed, with Britain and the Netherlands emerging as new maritime powers and beginning to challenge Spain's dominance. In order to cope with these wars, they no longer allowed silver to be lost to the Eastern powers through trade, and began to strengthen the control over the export of silver, which greatly reduced the amount of silver obtained from overseas by the Ming Dynasty.

Another big source of silver was Japan, which entered the shogunate era after the chaos of the Warring States Period. The Tokugawa shogunate also closed Japan to the rest of the world in order to consolidate its power, and the flow of silver from Japan to China decreased significantly. The result was a sharp decline in Ming revenue.

If only explained from the above reasons, it seems that the Ming Dynasty was innocent, but was affected by natural disasters and changes in the international situation and eventually went to the end. But is it really that simple? If we think more deeply about the economics of money, this explanation is not sufficient.

Money is simply a medium of exchange, and in a free market everyone is essentially exchanging the fruits of their labor for the fruits of others' labor. The reason why people first use a commodity that everyone needs as an intermediary and then exchange for the desired commodity is that the products they want to exchange do not always correspond to each other. The amount of money does not affect the trading activities of the market, but only reflects the fluctuation of prices. Therefore, when the input of silver decreased in the late Ming Dynasty, all problems could be solved as long as the market was allowed to adjust itself and raise the price of silver.

The crux of the problem was the inefficiency of the Ming bureaucracy and the inability of officials to lower their salaries. Although the officials and yemen employed in the Ming Dynasty were incompetent, they could not lay off employees or reduce their salaries at will, so they could not afford exorbitant expenses. In the end, we had to dismiss junior officials, which intensified the conflict and led to a big mistake.